Aided By $4.85bn Portfolio Inflows, Capital Importation Peaked at $6.01bn in Q3 2025

• Moderation in food, commodity prices lowers inflation to 15.10% 

•Severe in Benue, Kogi, Abuja, others

James Emejo in Abuja and Dike Onwuamaeze in Lagos

Nigeria’s total capital importation rose by 17.46 per cent to $6.01 billion in the third quarter of last year (Q3 2025), compared with $5.12 billion recorded in the preceding quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed yesterday.

This was disclosed same day the NBS latest figures for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the rate of change in prices of goods and commodities, showed that it further eased to 15.10 per cent in January, compared to 15.15 per cent in December 2025.

The capital importation figure indicated an increase of 380.16 per cent, compared to $1.25 billion in Q3 2024.

According to the capital importation report for Q3 2025, portfolio investment ranked top with $4.85 billion, accounting for 80.70 per cent, followed by Other Investment with $864.57 million or 14.37 per cent of total inflows.

Foreign Direct Investment recorded the least inflow with $296.25 million or 4.93 per cent of total capital importation in Q3.

According to the NBS, the banking sector recorded the highest inflow with capital inflow with $3.14 billion, representing 52.25 per cent of total capital imported in the review period.

This was followed by the financing sector, valued at $1.85 billion, accounting for  30.85 per cent , and the production/manufacturing sector with $261.35 million or 4.35 per cent.

Capital Importation originated largely from the United Kingdom with $2.93 billion, representing 48.80 per cent of the total capital imported.

This was followed by the United States with $950.47 million or 15.80 per cent and the Republic of South Africa with $773.95 million, representing 12.87 per cent.

Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited received the highest capital importation into Nigeria with $2.11 billion or 35.17 per cent, followed by Stanbic IBTC Bank $1.78 billion or 29.75 per cent.

Citibank Nigeria Limited attracted with $561.40 million or 9.33 per cent.

Meanwhile, the CPI figures showed that year-on-year, headline inflation stood at 12.51 per cent compared to 27.61 per cent in January 2025.

Month-on-month, headline inflation stood at -2.88 per cent in January compared to 0.54 per cent in December.

Food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent, year-on-year, from 29.63 per cent in January 2025.

Month-on-month, the food index was -6.02 per cent compared to -0.36 per cent in December.

The NBS attributed the decline in food inflation to the rate of decrease in the average prices of water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef meat, melon, unshelled cassava tuber, and cow peas, among others.

However, core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy, stood at 17.72 per cent year on year in January 2026 compared to 25.27 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.

Month-on-month, the core index stood at 1.69 per cent compared to 0.58 per cent in the preceding month.

Year-on-year, urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent compared to 29.45 per cent in January 2025. Month-on-month, urban inflation was -2.72 per cent in January compared to 0.99 per cent in December.

On the other hand, rural inflation stood at 14.44 per cent, year-on-year in January compared to 25.04 per cent in January 2025.

Month-on-month, the rural index was -3.29 per cent compared to -0.55 per cent in December 2025.

At the state level, year-on-year, headline inflation was highest in Benue (22.48 per cent), Kogi (20.98 per cent), and Abuja (19.25 per cent), while Ebonyi (8.72 per cent), Katsina (8.94 per cent), and Imo (10.61 per cent) recorded the lowest rise in prices.

Month-on-month, however, inflation recorded the highest increases in Imo (1.93 per cent), Ondo (1.932 per cent) and Kaduna (0.67 per cent), while Cross River (-6.34 per cent), Ogun (-6.30 per cent), and Kogi (-6.03 per cent) recorded a decline.

Year-on-year, food inflation was highest in Kogi (19.84 per cent), Benue (18.38 per cent), and Adamawa (17.29 per cent), while Ebonyi (1.69 per cent), Abia (3.23 per cent), and Imo (3.74 per cent) recorded the slowest rise in food prices.

Month-on-month, however, food inflation was highest in Imo (-1.26 per cent), Akwa Ibom (-2.21 per cent) and Zamfara (-2.96 per cent), while Yobe (-11.88 per cent), Nasarawa (-9.06 per cent), and Sokoto (-8.31 per cent) recorded a decline.

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) described the significant moderation in Nigeria’s inflation dynamics as “the emergence of real disinflation rather than temporary price volatility.”

The Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said the development represented “an important macroeconomic shift with implications for household welfare, agricultural income sustainability, monetary policy direction, and private-sector investment strategy.”

Yusuf said: “Nigeria’s January 2026 inflation outcomes signal a meaningful transition toward macroeconomic stabilisation, driven primarily by declining food prices and supported by easing core inflation.

“The development is positive for household welfare, consumption recovery, and investment confidence, but presents downside risks for farm incomes and rural economic sustainability.

“The central policy priority is therefore to consolidate disinflation while protecting agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods.

“Achieving this balance will be critical to transforming current price moderation into durable stability, inclusive growth, and improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.”

He said the easing of inflation pressure was broad-based across major components of the price index.

He added, “the disinflation trend creates room for cautious and gradual monetary easing. However, this must remain data-driven given that core inflation and twelve-month average inflation remain elevated.”

According to him, “the sharp moderation in food inflation carries substantial welfare benefits because food accounts for the largest share of household expenditure in Nigeria.

“If sustained, these developments could stimulate retail trade, manufacturing utilisation, and service-sector activity, thereby supporting broader economic recovery.”

Yusuf, however, remarked that while declining food prices benefit consumers, they also pose risks for farm incomes and rural economic stability.

“There is therefore a critical need to balance consumer affordability with producer sustainability to safeguard national food security,” he said.

He also urged the government to deploy targeted measures to protect farm incomes while sustaining food affordability, including productivity support, minimum guaranteed prices for selected crops, strategic reserves, and expanded agro-processing capacity to absorb surplus output.

Yusuf said the latest inflation figures have implications for consumers, investors, and businesses’ strategy.

He added: “Easing inflation—particularly food inflation—signals gradual recovery in real household demand, creating opportunities in consumer goods, retail, logistics, and services.

“Disinflation reduces the ability of firms to rely on price increases for revenue growth, thereby increasing the importance of cost efficiency, productivity, and scale.

“Sustained disinflation could support gradual interest-rate moderation and improved equity valuations, favouring long-term productive investment over short-term inflation hedging.”