2027: Why Adeola Stands Out as the Candidate to Beat in Ogun

Femi Ogbonnikan

There is, as yet, no compelling reason for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to review the list of governorship candidates for the 2027 general election.
This is without prejudice to the case instituted by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Ogun State, Oladipupo Adebutu, challenging his alleged exclusion from the final list recently released by the commission.

Adebutu and his counterpart in Gombe State, Professor Isa Pantami, were conspicuously missing from the portal. While the legal implications of their absence remain subject to judicial determination, the development has inevitably introduced another dimension to the unfolding political contest in Ogun State.

It is often said that the legitimacy of a candidate in an election is only as strong as the health of the political platform on which he seeks the people’s mandate.
This is particularly relevant to Adebutu’s predicament. His decision to seek the PDP ticket, despite the persistent crisis and internal contradictions within the party, suggests a failure to appreciate the political landmines that could undermine his ambition long before the electorate has an opportunity to decide his fate.

The consequences could be far-reaching.
Unless the court decides otherwise, Adebutu may not appear on the ballot, leaving his political future hanging in the balance.
For a politician who has invested considerable resources and political capital in pursuing the Ogun governorship, such an outcome would represent a serious setback.

This is a potential double whammy for the opposition. First, the contest could be significantly altered by the absence of a major opposition candidate.
Second, the PDP, already weakened by internal divisions and the struggle for political relevance, could find itself further disorganised, particularly if Adebutu’s camp loses its rallying point.
It would be another reminder that political ambition cannot thrive indefinitely on the misfortunes of others or the assumption that opponents can be weakened without strengthening one’s own political foundation.

However, there is nothing to gloat about. Adebutu’s alleged exclusion neither enhances nor diminishes Adeola’s credentials as a candidate. The APC flag bearer must be judged on his own record, political standing, experience, capacity to govern and the confidence he can inspire among the electorate.
The 2027 election is not an automatic victory waiting to happen. It is a contest that must be earned through convincing arguments, effective mobilisation and a demonstrable capacity to deliver.

On these considerations, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, occupies a particularly strong position.

Indeed, what distinguishes Adeola from several contenders is not merely his standing as the candidate of the ruling APC or the institutional advantage that comes with being backed by a party controlling the federal and state governments. It is the depth of his political experience, his understanding of legislative and executive processes, his extensive political network and the strategic influence he has acquired through years of public service.

Unlike a politician whose political relevance is largely confined to election cycles, Adeola has built a career through successive electoral contests and increasingly demanding responsibilities. His political journey, which began in the Lagos State House of Assembly, took him to the House of Representatives and subsequently to the Senate. He represented Alimosho Constituency in the Lagos Assembly for eight years, served Alimosho Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives and later represented Lagos West Senatorial District before moving to Ogun West. This progression is significant because it demonstrates an ability to operate at different levels of government and build political relationships across constituencies.

It also provides him with an understanding of governance that goes beyond campaign promises. Having spent years participating in lawmaking, budgetary processes, constituency representation and national policy discussions, Adeola understands the institutional machinery through which government programmes are conceived, funded and implemented. This experience is an important asset in a state as economically strategic and administratively complex as Ogun.

His current position as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations further strengthens this argument. The committee occupies a strategic position in the nation’s fiscal architecture, overseeing the budgetary process through which national priorities are translated into financial commitments. The position offers Adeola an intimate understanding of public finance, resource allocation, project financing and the relationship between policy objectives and available resources.

For a state seeking to consolidate its economic potential, these are not insignificant credentials. Ogun requires a governor who understands not only how to attract investments but also how to mobilise resources, establish priorities, manage competing demands and ensure that public expenditure produces measurable benefits. Adeola’s legislative experience and exposure to national budgetary processes give him a useful foundation for addressing these challenges.

More importantly, his position places him in a strategic relationship with the federal government and other national institutions. In a federation where states must constantly negotiate for federal interventions, infrastructure support, investment partnerships and policy cooperation, the ability to navigate the corridors of national decision-making is a considerable advantage.

Ogun is not an ordinary state. Its geographical proximity to Lagos, extensive industrial base, agricultural resources, border communities, expanding urban centres and international boundaries give it enormous economic possibilities.
Yet, converting these advantages into sustainable prosperity requires more than political popularity. It requires strategic planning, institutional understanding and the ability to connect state development priorities with opportunities at the federal level.

This is where Adeola’s experience becomes particularly relevant.

Another factor that distinguishes him is his political reach beyond Ogun West, the senatorial district he currently represents. Although his emergence from Ogun West gives the district a historic opportunity to produce the next governor, his political ambition must necessarily be statewide.
His years in Lagos politics, combined with his subsequent political engagement in Ogun, have provided him with networks and relationships that extend beyond a single constituency.

His electoral calculations, therefore, are not limited to the traditional political strongholds of Ogun West. The real test is his ability to consolidate support in Ogun Central and Ogun East while maintaining the enthusiasm of his home base.
His legislative profile, party structure and relationships with political stakeholders provide a platform for pursuing that objective.

There is also the question of political acceptability. Winning a governorship election in Ogun requires a candidate capable of appealing to different interests, communities and political tendencies.
The state has a sophisticated electorate with competing expectations shaped by its commercial importance, educational heritage, industrial development and complex political history. A candidate must demonstrate the capacity to bring these interests together.

Adeola’s political experience across Lagos and Ogun gives him an opportunity to build such a coalition. His task is to translate his existing political relationships into a broad-based movement that cuts across the three senatorial districts, local governments, traditional institutions, professional groups, business communities and the youth population.

His emergence as the APC candidate also places him in a position to benefit from the party’s existing political structures. But party machinery alone cannot win an election.
The APC must convince voters that its candidate represents continuity in areas where the administration has performed creditably and a credible opportunity for improvement where expectations remain unmet.

This distinction is important because the 2027 election will inevitably become a referendum on the direction of Ogun State. Voters will assess the achievements of the outgoing administration, the quality of its infrastructure, its economic policies, its handling of social welfare and the prospects of sustaining ongoing development projects.

Adeola must therefore demonstrate how his experience and legislative influence can complement the development agenda already established in the state. His argument should not simply be that he belongs to the ruling party, but that he possesses the experience, institutional access and political capacity to consolidate existing gains while introducing fresh ideas to address emerging challenges.

The economy will be another decisive consideration. Ogun’s development prospects are increasingly tied to industrial expansion, infrastructure, agriculture, transportation, technology and private-sector investment. The state has the potential to become one of Nigeria’s leading economic centres, but that potential must be supported by reliable infrastructure, a predictable business environment, efficient public institutions and policies that create employment opportunities.

Adeola’s legislative background offers him an opportunity to articulate a development strategy that connects these sectors. His experience in national budgeting should enable him to approach the state’s financial challenges with a clearer appreciation of revenue generation, expenditure management, capital investment and fiscal sustainability.

Furthermore, his political relationship with President Bola Tinubu and the APC leadership could become an important factor in attracting federal attention to Ogun’s development priorities. While such relationships cannot substitute for sound governance, they can facilitate cooperation between the state and federal governments, particularly in areas requiring large-scale infrastructure investment and national policy coordination.

However, the most compelling argument for Adeola must ultimately be about the people. The electorate is becoming increasingly demanding. Political loyalty cannot indefinitely replace performance, and impressive political connections will mean little if they do not translate into better living conditions.
Roads, schools, hospitals, employment opportunities, affordable transportation, agricultural development and improved security remain central to the expectations of ordinary citizens.

Adeola must therefore take his campaign beyond political endorsements and elite consensus. He must explain how his administration intends to improve the quality of life across Ogun, including communities that have yet to experience the full benefits of the state’s economic expansion. His legislative experience should be translated into a practical programme of governance that addresses the needs of urban and rural communities alike.

The strength of his candidacy will also depend on his ability to manage the expectations of the APC family. The party’s nomination is only the beginning of the political journey. Reconciliation, inclusion and effective mobilisation will be essential to preventing internal grievances from becoming opportunities for the opposition. A governorship candidate must be capable of carrying the party along, not merely commanding its ticket.

This is particularly important in Ogun, where political alignments and local interests can significantly influence electoral outcomes. Adeola must demonstrate that his candidacy represents an opportunity for all tendencies within the APC and not the exclusive political project of a particular group. The wider the coalition he builds, the stronger his prospects of translating party dominance into electoral victory.

For the opposition, the challenge is equally formidable. It must present a candidate with sufficient political credibility, organisational strength and a convincing alternative development agenda. If Adebutu eventually fails to secure his place on the ballot, the opposition will have to contend with the additional difficulty of reorganising its political machinery and convincing its supporters to rally behind another candidate.
But even if he returns to the contest through judicial intervention, Adeola’s electoral prospects will still have to be determined by the quality of the campaign and the choices of the electorate.

The lesson from the unfolding development is that political fortunes are shaped not only by the strength of individual ambitions but also by the stability of the platforms on which those ambitions rest. Adebutu’s predicament, if sustained by the courts, would illustrate the danger of underestimating the consequences of party instability. But it would be equally misleading to assume that the difficulties of an opponent automatically translate into victory.

Adeola’s advantage, therefore, must be located in the strength of his own political credentials. He has accumulated legislative experience, developed national political relationships, occupied a strategic position in the country’s budgetary process and established a political presence that gives him a considerable head start in the unfolding contest.
These are significant assets that distinguish him from a number of those seeking the same office.

Ultimately, the 2027 Ogun governorship election will be decided by the electorate, not by political calculations in Abuja, the fortunes of opposition parties or the outcome of internal party disputes alone.
Adeola must earn the confidence of the people through a clear vision, credible commitments and a compelling demonstration of his readiness to govern.

But on the strength of his experience, institutional standing, political networks and the opportunities available to the ruling party, he enters the race as a formidable contender and arguably the candidate to beat. The challenge before him is to convert these advantages into a statewide electoral coalition and convince Ogun voters that his candidacy represents not just a continuation of political power, but an opportunity to accelerate the state’s development.

*Ogbonnikan writes from Okeagbede, in Imeko-Afon LGA of Ogun state