THE ELECTION PREDICTION THAT OFFENDED SOME

Nigerian politicians should face electoral matters squarely instead of fighting mass media opinions, writes MONDAY PHILIPS EKPE

London-based The Economist is readily one of the world’s most respected print news media. A hard-earned profile, in case that needs to be stressed. It’s for the same reason that one item in its publication on Nigeria’s Independence Day, October 1, a couple of days ago, has bruised some nerves and, perhaps, calmed others. Titled, “Nigerians Dislike Their President, But May Re-elect Him Anyway”, the contents are both emphatic and unapologetic, and have kept faith with the headline.

Drawing the premises of its conclusion from the findings of Control Risks, an international risk consultancy firm, the newspaper had probably hoped that its target readers would sit back, relax, enjoy and then swing into necessary actions. But much more than these are being harvested. Consider the following six key statements in the article. One: “Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent Nigerian elections.” Even without any stated scientific data and analyses, this assertion is already a given. Access to publicly-owned funds, facilities and privileges has often been deployed by government officials to prosecute private interests. Restraint in this regard and the will to investigate such practices have continued to dwindle over time. 

Two: “Even voters who like Mr. Obi (Peter Obi, Presidential Candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress – NDC) may rule him out because he is a Catholic; the fact that he has a Muslim running mate may not be enough.” The rationale for this pronouncement is neither here nor there. When Obi left the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) abruptly in the runup to the last presidential election and picked the Labour Party (LP) ticket, not many people saw his subsequent strong showing coming. Not few Nigerians still think, rightly or otherwise, that he actually triumphed in the 2023 outing. Yes, that was an unprecedented surprise and the circumstances may have changed. But dismissing his chances is also flippant and ill-considered.  

Three: “Many people are living where there has been no real security, no real health care, no real schools. Over time, people’s expectations get lower and lower.” Put differently, many Nigerians have resigned to fate and have inadvertently become complicit in the sabotage of their own entitlements. I’ve always maintained that, more than any other factor, the recklessness and self-centredness of Nigerian leaders have been further enabled by the failure of the masses to take their destinies into their own hands and confront such sad behaviours frontally. No democracy is worth the name without a participatory populace, after all. Ordinary persons assume political positions and instantly become demigods, untouchable by the travails of those on the other side of the table. You are tempted to attribute that attitude to the unpalatable experiences under the military administrations but you’re soon faced with the fact that 27 years in this Fourth Republic – the nation’s longest in its chequered history – ought to have tutored the citizens well enough on how to make corporate, concerted and legitimate demands.     

Four: “Plenty may swallow whatever bad feelings they have about their day-to-day struggles and vote for their ‘son’” Sectionalism. Tribalism. Stubborn sentiments which have for long contested against merit in the country’s quest for excellence and genuine progress. Numerous videos originating even from south west Nigeria, President Bola Tinubu’s home-base, detailing the citizenry’s disenchantment with his administration have been trending on the social media. But will the angst be subsumed under primordial instincts and not matter at the 2027 presidential poll?   

Five: “No wonder Mr Tinubu feels safe enough to take extended holidays in Paris.” Another word used in this report to describe the president’s relaxed posture in the midst of the various challenges encountered by his compatriots is “cool”. No attempt to do his psychoanalysis here. But suffice it to say that Nigerians do not look like people who would make drastic moves to alter their togas of predictability and aloofness anytime soon. At least, in the estimation of the bulk of the political class. When you hold the reins of power here, the range of the things you can do to ensure your re-election is virtually limitless.

Six: “As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment.” That is, not much exists at the moment to motivate the chunk of the electorate to vote for Tinubu but they’re set to do just that. And seemingly helplessly so. It is this point that has irritated the leading opposition parties, in particular. 

Listen to Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, spokesperson of the African Democratic Congress (ADC): “I’m embarrassed the way we are elevating a mere story to the level of an electoral projection. If this were a logic class, we would be guilty of what is called ‘argumentum ad veracundiam.’ I read that story, and I think even as a piece of journalism, it’s poor journalism.”

Hear Phrank Shaibu, Director of Communication, ADC’s Presidential Campaign Council: “A forecast is not a verdict. Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families.”

Read Osa Director, National Publicity Secretary of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC): “The Economist article agreed that Tinubu is so unpopular. So, how did it arrive at the conclusion that he would still win despite that? The article decided to leave many things unsaid. Its conclusion was not based on the facts and statistics that it itself identified as Tinubu’s Achilles’ heels.?

But, can Nigerians be trusted now to vote overwhelmingly against the government that appears incapable of tackling the vicissitudes that plague them unendingly? If they do, will their efforts count? Are they prepared to go the extra mile? Many people can’t figure out any fundamental differences between the current holders of power and those intending to displace them. Even before the offensive story, concerns had been raised at some fora about the inability of the rival politicians to present a common front in order to unseat Tinubu; in addition to the advantages that go with incumbency. A lot more should be done to present viable alternatives to the Nigerian people. Not to attack a sincere, even if flawed, view in The Economist. Abubakar, Obi and co. could well be returning to their fortunes three year ago. A déjà vu that can be avoided.

Dr Ekpe is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board

X: @monday_ekpe2