Gulf War: Food Insecurity Looms in Nigeria, Other African Countries, IMF Warns

*Urges deepening intra-African trade 

*Report: War, drought, aid shortfall to fuel hunger in 2026

Nume Ekeghe

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that food insecurity could worsen sharply across Nigeria and other African countries in the wake of economic disruptions triggered by the Gulf War, casting a shadow over the region’s recent recovery gains.
This comes as the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises predicted that conflict, drought and shrinking aid would keep global hunger at critical levels this year, with food insecurity expected to worsen in some of the world’s most ‌fragile countries.
In a blog post, the IMF’s Director of the African Department, Abebe Aemro Selassie, said Sub-Saharan Africa entered 2026 on a relatively strong footing, but was now facing mounting risks that could derail its fragile progress.

He noted that the region recorded its fastest growth in a decade in 2025, expanding by 4.5 per cent, supported by easing macroeconomic imbalances, improved investment flows, and a broadly favourable global backdrop.
Several economies, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Rwanda, grew above six per cent, while inflation moderated to about 3.5 per cent and public debt levels began to edge lower, reflecting sustained reform efforts.

 However, that momentum was now under threat, he stated: “A prolonged conflict could further inflate commodity prices, trigger a risk-off episode in global markets, and force abrupt fiscal adjustments in countries with large refinancing needs. In a severe downside scenario, as detailed in the IMF’s latest, regional output this year could fall 0.6 percent below pre-war forecasts, with oil importers suffering the most, and inflation could surge by an additional 2.4 percentage points.
“The human costs are equally stark. Food insecurity looms large: the region remains acutely vulnerable to food-price shocks, and the war has already driven up fertilizer and shipping costs.

“A 20 percent rise in international food prices could push more than 20 million people into food insecurity and leave 2 million children under age 5 acutely malnourished. Climate shocks intensify the strain the recent floods in Mozambique and Madagascar serve as a reminder of the region’s deep vulnerability to weather disruptions.”
The IMF official stressed that, beyond immediate policy responses, structural reforms remained critical to cushioning the shock and strengthening resilience over the medium term. Central to this, it stated, was the need to deepen intra-African trade and accelerate regional integration.

He added: “Even as policymakers grapple with the immediate shock, the medium-term reform agenda cannot wait. The premium on accelerating structural reforms—to boost growth and resilience—is now even higher. Improving the business climate, strengthening governance, and reforming state-owned enterprises, especially in energy, transport, and telecommunications, can help attract investment and lift productivity.
“Deepening regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area could bolster supply-chain resilience and expand markets for local producers.”

 The Fund also warned that declining foreign aid was stripping away a critical buffer for many vulnerable economies. It noted that 2025 marked a sharp structural break in aid flows, with cuts falling most heavily on fragile states and threatening essential services particularly healthcare in countries with limited alternative financing options.

On debt in the region, he stated: “Debt vulnerabilities are also rising. More than one-third of countries are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress. In 21 countries, fiscal deficits exceed the levels that are needed to stabilise debt.

“Rising interest bills and dwindling concessional finance are inflating debt-service burdens and crowding out essential development spending.

“In some cases, growing reliance on domestic borrowing has deepened ties between government debt and bank balance sheets, raising the specter of financial instability.”

Meanwhile, the 10th edition of the Global Report on Food Crises, published by a coalition of development and humanitarian organisations, has stated that acute hunger had doubled over the past decade, with two famines declared last year for the first time in the report’s history – in Gaza and Sudan.

In total, 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025, while 1.4 million people faced ⁠catastrophic conditions in parts of Haiti, Mali, Gaza, South Sudan, Sudan and Yemen, Reuters quoted the report to have revealed.

In 2025 alone, 35.5 million children worldwide were acutely malnourished, including nearly 10 million suffering from severe acute malnutrition.

Looking at this year, the report stated that severity levels remained critical, with only Haiti expected to escape from the worst “catastrophic” band thanks to a slight improvement in security and increased humanitarian aid.

“We are no longer seeing just temporary shocks, but persistent shocks over time,” said Alvaro Lario, head of the U.N. International Fund for Agricultural Development, which helps draw up the annual report.

“The main message is that food insecurity is not an isolated issue anymore, but is putting pressure on global stability,” he told Reuters.

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ‌has ⁠added to the alarm, Lario said, warning that prolonged disruption to energy and fertilizer trade could spill over into global food markets and worsen hunger in import-dependent countries already in crisis.

“Even if the conflict in the Middle East were to end right now, we know that a lot of the food price shocks and inflation will happen in the next six months,” he said.

Even before the added stress ⁠of this latest war, West Africa and the Sahel looked likely to remain under heavy pressure this year from conflict and persistent inflation, particularly in Nigeria, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

Nigeria alone is projected to see one of the largest increases in food insecurity in 2026, ⁠with 4.1 million more people expected to face acute hunger.

In East Africa, failed rains across much of the Horn of Africa are expected to deepen suffering in Somalia and Kenya, where drought, insecurity, high food prices and reduced humanitarian aid are ⁠likely to drive worsening conditions.

The report also warned that humanitarian and development financing for food sectors in crisis fell sharply in 2025 and is projected to decline further.

Humanitarian food-sector funding is estimated to have dropped by some 39% last year from 2024 levels, while development assistance contracted by at least 15 percent.

JUMP

FG Increases Civil Servants’ Allowances

*Govt approves upward review of DTA, estacode, book allowance, others  

*Introduces new exit benefit scheme for retiring govt employees

Onyebuchi Ezigbo and Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The federal government yesterday unveiled a broad package of welfare enhancements for public workers, anchored on a N10 billion housing initiative spearheaded by the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), improved allowances, as well as a new retirement benefit structure.
This comes as the Managing Director of the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund (NSITF), Oluwaseun Faleye, expressed the commitment of the Fund to the Employee Compensation Scheme (ESC) for the benefit of Federal Civil Servants.
Speaking during a press briefing in Abuja, the Head of the Civil Service of the Federation (HoCSF), Esther Walson-Jack, said the reforms in workers’ allowances were a deliberate shift from rhetoric to measurable policy action, signalling President Bola Tinubu’s commitment to placing workers’ welfare at the centre of governance.
According to Walson-Jack, central to the package was the approval of an Exit Benefit Scheme, designed to provide retiring treasury-funded civil servants under the contributory pension system with a payout equivalent to their total annual emoluments. This, she said, is intended to address longstanding concerns around post-retirement financial vulnerability within the public service.
She also outlined the operationalisation of the ECS, a structured social protection mechanism covering work-related injuries, occupational diseases, disability and death. The scheme, she said, complements existing life assurance provisions and expands the safety net available to government workers and their families.
In a move targeted at professional development, the government also approved full payment of Duty Tour Allowance (DTA) for civil servants attending training programmes at designated federal institutions, regardless of travel requirements. The intervention, she explained, is expected to remove cost barriers associated with capacity building across the service.

Beyond training-related benefits, Walson-Jack announced additional revisions covering estacode, book allowance and other entitlements, to reflect prevailing economic realities and reduce out-of-pocket expenses incurred during official assignments.

On Housing, which she identified as a major welfare gap, she announced the approval of a N10 billion housing loan scheme to be implemented through the FMBN and the Federal Government Staff Housing Loans Board. The two organisations signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) during the event.

“The federal government approved the payment of full Duty Tour Allowance, 100 per cent, for civil servants attending approved training programmes at our manpower development institutions… irrespective of whether the officer needs to travel.

 “…There has been a comprehensive review and increase in the Peculiar Allowance for officers on the Consolidated Public Service Salary Structure and the Consolidated Research and Allied Institutions Salary Structure. The revised allowance has been structured to reflect across all grade levels, resulting in a meaningful increase in takehome pay across different cadres. Whether you are a junior officer or a senior professional, this improvement is designed specially for you.

 “In addition, there has been an upward revision of the Duty Tour Allowance, Estacode, Book Allowance, and other related entitlements. These adjustments are calibrated to reflect current economic realities. A civil servant who travels on official duty should not have to subsidise accommodation from their personal pocket. That principle now has teeth.

“(Also) the federal government has approved a N10 billion Housing Loan Scheme to improve access to home ownership for civil servants. This loan will be facilitated through the FMBN and the Federal Government Staff Housing Loans Board,” she stressed.

Expanding on the housing component, Managing Director of the FMBN, Shehu Osidi, described the MoU  as a strategic intervention to streamline access to affordable housing finance for government workers.

He explained that the partnership establishes a more structured financing framework in which the bank will provide funding for on-lending to civil servants through the Board, creating multiple pathways for home ownership.

The initiative, he noted, was intended to respond to declining household income and rising construction costs, which have made housing increasingly inaccessible to many workers.

Osidi further highlighted ongoing reforms within the bank, including process automation, improved service delivery timelines, strengthened credit quality and enhanced operational efficiency. These changes, he said, are part of efforts to reposition the institution as a more responsive and development-driven entity capable of supporting national housing objectives at scale.

He also pointed to existing financing windows such as home renovation loans, individual construction loans and cooperative housing schemes, alongside newer products including non-interest mortgages, diaspora mortgage options and rent assistance programmes.

Collectively, these instruments, he emphasised, were expected to expand access to housing across income levels and reduce the burden on civil servants who contribute significantly to the national housing fund.

According to him, the collaboration reflects a shift towards deeper institutional alignment, where the mortgage bank’s financing capacity is integrated with the Housing Loans Board’s direct interface with civil servants, thereby simplifying access and improving delivery outcomes.

“Today’s signing of this memorandum marks not just the beginning of a collaboration, but the dawn of a renewed commitment to improving the lives and welfare of Nigerian workers, particularly our hard-working federal civil servants, who remain the backbone of our nation’s civil service,” he stated.

Faleye, in his comments, reiterated the organisation’s commitment to strengthening the implementation of the Employee Compensation Scheme. The NSITF also signalled plans to expand engagement and advocacy to entrench the scheme as a core pillar of workers’ protection in the federal service.

In her remarks, the Director General of the National Pension Commission (PENCOM), Omolola Oloworaran, outlined ongoing pension reforms aimed at improving retirement outcomes.

These, she said, include faster processing timelines for retirement benefits, the introduction of a minimum pension guarantee and plans to extend health insurance coverage to low-income retirees.

In a related development, the National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission (NSIWC) announced the approved estacode, kilometre allowances and revised rates for permanent secretaries, their equivalents and and civil servants from Grade Level 01 to 17 as contained in the Public Service Rules (2021 Edition).

The Chairman/CEO NSIWC, Ekpo U.O. Nua, conveyed the approval in an circular dated April 23 and addressed to the Chief of Staff to the President, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Head of the Civil Service of the Federation, Honourable Ministers and Chairmen, Federal Commissions, among others.

In line with the approved rates, permanent secretaries would now receive $1,040 per day as estacode allowance, while senior civil servants on GL 15-17 are now entitled to $737 estacode per day.

The NSIWC also approved estacode of $666 per day for GL 07-14 workers and $357 for those on GL 01-06.

It also approved $1,248 as the warm clothing allowance for the Permanent Secretaries.

The revised table also set the kilometre allowance of N664 per kilometre as what a permanent secretary is now entitled to, while N531/ kilometre is what is approved for directorate level worker on GL15-17 .

The table of revised rate also set the Duty Tour (DTA) allowance of N109,000 for civil servants on GL 16-17 and their equivalents, while those on GL 14-15 and their equivalents will receive N73,000 as DTA.

Workers on the lowest rung of GL 01-04 and their equivalents are entitled to DTA of N30,000.

The revised rate of allowances contained in the PSR also covered approvals for  teaching allowance, local running allowance (30 per cent of DTA), local course allowance, book allowance, uniform allowance, responsibility allowance and project allowance, among others.

The circular further stated that any allowance that were listed under PSR 140102 without monetary values; (b) were not listed in the PSR but were in operation: and were subsequently approved by the National Council on Establishments/Government, would be addressed through specific circulars by the NSIWC. The approval takes effect from October 1, 2026