As APC’s Consensus Politics Provokes Discontent

Ejiofor Alike writes that as internal crises and personal ambitions continue to rob the opposition parties the chances of victory in the 2027 general election, the ruling All Progressives Congress’ victory will also be hinged on its capacity to manage the fallout of its ongoing selection of its candidates through consensus, which has provoked the ire of aspirants in Ogun, Nasarawa, Gombe, Adamawa, Oyo and other states

The opposition parties seeking to unseat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election have continued to brighten Tinubu’s chances of victory with their inability to unite against the ruling party.

This politics of self-interest being played by the opposition figures manifested further recently when the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general election, Mr. Peter Obi, and his former counterpart in the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, defected from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

These latest political realignments among opposition figures have weakened the ADC’s capacity to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2027 polls.

Bauchi State Governor, Senator Bala Mohammed, also announced his defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).

With Obi and Kwankwaso joining the NDC and Mohammed defecting to APM, the opposition parties have become more fractured than ever before, weakening their capacity to challenge the ruling APC.

The fractured opposition, analysts say, has cleared the coast for President Tinubu and the APC to emerge victorious in the 2027 polls.

However, the ruling party appears not to be insulated from internal crisis as the selection of its candidates for next year’s elections through consensus has provoked the ire of aspirants in Ogun, Nasarawa, Gombe, Adamawa, Oyo and other states.

Section 84 (2) of the Electoral Act 2022 recognises direct primaries and consensus as methods for the nomination of candidates by political parties.

In direct primaries, every registered member of a political party has the right to vote directly for his or her preferred aspirant, unlike in consensus method where a candidate may emerge if all cleared aspirants provide written consent to step down.

However, even if one aspirant refuses to provide written consent, the party must revert to a direct primary.

It is on this ground that many aspirants kicked against the emergence of consensus candidates of APC in many states.

During an enlarged stakeholders’ meeting presided over by Governor Muhammadu Yahaya of Gombe State, the state APC had unveiled Dr Jamilu-Isiyaku Gwamna as its consensus governorship candidate.

The party had also anointed a deputy commissioner of police (DCP), Mohammed Ahmadu Deba (rtd.) as its consensus candidate for Gombe Central Senatorial District’s seat that is currently occupied by Senator Muhammad Danjuma Goje.

However, both Goje and a former Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Professor Isa Pantami, who is aspiring to succeed the governor, have rejected the purported consensus arrangements.

This rejection is an indication of absence of written consents from all the aspirants as required by the law.

In a statement issued by Goje’s aide, Mr Saidu Muazu Kumo, the Senator, who is seeking a record fifth term in the Senate, said the purported consensus meeting involved only Governor Yahaya and a limited number of aspirants, “and did not include all duly recognised aspirants within the party.”

Similarly, in a statement issued by Professor Suleiman Mohammed on behalf of supporters and members of the Pantamiyya Movement, Pantami insisted that no valid consensus could be reached without the involvement and consent of all aspirants who had obtained and completed their nomination forms.

The loyalists of former Ogun State Governor and Senator representing Ogun East, Gbenga Daniel, have also rejected the purported endorsement of Governor Dapo Abiodun as the APC consensus candidate for the 2027 Ogun East Senate race.

Addressing journalists at the Sagamu GRA private residence of Daniel, the spokesperson of the group, retired General Olumuyiwa Okunowo, said the meeting tagged “Ogun East APC caucus meeting,” during which Abiodun was announced as the party’s consensus candidate, was a gathering organised exclusively by the governor’s loyalists.

In Nasarawa State, the immediate-past governor and North Central Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, has claimed that he was not consulted by Governor Abdullahi Sule, before announcing his preferred candidate for the 2027 governorship election.

Governor Sule had announced the current Senator representing Nasarawa West Senatorial District, Aliyu Ahmed Wadada, as his preferred successor.

Speaking with journalists in Lafia, shortly after a courtesy visit to his residence by a former Inspector-General of Police, Mohamed Abubakar Adamu, who is also APC governorship aspirant, the former governor described Governor Sule’s pronouncement as premature, warning that such a move could undermine due process within the party.

Reacting to Al-Makura’s claims, the governor accused his predecessor of “overdoing it” by trying to choose his successor. 

“As an individual, he had a preferred aspirant. And he has a right to have a preferred aspirant. And his preferred aspirant may not be my preferred aspirant.

“But to the point where now you say, I will select an aspirant for you to take over from you. I think that’s overdoing it,” the governor said.

In Oyo State, a former Minister of Power and governorship aspirant in the state, Adebayo Adelabu, has also rejected the endorsement of Senator Sharafadeen Alli by some APC leaders as a consensus candidate for the 2027 race.

Crisis is also brewing in the ruling party in Adamawa State following last week’s announcement by Governor Ahmadu Fintiri that he would name his successor soon.

Receiving one of the governorship aspirants in Yola, Fintiri said: “I also have the right also to appoint and anoint my candidate. And I’m looking at all the variables, and by next week I will meet my candidate now.”

With this pronouncement, many aspirants in the state are said to be planning for a showdown.

A former Cross River State governor, Prof. Ben Ayade’s withdrawal from the race for the Cross River North senatorial seat in compliance with a “request” from President Bola Tinubu, did also not go down well with the former governor.

In a lengthy statement issued recently, Ayade, however, said he yielded to Tinubu’s request despite his sense of “ill-treatment” and deep disappointment over the decision.

In Kwara State, more than 10 governorship aspirants purchased APC forms to challenge any consensus candidate anointed by Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRasaq.

 In Yobe State, the former Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba, submitted his APC governorship nomination forms and vowed not to step down for any consensus candidate.

Benue State Governor Hyacinth Alia’s move to emerge as consensus candidate is also being challenged by Mathias Byuan, who has vowed not to step down for the governor.

As lack of unity continues to rob the opposition parties of chances of victory in the 2027 general election, political analysts believe that APC’s victory is also hinged on the ability of the party to successfully manage the fallout of its consensus politics.