2027: Can Okpebholo Really Deliver 2.5m Edo Votes for Tinubu?

Ahead of the 2027 general elections, Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State appears to have emerged as a self-confident voice within the All Progressives Congress, projecting himself as a dependable ally capable of delivering as many as 2.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu. But, from all indications, the figure appears more a political aspiration than a realistic projection—one that risks distorting strategic planning at the national level. Iyobosa Uwugiaren writes.

On a rain-soaked morning along the Benin–Sapele–Warri highway, a commercial driver, Osaze  Omoruyi–living in Ologbo community, sat beside his broken-down bus, watching passengers trek through the mud while waiting for a mechanic who might not arrive until evening.

“Governor Monday Okpebholo is bragging about 2.5 million votes for Tinubu; we will wait and see in 2027,” he muttered. “It is this road that will  decide how I will vote.”

That frustration, repeated across Edo’s highways, including the Agbor–Abavo–Urhonigbe–Abraka Road and other communities, captures the gap between political projections and everyday realities in the state.

In the unfolding political calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections, Governor Okpebholo has emerged as a self-confident voice within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), projecting and positing himself as a dependable ally capable of delivering as many as 2.5 million votes for President Bola Tinubu.

The claim, though politically energising within party circles, is already generating quiet debate among analysts who warn that such optimism may not reflect Edo State’s electoral realities. For them, the figure is less a forecast than a political aspiration—one that risks distorting strategic planning at the national level.

At the heart of the concern is a simple but critical question: can Edo State, based on its voting history, infrastructure challenges, wide perceptions of marginalisation and political behaviour, realistically produce such a dramatic electoral swing?

Not many political analysts would dispute that the arithmetic behind the 2.5 million-vote projection immediately raises eyebrows.

To be sure, in the 2023 presidential election, Edo State had 2,501,081 registered voters. Yet only 603,894 were accredited, with 600,395 votes cast. The Labour Party’s Peter Obi dominated the state with 331,163 votes, while Tinubu of the APC polled 144,471 votes and Atiku Abubakar of the PDP secured 89,585.

The implication is stark: the entire registered voter base in 2023 is almost equivalent to the number of votes now being projected for a single candidate in 2027. For political observers, this is not merely ambitious; it is unprecedented.

Even if voter registration increases and turnout improves, analysts have argued that expecting a near-total political conversion of the electorate would require a level of mobilisation Edo State has never witnessed in a presidential contest. Such an expectation, they contend, is unrealistic.

The 2023 outcome further complicates optimism. Obi won 12 of the state’s 18 local government areas, leaving the APC with six. For Tinubu to rise from 144,000 votes to anything close to 2.5 million would require not just incremental gains, but a sweeping political realignment.

Governor Okpebholo’s supporters have pointed to his control of the state’s political machinery, and his 2024 governorship victory—later affirmed by the Supreme Court in July 2025—as evidence of strong grassroots influence.

But Edo’s electoral history tells a more nuanced story. The 2023 presidential election demonstrated that voters in the state, especially in the Edo South Senatorial District, are capable of separating state-level leadership from national preference. While the APC maintained a presence in 2023 general election, it failed to translate that into a presidential victory.

Political analysts have argued that this distinction is crucial. Governorship elections are often shaped by local dynamics, personalities and state-level issues, while presidential elections are influenced by national sentiment, economic conditions, and broader political alignments.

As one analyst put it, “winning a state does not automatically mean owning its presidential vote.”

Beyond party structures and electoral arithmetic lies a more grounded issue: infrastructure.

Across Edo State, major federal highways linking Benin to Warri, Auchi, Ekpoma, Uromi, Agbor and other communities have long been sources of the people’s frustration. Motorists routinely complain of potholes, delays, vehicle damage, and rising transport costs.

Other affected routes include the Sakpoba–Ugo–Abraka Road, which has become increasingly dilapidated, creating security concerns along the route. Several travelers have been kidnapped on the road.

On the Benin–Warri Expressway, the Ologbo boundary corridor and sections of the Sapele Road have suffered from deep craters that trap trailers and buses for days. While on the Benin–Agbor Road, dilapidated sections near the Edo–Delta border have disrupted travel between regional commercial centres.

The problems are not limited to major highways. Agrarian connector and rural feeder roads around Urhonigbe, Ugo, Evbwesi, and other communities have consistently faced severe deterioration and, in some cases, near-total isolation during the rainy season.

Amid the infrastructure challenges, stakeholders have blamed prolonged bureaucratic delays for the slow pace of federal infrastructure delivery. Lawmakers such as Senator Adams Oshiomhole have publicly criticised the Umahi-led Federal Ministry of Works over what they described as the perceived abandonment of South-South routes, particularly in Edo State.

While the federal government has flagged off the 125-kilometre Benin–Asaba highway project, with a 30-month completion timeline announced in 2025, residents have argued that the political value of such projects depends not on ceremonies but on delivery. For many citizens, the experience of daily travel outweighs official explanations about funding cycles or contractor delays.

A trader stuck on a failed highway, observers noted, is unlikely to distinguish between federal and state responsibility when casting a ballot.

For many citizens, infrastructure challenges are closely tied to security concerns in parts of Edo and neighbouring Delta State. Poor road conditions—potholes, broken bridges, and traffic bottlenecks—can create vulnerable points where motorists fear attacks or kidnappings. This has added another layer of insecurity to already difficult travel conditions.

Even the Edo State governor has publicly condemned kidnapping incidents and called for stronger security responses, underscoring the shared responsibility between federal and state authorities.

For voters, however, the distinction between the two levels of government is often less important than lived experience. Rising insecurity, analysts warned, can erode trust in all political actors simultaneously.

Another layer of complexity lies in perceptions of political inclusion. There are growing concerns over what many people describe as inadequate representation of Edo South in federal and state appointments under the Tinubu-led administration and the Okpebholo government. While such claims may not reflect universal sentiment, they highlight the sensitivity of regional balance in Edo politics.

Edo State’s three senatorial districts—South, Central and North—each carry distinct political identities and expectations. Any attempt to build a sweeping electoral victory must account for these internal dynamics. Where perceptions of exclusion and marginalisation persist, opposition parties often find fertile ground for building alternative narratives. That sentiment, some observers have postulated, is already taking shape in Edo State.

At the centre of the debate is a wider political reality: no governor, regardless of influence or financial resources, can guarantee millions of presidential votes. Elections are ultimately decided by voters, not political projections.

Arguably, Governor Okpebholo does not command the kind of significant influence within APC structures that would translate into a historic presidential landslide.

Achieving such an outcome would require far more than party loyalty or organisational strength. The 2023 results remain a reminder of this limitation. Despite the APC’s presence in the state, Tinubu trailed significantly behind Obi, reflecting a complex and competitive political environment.

Complicating matters further is the fluid nature of opposition politics. Recent developments in 2026 saw the opposition coalition weakened after key figures such as Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso withdrew from the ADC-led alliance. While this fragmentation may appear advantageous to the APC, analysts have warned that it should not be mistaken for guaranteed support in any state. Edo’s electorate, they argued, remains dynamic and responsive to both national and local developments.

What, then, is a realistic strategy for President Tinubu? Rather than anchoring his expectations on a single numerical promise, political observers have suggested a broader, more grounded approach.

They have advised that the federal government’s performance in Edo State will be decisive. This includes accelerating road rehabilitation, improving security coordination, and ensuring a visible federal presence across all three senatorial districts.

Equally important is sustained grassroots engagement—moving beyond elite political structures to include traders, youth groups, traditional institutions, religious bodies, and professional associations.

Data-driven campaign planning, they said, will also be critical. Understanding voting patterns from 2023, identifying areas of weakness and addressing voters’ concerns may prove more effective than relying on ambitious projections.

Governor Okpebholo may well remain a key political ally of President Tinubu in Edo State, but analysts have cautioned against equating political alignment with electoral certainty. The projection of 2.5 million votes, they advised, should be viewed as a political aspiration rather than a dependable forecast.

Past election results, combined with Edo’s complex political and infrastructural realities, have suggested that such a figure would require a fundamental transformation in voter behaviour and turnout.

That transformation, observers insisted, can not be achieved through political assurances alone. It would require visible governance outcomes—functional roads, improved security, inclusive representation, the resolution of burning grievances in Edo South Senatorial District, and sustained public trust.

As one political analyst summed it up: “Elections are not delivered by promises. They are earned through performance.”

For President Tinubu and the APC, the message from Edo appears clear: no governor can substitute for a grounded, people-driven electoral strategy.