The Coalition That Became A Collision

REUBEN ABATI

The most remarkable incident in Nigeria in less than a week, is all things considered how a political coalition has turned out as a collision, literally and figuratively, in the lead up to the 2027 general elections. On Saturday, April 25, 2026, there was a meeting, the National Summit of Opposition Leaders, hosted in Ibadan by Governor of Oyo State, Seyi Makinde (PDP) and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (ADC chieftain) at which about 14 registered political parties out of 21 Nigerian political parties resolved to field a single Presidential candidate to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and its sitting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu about whom there had been allegations of seeking to impose a one-man rule, and a one-party state on the country. In the communique from the summit, the opposition leaders promised to (i) come up with a single presidential candidate, (ii) resist the idea of a one-party state and work as a united front against such a plan; (iii) insist on the removal or resignation  of the current INEC Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan on the grounds of bias; (iv) demand a review of the Electoral Act 2026; (v) demand an extension of party primaries till July 2026, and (vi) insist on the release of all political detainees. There were key political figures in attendance at the Summit.

There were others who stayed away as well, including the APGA, the Action African Congress (AAC) led by Omoyele Sowore, who described the coalition as a gathering of recycled and failed politicians, and the pro-Tinubu Wike faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The coalition looked formidable on paper but its politics looked uncertain given the number of persons who wanted to be the flagbearer of the group, and the many problems of the opposition parties which raised doubts about the possibility of the emergence of a sole opposition Presidential candidate. The other challenges were the many court cases hanging on the necks of the key partners to the coalition particularly the PDP and the ADC. If the ruling party was bothered, it expressed itself in the shape of an outright dismissal of the conspiracy against it, as its spokespersons launched a barrage of attacks on the summit. They were soon joined in that dismissal by groups such as the Wike faction of the PDP, and the Nafiu Bala Gombe, Dumebi Kachikwu factions of the ADC. The prospects of the coalition reached a turning point with the delivery of the judgments of the Supreme Court in the matters involving both the PDP and the David Mark-led faction of the ADC on Thursday, April 30. The two panels at the Supreme Court raised fine points of law, upheld its appellate and inherent jurisdiction, as a court of law and as a court of public policy, and spoke with the wisdom of Solomon, but ended up, on both sides, in causing more problems that threw both the ADC and the PDP into disarray.

In the matter of the ADC, the 5-man panel led by Justice Mohammed Garba, delivering the lead judgement held that the appellate court was right in its March 12 ruling to have dismissed the appeal of Senator David Mark for lacking in merit and for ordering the accelerated hearing of the original matter at the trial court. Justice Garba however faulted the appellate court for going ahead to issue a preservative order, after striking out the appeal for being incompetent. The Supreme Court berated the Appellate Court, and set aside the order of a status quo ante bellum which it described as “unnecessary, unwarranted and improper.” The ADC broke out into jubilation, especially as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which had derecognized David Mark, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and the faction’s National Legal Adviser, Professor Oserheimen Osunbor, promptly restored the names to its website but the David Mark faction celebrated too, early too soon for in the background, the Bala Gombe faction also interpreted the judgment to mean its own victory. There had also been another judgment from the court of Justice Joyce Abdulmalik of the Federal High Court, Abuja, which in the matter of Norman Obinna and 6 ors. vs David Mark and ors. which nullified the emergence of the David Mark faction as interim working committee of the ADC, state congresses and by extension the ADC Convention of April 14 at the Rainbow Event Centre in Abuja.   With the unresolved original matter in the court of Justice Emeka Nwite, which was bypassed by David Mark, and to which it has been returned to respond to the original motion on notice and the outcome of the matter before Justice Abdulmalik, it was clear that there were still hurdles ahead of the David Mark-led faction.

Justice Stephen Adah delivered the lead majority judgement in the PDP matter, which was decided 3-2. The minority dissenting judgement was delivered by Justice Haruna Tsammani and Justice Abubakar Umar and this was clearly a case in which the minority opinion is as instructive as the majority judgement. The majority judgement nullified the Nov 15 -16, 2025 Convention of the PDP in Ibadan, Oyo state on the grounds that the appellants abused court process by going forum shopping to get a favourable order from a court of coordinate jurisdiction whereas there was a subsisting order from the court of Justice Peter Lifu in the case filed by Alhaji Sule Lamido, restraining the parties from proceeding with the Ibadan Convention. According to Justice Adah, “when a party refuses to obey the orders of a court, he must not be heard by the court.” Sound logic. By the same measure, the court also ruled that the cross appeal by Senator Samuel Anyanwu, on the question of the authentic National Secretaryship of the PDP was lacking in merit and hence, dismissed. Their Lordships Tsammani and Umar dissented, noting that the apex court lacked the jurisdiction to inquire into internal affairs of the PDP and that there was not enough ground to dismiss the party’s Ibadan Convention. Justice Tsammani faulted his colleagues for raising a matter, suo motu, when none of the parties raised it. Justice Umar observed that the sale of nomination forms does not fall within the categories of issues that a court could entertain and the Federal High Court had no jurisdiction to do so.

Thus, the ADC was returned to the Federal High Court. The PDP was left with a leadership vacuum, without a recognized leadership, even if Nyesom Wike thinks otherwise, with the PDP now talking about the Board of Trustees (BOT) assuming control and a new national caretaker committee to be constituted. Both parties are now racing against time to meet INEC deadlines. The Supreme Court may have addressed legal issues such as jurisdiction, the sanctity of court orders, Section 83 of the Electoral Act 2026 on the courts and internal affairs of political parties, and whether or not the court can raise matters not before it, suo motu, but the court did not pronounce any clear victories.  But what next for the ADC and the PDP? What would be the impact of the Supreme Court judgements? What we see is how the alliances on both sides have been thrown into disarray and how the coalition of opposition forces have been thrown into a collision, with attendant confusion. The ADC and the PDP are accidented vehicles, with the injured victims, blaming others, notably either the ruling party or imaginary cartels within the judiciary purportedly protecting the interest of the administration. A preliminary climax, definitely there would be more episodes ahead, was reached over the weekend when two of the chieftains of the ADC, in the David-Mark-led faction – Mr. Peter Obi (formerly of APGA, PDP, Labour Party, ADC) and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso (formerly of the SDP, APC, PDP, NNPP and ADC) , suddenly jumped ship, wisely out of fear, and defected to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) led by countryman Senator Seriake Dickson. 

Originally founded in 2017, but eventually registered in 2026 by court order, the NDC is the rescue ship in which Obi and Kwankwaso have now found accommodation just in time. The NDC is scheduled to hold its maiden National Convention on Saturday, May 9, having held its ward congresses on May 1 and May 2. The party’s motto is “Service to the People.” Overnight, Peter Obi and Kwankwaso have transformed the NDC into a major opposition vehicle. The membership of the party has since swelled to over 10 million and may even grow exponentially in the coming weeks. What is not certain is whether or not either Kwankwaso or Peter Obi would emerge as the party’s flagbearer for the 2027 general elections. OK? Or KO? The days ahead would determine that. But there is no doubt that both politicians have brought a new momentum and pace to the NDC. Peter Obi brings with him an army of followers inherited from the 2023 elections in which he came third overall, and a social media-based Obidient movement. Kwankwaso is also a formidable politician, leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement with a cult-like following in Kano and Kebbi states.  The spokesperson of the APC, Felix Morka has dismissed Peter Obi as “a political rolling stone that gathers no moss…roaming again in search of free, uncontested, unchallenged presidential ticket… never willing to remain to build any party… fare thee well, Nigeria’s inconsolable political drifter…” Morka’s assessment is harshly unfair. In rolling from one party to the other, Peter Obi has gained significant experience, and whatever anyone says, he is a major player in Nigeria’s contemporary politics. The Obidient movement alone places him on a pedestal in the assessment of youth culture and political mobilization and should he choose to write his memoirs tomorrow, he has a story to tell. He has already said that in every political party that he left, he was pushed. Whether he was pushed or he chose to jump out of the ADC, it is within his fundamental rights under the Constitution to do so. There is no law in Nigeria that ties any politician down to any political party, ideology or space. How would the life-boat called NDC fare? There are already speculations that it may also run into troubled waters if not a storm like ADC and the PDP before it. This however is the relatively young party’s finest moment and a moment in the sun for its leader, Seriake Dickson (former AD, PDP, former Governor, Bayelsa state, 2012 -2020, Senator, Bayelsa West), who has risen to become one of the major players in Nigeria’s 2027 process. The NDC is also a wake-up call for the ruling APC party, a signal that the competitive spirit of Nigerian politics would be difficult to suppress. In the face of this, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has chosen to play Rose Garden politics. He plays it calm. He projects an aura of stability; he jets off on a three-nation foreign trip – France, Kenya and Rwanda, but what the emerging calculus at home projects realistically is that the APC has a lot more work to do. 

On its website, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) advertises itself as a party that promises “to put the needs of the people first in all we do, to govern with integrity and deliver measurable results that improve the lives of citizens, with a commitment to environmental justice, human rights, security, the rule of law, the empowerment of youth and women, building human capacity, inclusive opportunity, industrialization, true federalism, affordable housing, national infrastructure, transportation and transparency and accountability. These are at best familiar slogans. The party must post-haste come up with a detailed manifesto on all the key questions at play, in a language accessible to the electorate to project brand, and mobilize the electorate. The leaders must watch out for the usual headwinds in Nigerian politics by ensuring unity within the party and internal democracy. It is not surprising that at least one group, the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) led by Dr. Umar Ardo has serviced notice that it would proceed to the Appeal Court to argue that the NDC should not have been registered by INEC because it was not part of the 2025 screening process, never submitted a formal application and was not shortlisted.   Senator Dickson has since dismissed this as a fake propaganda. Another group, a civil society organization, the Nigeria Democratic Rights Advocacy (NDRA) is also raising questions about an alleged violation of Section 77 of the Electoral Act 2026 by Reuben Egwuaba, who emerged as Legal Adviser of the NDC by court order while he was also the Legal Adviser of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM). The NDRA says it is seeking clarifications. Other critics of the newly emergent NDC opine that the best that the party can achieve is to become a safe haven for internally displaced politicians – the equivalent of Nigeria’s poorly managed IDP camps.

It is now up to the leaders of the NDC to make sure that they do not end up as an IDP camp but as a bankable alternative. The new joiners should resist the temptation to think that the party’s presidential ticket is their entitlement, otherwise they will meet in the NDC what they ran away from in the ADC or worse.