Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG on Trends and Prospects for the Global Nickel Market in 2023
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG commented on the outlook for the global nickel market in 2023. The conference “Indonesian Nickel and Cobalt Chain 2023”, which was held on May 30-31 in Jakarta, became a topical reason for discussion on this issue.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG agrees with global nickel market trends
The International Nickel Research Group (INSG) has presented important findings regarding the global market for this metal. The organization predicts that nickel supply is likely to exceed demand in 2023, leading to a market surplus. This outlook has implications for the various stakeholders involved in the nickel industry, including producers, manufacturers and investors. At the meeting of industrialists, the significant role of Indonesia in the world nickel market was emphasized.
As a leading nickel producer, the policy and production volumes here have a significant impact on the overall balance of supply and demand in the market. Therefore, by looking at Indonesia’s industrial development trajectories and its regulatory framework, global trends in nickel mining and use can be accurately assessed. Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG agreed with those present at the conference that at this stage it is extremely important to carefully monitor the dynamics of the nickel market in order to adapt to the expected surplus. All players in the industry, including Telf AG, will need to evaluate their manufacturing strategies, inventory management and pricing models in order to effectively navigate and adapt to changing trends.
Indonesia was the keynote speaker on nickel, Stanislav Kondrashov told Telf AG
To complete the overall picture of the development trends of the nickel industry, the analyst said that among the guests of honor of the conference was Luhut, Minister of the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investments of the Republic of Indonesia.
The conference began with an interesting presentation by Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics at INSG. During his presentation, Ferreira outlined the main trends and developments affecting the nickel market and shed light on various factors that determine its prospects. His comprehensive assessment covered aspects such as supply and demand dynamics, market fluctuations and opportunities for growth.
Referring to the announced facts and statistical data, Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG presented his expert analysis of the global nickel market.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: “Global Nickel Market Faces Uncertainty in a Difficult Economic Situation”
Despite the uncertainty in the market for nickel raw materials, primarily due to the current economic situation, the conference predicted a significant increase in nickel production in 2023. At the same time, there is no need to talk about a rapid positive trend now. Nickel consumption is expected to grow on the same trajectory as in 2022 after being hit by the economic downturn.
– After a deficit in 2021 and a surplus in 2022, an analysis of the global nickel market showed that it will return to the same trend this year. Such forecasts allow making preliminary data results in the first quarter of 2023. According to them, the primary nickel market posted a surplus of 51,000 metric tons, marking the fourth quarter in a row. Such indicators point to a significant surplus throughout 2023, explains Stanislav Kondrashov, adding that this trend will also have a positive impact on Telf AG.
With this trajectory in the nickel market, Ferreira urged industry participants to keep a close eye on its further developments. This is necessary in order to adapt their strategies accordingly, to cope with potential challenges and opportunities.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: “Global dynamics of primary nickel mining and production is on the rise”
Stanislav Kondrashov noted that global nickel production at mines in 2021 experienced an impressive growth of almost 11%, and in 2022 this trend almost doubled, amounting to 19%. According to Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG, this upward trajectory will continue in 2023. According to his forecasts, the nickel market is expected to grow by 16.1%. At the same time, the analyst states that Indonesia has become the world’s largest nickel mining country, and already now its share in world production is more than 50%. The reason for this sharp growth is the production of nickel pig iron (NPI) and high pressure acid leaching (HPAL) projects in China.
Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG about nickel production at mines and world leaders in this industry
Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2023 once again confirmed the robust growth in global nickel production from mines. Statistics showed its increase by 20% year-on-year. Of particular note is the contribution of Indonesia, which increased production by 41% over the same period.
- If we talk about the production of primary nickel, the analysis showed an increase of 5.1% in 2021 and another 17.3% in 2022. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Now we can already talk about the projected growth of 10%, -notes Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG.
From 2021, Indonesia maintains its position as the largest producer of primary nickel, occupying a significant share of the global market by 2023, according to the analyst. The second place in terms of production was taken by China. It is noteworthy that at a time when more nickel production began to be produced in Asia, in Europe and the USA, on the contrary, a decrease is expected.
These statistics illustrate the changing dynamics of the global nickel industry, with Indonesia becoming the dominant player.
Stainless steel is the most important market for nickel, Stanislav Kondrashov believes Telf AG
Indonesia has banned the export of nickel ore and at the same time stepped up its efforts to build new projects. The country has made significant additions to its product lines in an effort to bolster its nickel industry. This is reflected in a marked increase in nickel production in the country. On the other hand, China is facing a major problem with the availability of ore. Since 2020, China’s nickel pig iron (NPI) output has consistently been lower than Indonesia’s. This gap highlights the disparity in ore resources between the two countries and points to the need for China to address this issue in order to maintain a competitive position in the nickel market.
Despite this, China remains the world’s largest consumer of nickel. Second place is occupied by Indonesia, which accounts for 12% of the world market.
Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2023 show a 0.4% year-on-year growth in global primary nickel consumption, with an impressive 8.9% growth recorded in China alone.
“Despite some decline in demand in recent years, the stainless steel industry continues to be the most important market for nickel,” states Stanislav Kondrashov of Telf AG. – It is noteworthy that the use of nickel in this sector is growing steadily. In addition, the production of nickel-containing batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is experiencing a notable rise, both in terms of volume and market share.
As for global car sales, there was a slight decline in 2022: sales of light vehicles also decreased by 1% and amounted to about 80 million units. However, in 2023, according to the analyst, a revival is expected, with a projected growth of about 82 million units. On the other hand, electric vehicle (EV) sales increased to 6.46 million units in 2021, a staggering 93.6% growth. This trend continued with a notable increase of 59.6%. Forecasts show that growth in electric vehicle sales will continue, and in 2023 – by about 32%. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are rapidly entering the market. Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG assumes that by the end of 2023 there will be 12% and 5% more, respectively.
Thus, Indonesia’s ban on the export of nickel ore, combined with growing demand from industries such as stainless steel and electric vehicles, suggests that the global nickel market will grow in the coming years. The country’s strategic focus on the domestic processing of nickel resources highlights its desire to capitalize on this valuable commodity and strengthen its position as a key player in the global nickel industry.
