One Year Later, Ojulari’s NNPC Scorecard is Mixed

When Bayo Ojulari was appointed Group CEO of NNPC Limited, the energy industry paid attention. Here was an engineer with over 30 years at Shell, including a stint as Managing Director of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production, being handed Africa’s largest national oil company with a mandate to run it like a private multinational.

The expectations were sweet and specific. He promised $30 billion in investment by 2027 and a production target of two million barrels per day. He took over after NNPC’s conversion to a limited liability company under the Petroleum Industry Act, a moment that demanded a different kind of leadership.

Fifteen months in, the numbers from his own camp are credible. NNPC cut operating costs by $3.4 billion through contract restructuring. Key pipelines, including the Trans Niger and Forcados lines, achieved full availability. Crude export terminals hit a 98% operational recovery rate. Government revenue contributions rose to N19.5 trillion, and projected profit after tax stands at N5.76 trillion. He also introduced NNPC’s first Group Earnings Call and real-time production dashboards.

But there are also failure points. Nigeria’s four state-owned refineries remain offline, and Ojulari made it worse by publicly admitting NNPC cannot run them profitably. The OB3 Gas Pipeline and the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline both missed commissioning deadlines. Overall, national output continues to fall short of Nigeria’s OPEC quota. Not to mention that his early months were turbulent, marked by union disputes, parliamentary probes, and a resignation controversy in August 2025 that unsettled investors before he was cleared to continue.

What lies ahead is a gas-focused strategy, experts believe. A 20-year supply deal to revive the Ajaokuta Steel Complex is already signed, and a Final Investment Decision on a floating LNG project is expected by year-end. State refineries will likely shift to private partnerships rather than NNPC management.

Ojulari has named political pressure as his greatest threat. That may prove more accurate than any production figure.