Nigeria’s 2027 Transition: A Subsidy Debate and the Green Agenda of Electoral Candidates  

SOStainabilityWeekly

Edited by Oke Epia, E-mail: sostainability01@gmail.com  | WhatsApp: +234 8034000706

Spotlight

Political pundits have described the raging debate on petrol subsidy shaping the 2027 presidential campaign in Nigeria as a welcome development. Voters are now presented with diametrical policy options on a singular issue that directly connects with existential realities of life and living on a daily basis. The debate has not only presented ample opportunity to interrogate the advantages and disadvantages of subsidy removal by incumbent President Bola Tinubu since 2023 when he came into office, but also illuminated the dialetic of subsidy support as a balm for battering times such as has been foisted on much of the world by the Middle East conflict.

The excruciating cost of living and the consequential escalated pauperisation of the masses have raised hard questions that cannot be addressed with yesterday’s answers or mere sloganeering that pander to the whims of neo-liberal capitalism. These are the core conceptual Economic, Social, and Governance (ESG) issues that shape conversations about whether or not fuel subsidy should be returned as canvassed boldly by Atiku Abubakar, a leading contender for Tinubu’s job. This page will, however, intervene from the prism of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) principles of sustainability, majoring on the first as far as the fuel subsidy matter is at issue. In another series, we have been dwelling on the economic benefits of subsidy removal, calling attention to what impact state governors have made on the power sector since its deregulation in 2023 and amidst the exponential increase in federal allocations.  We want to focus on the environmental and climate ramifications of petrol subsidy; using it as a hook to call public attention to the green agenda and policies of the individuals seeking office at the presidential, gubernatorial levels of government.

For starters, it is important to acknowledge that the intervention of the presidential candidates on the petrol subsidy matter has mostly focused on the economic, social and governance considerations. Very little to nothing has been said about the environmental implications of petrol subsidies. This is the perspective this page seeks to highlight, as one of the (subtle) arguments for the removal of fuel subsidy is to advance the transition away from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy. Climate activists argue on the basis of science that greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are key drivers of global warming and the resultant recurrence and ubiquity of extreme weather events which are known to have immediate and long-term impacts on the planet, people, community, and livelihoods. The argument is that removal of petrol subsidy can incentivize or accelerate the transition since the resources for funding the consumption of fossil-based energy can be channeled into exploring and scaling cleaner energy like solar, hydro, wind, hydrogen, and geothermal power, etc. While this climate consideration appears not to underpin the current fuel subsidy debate, it presents the opportunity to highlight and interrogate the green policies of those seeking electoral mandate in 2027. For this purpose, SOStainability will work with partners to explore the climate policies and green agenda of presidential, governorship, and legislative candidates seeking election in 2027. This is because the climate crisis and sustainability challenges, including supply chain volatilities, that beset the world cannot be regarded as after-thought or appendages of policy: they are, in fact, key fundamentals of statecraft. Economic growth and development can no longer be detached from the sustainability of the planet, preservation and regeneration of biodiversity and ecosystems, healthy and thriving populations, and resilient communities. Therefore, this non-partisan series will be asking questions of the climate commitment of candidates, their agenda for net zero, plans for the SDGs, and development models anchored on the energy transition.