Global Air Passenger Demand Fell 2.2% in May Due to Middle East Crisis

• African airlines records 8.9% increase

Chinedu Eze

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data for May 2026 global passenger demand indicating that total demand was down 2.2 percent compared to the same period last year.

But despite the global fall in passenger demand, African airlines saw an 8.9% year-on-year increase in demand, as capacity was up 8.3 percent year-on-year and the load factor was 73.4 percent (+0.4 ppt compared to May 2025).

The global body revealed that total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) was down, adding that excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.7 percent in other parts of the world and the total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 2.3 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 83.5 percent (+0.1 ppt compared to May 2025), a record high for May.

The major cause for the fall was the crisis in the Middle East which disrupted both domestic and international flights.

 IATA also stated that international passenger demand fell by 1.6 percent compared to May 2025, but Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 3.1 percent and capacity was down 2.4 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.7 percent (+0.7 ppt compared to May 2025).

Domestic demand contrasted globally to 3.1 percent compared to May 2025. Capacity decreased 2.1 percent year-on-year. The load factor was 83 percent (-0.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2 percent year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was cantered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4 percent year-on-year fall.

“That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6 percent decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.

 “Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time.

“Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a two percent margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs,” IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh said.

 Reports indicate that the Middle East aviation market contributes approximately six percent to 10 percent of global international air travel.

The region accounts for about six percent of total worldwide scheduled passenger capacity, but its share of international traffic (Available Seat Kilometers) sits higher at roughly 10% because carriers operate larger aircraft on significantly longer routes

IATA stated that international RPK fell 1.6 percent, with capacity falling 2.4 percent.

The pace of decline reduced compared to April and many regions hit record load factors for May, with only the Middle East posting a load factor decline.

However, Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 1.3 percent year-on-year increase in demand, as capacity decreased 1.1 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.3 percent (+2.0 ppt compared to May 2025). In Vietnam, tighter limits on jet fuel imports led to significant capacity cuts on short haul routes, resulting in a decline in intra-Asia international traffic during the month.

“European carriers saw a 3.8 percent year-on-year increase in demand as capacity increased 2.3 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.4 percent (+1.2 ppt compared to May 2025). Of note is the 15 percent increase in direct traffic to Asia, reflecting a continued shift to direct services between the two regions.

“North American carriers increased demand one percent year-on-year. Capacity increased 0.6 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 84 percent (+0.4 ppt compared to May 2025),” IATA stated.

But Middle Eastern carriers saw a 28.8 percent year-on-year decrease in demand, as capacity fell 24.3 percent year-on-year, and the load factor was 76.1 percent (-4.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

“The impacts of the Iran war continue to cause a highly negative year-on-year traffic comparison, but month-to-month the impact is lessening and the rate of decline was almost half that of April.”