Bridging Global Economic Shocks and Nigeria’s Food Security 

Fadekemi Ajakaiye 

Dr. Babatunde Moses Adesanya, a distinguished expert in Development Economics, Econometrics, and Quantitative Economics from University of Abuja, has significantly advanced the understanding of how international economic shocks impact domestic food prices in Nigeria. 

His groundbreaking thesis, “An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of International Price Transmission on Domestic Food Price Volatility in Nigeria: 2000-2019,” provides valuable insights into the global-local linkages that contribute to Nigeria’s rising food prices. As Nigeria grapples with food insecurity, Dr. Adesanya’s work sheds light on the challenges and offers pathways to mitigate the adverse effects of global price fluctuations on vulnerable populations.

Dr. Adesanya’s research is particularly relevant given the 2022 World Food Day theme, “Leave NO ONE behind,” which calls for inclusive and equitable access to food for all. His study meticulously examines how fluctuations in global oil prices, world food prices, and exchange rates influence food price volatility in Nigeria, disproportionately affecting low-income households. His findings show that while world food price volatility does not significantly transmit to domestic markets, changes in oil prices and exchange rates do. 

“The ripple effects of rising oil prices and exchange rate instability are felt most in the agricultural sector, pushing up production costs and making food less affordable for the poorest Nigerians,” Dr. Adesanya explains.

One of Dr. Adesanya’s key contributions is his use of econometric models to analyze the short- and long-term effects of these external shocks on Nigeria’s food market. His work employs the ARDL methodology to quantify these impacts, revealing that domestic food price volatility is driven by a combination of internal and external factors. 

By drawing attention to the role of oil prices in driving food inflation, his research emphasizes the need for Nigeria to strengthen its agricultural production base to become less reliant on imported food and energy.

Dr. Adesanya’s expertise and recognition in econometrics and development economics have earned him a place among Africa’s leading economic scholars. His work is not only academic; it has direct policy implications. He advocates for policies that stabilize exchange rates, enhance local food production, and reduce dependence on oil—a critical step toward achieving food security. 

As Nigeria faces escalating food prices, Dr. Adesanya’s findings offer crucial solutions that align with the global goal of leaving no one behind in the fight against hunger and malnutrition.

“Achieving food security in Nigeria requires bold, transformative policies that address the root causes of price volatility, especially in an era of increasing global uncertainty,” says Dr. Adesanya. 

His work offers both an empirical foundation and a policy blueprint for reducing food price volatility and ensuring that even the most marginalized Nigerians have access to affordable and nutritious food.