Manufacturing Declines as Business Performance Index Grew in September

Dike Onwuamaeze

Contraction in business activity in the cement sub-sector pushed the manufacturing sector to a sharp decline in September 2026 to 108.4 points from 120.4 points in the previous month.

This is according to the Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), a publication of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) that presents qualitative information on current business sentiment in the Nigerian economy and gauges expectations for short-term economic activity.  

The BCM’s current business performance showed that Nigeria’s business activity sustained expansionary momentum in September 2026 as its Current Business Performance Index (CBPI) jumped to 117.8 points from 112.7 that was recorded in August 2026.

It attributed the CBPI’s rapid improvement to expansion across various sectors, with trade recording the strongest performance.  

It said: “In September 2026, Nigeria’s business activity improved significantly, with the composite CBPI rising to 117.8 points from 112.7 points in August 2026 and 107.9 points in September 2025. Expansion was broad-based across sectors, with Trade recording the strongest performance. All sectors remained in expansion territory, although manufacturing and services recorded a slowdown in business activity compared with the previous month.”

The report, however, noted that, “business activity in manufacturing eased in September 2026, with the CBPI for the sector declining sharply to 108.4 points from120.4 points in the previous month. This moderation reflects subdued performance across most subsectors as performance varied across the three largest subsectors.

“While Food, Beverage & Tobacco, Textile and Apparel & Footwear remained in expansion territory, with the former recording a slow pace in business activity while the latter performed stronger relative to August 2026.  The third biggest subsector, Cement, moved into the contraction region in September 2026.”

“Business activity also contracted across many several subsectors, including Chemical & Pharmaceutical Products, Plastic & Rubber Products, Wood & Wood Products, Non-Metallic Products, Basic Metal, Iron & Steel, and Motor Vehicles & Assembly.

“On the other hand, Pulp, Paper and Paper Products remained in expansion territory, but the associated index reading was unchanged relative to the previous month, while Electrical & Electronics performed stronger and other manufacturing held steady around the 100-point neutral threshold,” it said.

The BCM said that many players in the manufacturing sector grappled with growth-inhibiting constraints, including energy shortages, inadequate supply of raw materials, high rental costs, credit squeeze, and infrastructure challenges, which heightened cost pressures and discouraged new investments during the month.

Nevertheless, business activity in agriculture expanded rapidly in September 2026, with the sector’s CBPI rising to 117.7 points from 110.5 points in the previous month. The index reading also represented a substantial increase from 107.3 points in September 2025.

It said, “This reflects sustained expansion in all subsectors except forestry and fishing.  The crop production and agro-allied subsectors recorded stronger expansion levels, while livestock registered slower business activity compared with August 2026. However, forestry and fishing entered the contraction territory in September 2026.

“Despite the overall improvement in business activity, many players within the agricultural sector faced persistent constraints, including inadequate financing, incessant power outages, insecurity, and infrastructure bottlenecks. These challenges continued to drive up the cost of doing business and constrained new investments during the month.”  

The BCM also showed that business activity in the CBPI for the service sector decelerated in September to 107.7 points from 112.4 points in August 2026.  

However, in September 2026, the trade sector recorded a significant improvement in business activity, with its CBPI rising sharply to 128.5 points from 112.0 points in August 2026.