Presidency Knocks Atiku, Dismisses Alleged N7.98tn Oil Windfall

Defends Tinubu’s economic reforms, says debt remains sustainable

Accuses opposition of using outdated data to criticise government 

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The Presidency yesterday launched a defence of President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, dismissing former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s criticisms of the administration’s fiscal policies as misleading and based on outdated economic data.

In a lengthy statement, the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, argued that Atiku’s assessment of the current administration ignored the progress recorded since the difficult adjustment period that followed the implementation of key reforms in 2023 and 2024.

Earlier, Atiku had accused the administration of Tinubu of fiscal recklessness, citing excess borrowing in the 2024 budget, questioning the removal of fuel subsidy, criticising tax reforms, alleging an oil windfall of N7.98 trillion, and suggesting that Nigeria is drifting economically.

But rejecting Atiku’s claim of a N7.98 trillion oil windfall, the Presidency described the calculation as fundamentally flawed.

“There is no such windfall of N7.98 trillion. Any incremental revenue from higher oil prices is reflected in the monthly FAAC figures. While the average price for the half-year 2026 for Brent is around $90 compared to the $64.85 benchmark, the average daily production fell short at about 1.6m bpd compared to the forecast of 1.84m bpd. 

“The production shortfall partly offset the price premium. In addition, some crude volume had been pledged for loans used to pay for the wasteful subsidy in the past, which the President was bold enough to remove, stopping the bleeding but not immediately translating into available revenue.

“The convenient mistake many analysts make is to multiply the oil price by the daily crude production volume to determine revenue to the government. Such analyses ignore the cost of production, the share of crude belonging to the oil-producing companies and the impact of crude sale contracts such as forward contracts designed to hedge against price volatility,” the government explained.

The Presidency maintained that the Tinubu administration had pursued necessary structural reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and laying the foundation for sustainable growth.

According to the statement, it was inappropriate to judge a reform programme solely on its most painful phase, stressing that the Nigerian economy had recovered considerably since the exchange rate realignment.

It stated that after Nigeria’s dollar denominated Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to about $253 billion following the foreign exchange reforms, it had rebounded to approximately $377 billion, while naira Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had risen from about N314 trillion in 2024 to around N530 trillion.

On borrowing, the Presidency argued that Nigeria’s debt position should be assessed in relation to the size of the economy, revenue generating capacity and the productive use of borrowed funds rather than the absolute value of public debt.

It maintained that Nigeria’s debt to GDP ratio remained at about 40 per cent, significantly below those of several peer and advanced economies, while the debt service to revenue ratio had declined from nearly 100 per cent in December 2022 to less than 60 per cent.

“Debt, in itself, is not the defining measure of fiscal health. What matters are the size of the economy; our revenue-generating capacity; debt servicing costs; the purposes for which funds are borrowed; and whether borrowed resources finance productive investments or recurrent consumption. Nigeria’s debts have been acquired for productive, long-term infrastructural and investment purposes – according to the law,” the statement added.

The Presidency also defended the removal of fuel subsidy, describing it as one of the boldest economic decisions taken by the administration.

It said the policy had significantly increased statutory allocations to states and local governments through the Federation Account, providing subnational governments with greater fiscal space to invest in roads, healthcare, education, salaries, pensions and social programmes.

“This means that  President Tinubu has tactically placed more responsibility for socioeconomic development on states and local governments, while providing requisite funding. This is true federalism and a bold statement on the much-vaunted subject of economic restructuring – another important issue gallantly avoided by the government in which Alhaji Atiku served and wielded great influence,” it stressed.

On the tax reforms, the government rejected claims that it was imposing heavier taxes on Nigerians, insisting that the objective was to build a broader and more equitable tax system.

According to the Presidency, the reforms exempt low income earners and small businesses while ensuring that wealthier individuals and profitable enterprises contribute a fairer share of tax revenue.

“The underlying principle is that those with greater capacity should bear a larger share of the tax burden, while micro-enterprises and vulnerable households receive greater protection. Nigerians understand that to have a fine, working nation, we all must contribute to her prosperity. And we are on course,” the Tinubu administration argued.

The statement further highlighted achievements in healthcare, education and infrastructure, noting that more than 3,000 primary healthcare centres had been revitalised while over 78,000 frontline health workers had been retrained in the last three years.

It added that three world class cancer centres were now operational in Kubwa, Enugu and Katsina, while cancer treatment facilities had been expanded in 13 states.

In the education sector, the Presidency said over 11,000 projects had been undertaken by the Universal Basic Education Commission in collaboration with state governments.

It also cited the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), stating that more than 1.64 million students had benefited from loans amounting to over N303 billion across about 300 tertiary institutions.

On infrastructure, the Presidency said ongoing investments in roads, bridges, railways, gas infrastructure, electricity transmission, airports, housing and digital connectivity were aimed at reducing logistics costs and stimulating private sector growth.

The Presidency maintained that Nigeria was not over borrowed and argued that ongoing reforms were already improving revenue mobilisation, strengthening public financial management and reducing fiscal vulnerabilities.

While acknowledging that the reforms had imposed short term hardships, the statement insisted they were necessary to eliminate long standing structural distortions and reposition the economy for long term growth.

It added that recent social intervention programmes, including the ward-based NG-CARES, HOPE and SOLID initiatives, alongside cash transfers to 15 million vulnerable households, were designed to cushion the impact of the reforms on Nigerians.