Three Years of Tinubu: Four Successes, Four Failures

Obinna Chima

Yesterday, May 29, 2026, marked exactly three years since President Bola Tinubu assumed office as Nigeria’s 16th President.

While in those three years, the President, his political party, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and his supporters can point to bold structural reforms and improved fiscal numbers, for millions of Nigerians, the more pressing question is whether those gains have translated into lower prices, greater security, and a better quality of life.

The gap between his government’s reform initiatives and its impact on ordinary citizens lies at the heart of the Tinubu-at-three debate.

While supporters and loyalists such as his spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, strongly believe that President Bola Tinubu has done impressive work to place the country on the path of stability and transformation, the journey of the last 36 months has been difficult for the ordinary Nigerian who continue to grapple with rising prices, declining purchasing power, insecurity and the daily struggle to make ends meet despite the government’s reform efforts.

So, here are four things that the President, who is seeking re-election, has gotten right in the past three years:

Fuel Subsidy Removal

From his “fuel subsidy is gone” statement on his inauguration day, in which he further clarified that the 2023 budget made no provision for subsidy payment, it was clear that Tinubu was out to end a controversial policy that successive governments since the eighties could not address due to vested interests. To show you how damaging it was, as of the first half of 2023, payment for the fuel subsidy alone had risen to about N3.3 trillion. The policy largely benefited the rich and hurt the economy badly, as it was a major drain on Nigeria’s revenue. The opacity surrounding the policy was the major reason Nigerians wanted it to be phased out.

Foreign Exchange Reform

The unification of Nigeria’s multiple exchange-rate windows was another major structural reform initiated by President Tinubu in the last 36 months. Before 2023, Nigeria operated an exchange rate system that was characterised by significant disparities between official and parallel market rates, which in every market creates opportunities for speculation, round-tripping and capital flight. But the unification of the rates has restored greater transparency, opportunities for arbitrage have been reduced, and stability has been seen in the past three years. The administration also cleared Nigeria’s foreign exchange backlog, estimated at over $7 billion. Investors have generally welcomed these moves and it has also earned the country positive ratings from the global rating agencies.

Tax Reform Agenda

Another achievement of President Tinubu’s administration in the last three years was the ability to push through one of the biggest tax overhauls in decades, consolidating multiple tax laws and restructuring tax administration. The reform is expected to support long-term national development and bolster the country’s economic resilience. The new tax system is a vital tool for sustaining economic growth, attracting investment, and ensuring fairness across various sectors. A major obstacle to growth over the years was the long-standing weaknesses within Nigeria’s tax administration, which included issues such as multiple taxation, weak compliance, informal economic activities, and inconsistent enforcement. These challenges hindered businesses and created a perception of unfairness among taxpayers, which the new system is expected to address.

Student Loan

President Tinubu signed the Student Loan Bill into law in his first 30 days in office. The launch of the scheme through NELFUND, was a notable policy intervention aimed at expanding access to educational opportunities and reducing exclusion.  As of May 2026, more than 450,000 indigent students across federal and state tertiary institutions have benefited from interest-free educational loans tied to future employment-based repayment structures. This initiative has helped reduce the financial barriers for beneficiaries.

Despite these notable policy initiatives and promises of ‘Renewed Hope’ the administration has struggled to ease the burden on citizens, and here are four areas where the President has failed:

Worsening Insecurity

One area President Bola Tinubu has failed to address is the worsening insecurity, kidnappings, and abduction of schoolchildren, as well as mass killings. Insecurity, especially abduction of citizens for ransom, which previously was confined largely to a part of the country, in the last 36 months has spread to areas which in the past never experienced such levels of violent attacks, with the nation descending into a frightening state in which citizens feel abandoned to criminal violence and terrorists. Moving from one part of the country to another today is a nightmare because of the fear of bandits; communities are under siege, schools are no longer safe, children are being abducted, teachers are being murdered, and families are traumatised. Farmers have abandoned their farmlands, which has had serious consequences on food security, pushing up prices and worsening the hardship faced by millions of Nigerians.

Cost-of-Living Crisis and Rising Poverty

This is the biggest political challenge of the administration. Fuel prices, transport fares, electricity tariffs and food prices rose sharply after the subsidy removal and naira devaluation. Even where macro indicators improved, the living conditions of many ordinary Nigerians have worsened. Three years into these sweeping reforms, the populace is getting restive and uncomfortable with the unintended consequences of the policies. Nigerians are already asking for the benefits, as the cost of living was further worsened by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.  Households and operators of businesses have been stretched financially, emotionally, and psychologically.  Salaries have not kept pace with inflation, while small businesses are struggling to stay afloat amid rising input costs.  Families are making difficult trade-offs between essentials, going for low-cost substitute goods and have embraced ‘sachetised economy,’ as a result of the structural change in consumer behaviour.

Power Supply Deteriorates

Despite promises of power-sector reform, many Nigerians still experience unreliable electricity and high tariffs. The immediate past Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, who was in charge of the sector for three years before he resigned to pursue his failed gubernatorial ambition, was obviously a square peg in A round hole, as electricity supply deteriorated under his watch. Persistent grid collapses have been the story in the past three years, forcing many Nigerians to rely on alternatives such as generators and solar power. Worsening tariff shortfalls, implementation delays, and changing realities in the country’s electricity sector recently led to an agreement between the federal government and the World Bank to cancel about $717.7 million in undisbursed financing under the Power Sector Recovery Operation (PSRO) programme.

Public Perception Gap

One of the biggest challenges facing President Bola Tinubu’s administration is the widening perception gap. This disconnect is even worsened by growing public concerns around corruption, wasteful government spending and the optics of leadership. At a time when citizens are repeatedly urged to make sacrifices and tighten their belts, public frustration is intensifying over reports of large entourages on foreign trips and other non-essential spending. Even where such spending is officially justified, the perception of waste fuels distrust and weakens confidence in the government’s message of shared sacrifice.

Conclusion

Going forward, sustaining public support requires more than articulating long-term benefits. It demands delivering real-world gains that reassure citizens. Therefore, President Tinubu must now match the boldness at which his reforms were initiated with results, as the country gradually enters into another election cycle. Emphasis must now focus on translating reforms into tangible economic outcomes.  Nigerians are eager to feel the benefits of the pain they endured yesterday as evidence that the sacrifices they made are already paving the way for a more prosperous tomorrow.