Anchoring Monetary Policy Decisions on Numbers

James Emejo writes on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s adherence to rule-based monetary policy

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Olayemi Cardoso, has repeatedly demonstrated his faith in the implementation of orthodox monetary policy, which he believes remains crucial for restoring investor confidence in the economy.

Since taking over the helm of affairs at the apex bank in September 2023, he has made orthodox economic principles one of the cardinal principles of his administration – and now he has the numbers to prove his policy choices.

Orthodox intervention is traditional central banking strategies that rely on established, market-based mechanisms—primarily interest rates and open-market operations—to control inflation and stabilise the economy. 

Similarly, the rules-based monetary framework enables the central bank to tweak interest rates and money supply based on predetermined formulas and mathematical models rather than ad-hoc, subjective human judgment, and is mainly designed to provide economic stability, transparency, and predictability.

Cardoso had blamed his predecessor for adopting unorthodox practices that led to high inflation and exchange rate crisis that eroded investor confidence and trust in the central bank – some of the deficits he inherited and bent on addressing – with early positive outcomes so far.

Bold statement at MPC 

If anything, the recent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting further demonstrated the apex bank’s disposition to rules-based administration under Cardoso.

Notwithstanding the marginal uptick in inflation for two consecutive months, largely induced by external shocks, the CBN retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the benchmark interest rate at 26.5 per cent as well as the standing facilities corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points. The central bank also left the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) unchanged at 45 per cent, merchant banks at 16 per cent, and 75 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.

The retention of policy instruments came at a time of when the spillovers from the Middle East crisis had exerted upward pressure on energy prices and cost of transportation, prompting some analysts to predict a likely interest rate hike to respond to the situation as other developed and emerging economies had chosen to react.

Cardoso, at the conclusion of the two- day meeting of the committee, explained that the decisions to hold MPR – the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks and which often determines the cost of funds in the economy – were anchored on a comprehensive assessment of the risks to the outlook. 

Although inflation had risen marginally, largely induced by global headwinds, the MPC pointed to its transitory nature and remained confident that the current macroeconomic environment is sufficiently robust to support a return to disinflation.

Cardoso also highlighted the fact that the CBN will never be swayed by emotions or sentiment but will be backed by data in arriving at its decisions.

He said available evidence suggested that the impact of the crisis on the Nigerian economy had been largely muted due to the benefits of prior policy reforms implemented under his watch, particularly initiatives that helped to stabilise the exchange rate and improve external reserve buffers.

Other policy interventions under the CBN governor strengthened monetary policy transmission, led to a well-capitalised banking system, and ongoing fiscal consolidation, which had significantly enhanced the economy’s ability to absorb external shocks.

He said, “As a result, the pass-through of global commodity and energy price shocks to domestic inflation has been significantly mitigated and would have been more pronounced in the absence of these reforms.”

According to the CBN governor, the bank remained convinced that the essential conditions for price stability remained firmly in place.

The committee also welcomed the recent sovereign rating upgrade amid prevailing external headwinds, noting that the development further underscored the strength of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and reinforced confidence in its reforms. 

 No Businesses as Usual

Cardoso who inherited loans and advances worth N40 trillion of which CBN interventions accounted for about 25 per cent – liquidity injections that largely distorted the economy – had vowed never lead the bank in such an unpopular trajectory.

He has continually affirmed the central bank’s commitment to restoring credibility in the bank’s operations through orthodox monetary policy, transparency, and policy consistency – promising to sustain key policy reforms undertaken under his watch to address a crisis of confidence which he inherited at his assumption of office in 2023.

Cautious optimism

In February, when the apex bank cut MPR to the current level, following months of disinflation, and before the Middle East crisis, THISDAY had asked the CBN Governor if Nigerians could go to sleep on inflation. 

He said, “There will always be risks to any outlook. We cannot underestimate the potential global shocks that could come our way. Nobody has a crystal ball. We can only project into the future. But who knows what tensions there could be globally that will come in and affect us in a way that we never anticipated. Oil prices, how those oil prices play out, we can only project.”

Cardoso, an astute economist, saw the future and continued to take measures that will shield the economy from global headwinds.

However, commenting on concerns over potential lower oil price estimates and the Middle East crisis as well as CBN’s measures to tame inflation, Cardoso said, “I think it is important to first of all remember where we are coming from. Basically, we have to remember that we have been coming from 11 straight months of disinflation.

“We believe that what we have now is something that has resulted from external shocks. But notwithstanding that, we have been able to create buffers that have protected us during this period. 

“Of course, the Standard & Poor’s upgrade is further testimony to the fact that we are clearly adopting policies that are taking us in the right direction.

“The answer to that clearly is that we will continue on that path. We will sustain the course. We have seen that as a result of adopting the right policies, we have consistently been on the path of disinflation.”

He said, “This, we believe, is temporary, and in due course we should go back to the trend we had embarked upon, largely due to the tools that we had adopted. So we will continue in that light.

“In addition to that, of course, it is key that the centrepiece of our toolkit which is ensuring that the foreign exchange rate remains stable -that is something we are committed to ensuring so that collaboration is strengthened and potential pass through is minimised.”

Analysts’ Perspectives

In reaction to the CBN’s retention of monetary policy tools, the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), praised the resolve to keep parameters constant.

Chief Executive, CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf said the apex bank’s decision reflected a pragmatic, measured and increasingly sophisticated understanding of the inflation dynamics currently confronting the Nigerian economy.

Further attesting to the central bank’s rules-based interventions, Yusuf said the MPC meeting reflected a “balanced and intelligent policy calibration that appropriately recognises that the ultimate objective of macroeconomic management is not merely to tame inflation statistics, but to create an environment that supports investment, productivity, competitiveness, industrialisation and sustainable job creation.”

He noted that at a time of heightened global uncertainty and mounting geopolitical tensions, the decision of the MPC signaled policy maturity, strategic restraint and confidence in the direction of macroeconomic management, adding that 

Current inflationary pressures are substantially structural, externally induced and is being driven more by supply-side disruptions than by excess domestic demand.

Yusuf said, “Monetary policy is a powerful stabilisation instrument, but it cannot repair supply chains, resolve geopolitical conflicts or eliminate structural bottlenecks in production and distribution. 

“Attempting to force down structural inflation solely through aggressive monetary tightening would amount to applying a monetary solution to a structural problem.

“The decision to hold rates, therefore, demonstrates a commendable recognition that excessive tightening at this stage could suffocate productivity, weaken industrial recovery, constrain investment appetite and undermine employment generation.”

Average Price of Petrol Hits N1,532 Amid Food Inflation

•Cooking gas jumps to N22,382 for 12.5kg cylinder

James Emejo in Abuja

The average retail price paid by consumers for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, rose by 23.69 per cent year-on-year to N1,532.93 in April 2026, compared to N1,239.33 recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). 

According to the Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) Price Watch (April 2026) report released by the statistical agency, month-on-month, petrol prices increased by 18.97 per cent from N1,288.54 in March 2026.

 The increase in petrol price came amid persistent inflationary concerns and rising transportation and food costs that have continued to erode consumers’ purchasing power nationwide.

According to the report, state-by-state analysis showed that Yobe recorded the highest average retail price for petrol at N1,599.05 per litre during the review period.

Edo and Bauchi followed with average prices of N1,595.74 and N1,589.07 respectively.

However, Niger recorded the lowest average retail price at N1,403.89 per litre, while Sokoto and Katsina posted N1,404.16 and N1,406.28 respectively.

At zonal level, South-south had the highest average retail price of N1,566.76, while North West had the lowest price of N1,508.81.

Similarly,  the average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas increased by 13.89 per cent month-on-month to N22,382.20 in April 2026 from N19,652.83 in March 2026.

On a year-on-year basis, the price rose by 10.43 per cent from N20,268.06 recorded in April 2025.

According to the LPG Price Watch for April, Katsina recorded the highest average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder at N25,596.71, followed by Kogi at N24,558.25 and Gombe at N24,438.97.

On the other hand, Ogun recorded the lowest average price at N19,564.36, followed by Bauchi and Anambra at N20,178.87 and N20,511.90 respectively.

At the zonal level, the North-west recorded the highest average retail price for refilling a 12.5kg cylinder at N23,276.95, followed by the North-central at N22,865.29, while the South-east recorded the lowest average price at N21,060.92, the NBS stated.

In adcition, the average retail price for refilling a 5kg cylinder of cooking gas rose by 13.73 per cent month-on-month to N8,706.93 in April 2026 from N7,655.73 recorded in March 2026, the NBS stated. Year-on-year, the price increased by 10.42 per cent compared to N7,885.60 recorded in April 2025.

Lagos recorded the highest average price for refilling a 5kg cylinder at N9,745.10, followed by Nasarawa at N9,451.70 and Bayelsa at N9,422.74.

On the other hand, Anambra recorded the lowest average price at N7,204.76, while Ondo and Ogun followed with N7,239.49 and N7,825.75 respectively.

The North-west recorded the highest average retail price for refilling a 5kg cylinder at N9,025.07, followed by the North-east at N8,847.16, while the South-east recorded the lowest average price at N8,224.37.

MATAN Food Bank to Roll Out Grassroots Hunger Intervention in Imo, Says Odika

The Imo State Chairman of the MATAN Food Bank Foundation, Hon. Chris Odika, has assured residents that the impact of the foundation’s numerous food security and empowerment initiatives would soon be felt across the state.

In a statement issued yesterday by Imuche Chukwu, the state Director of Information and Technology, MATAN, Odika gave the assurance while addressing members of the foundation in Ohaji/Egbema Local Government Area at the end of a statewide tour of its structures across the council.

He urged members to remain committed to the ideals of the foundation in order to achieve its mandate at the grassroots.

The chairman described MATAN as a non-profit organisation focused on tackling hunger and promoting food security through technology-driven and community-based initiatives.

According to him, some of the group’s key programmes include the Automated MATAN Food Security Initiative and the MATAN Community Compound Foods and Nutrition Resolution Initiative.

Odika explained that the Automated MATAN Food Security Initiative, launched during a national flag-off in Lagos last year with farmers and stakeholders from the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, was designed to rebuild Nigeria’s food system from the grassroots using modern tools for food production, tracking and distribution.

He said, “The initiative targets over 40 million Nigerians through direct food access programmes, elimination of chaotic food distribution queues, and identification of vulnerable groups, including children, workers and low-income households, for intervention.”

The MATAN chairman paid tribute to the National President of the group, Ambassador Dr. Olakunle Moses Johnson, for what he described as visionary leadership.

Quoting the national president, Odika said many of Nigeria’s socio-economic challenges would naturally reduce once food becomes readily available, noting that hunger remained a major driver of insecurity, banditry and low productivity.

“Communities remain the focal point of MATAN’s operations to ensure even development across the country.

Odika also commended the Chief of Staff to the Vice-President, South-east Zone, Board of Trustees and National Secretary of MATAN Groups, Ambassador Dr. Felix Johnson Osakwe, for his role in ensuring the success of the foundation in Imo State and the South-East region.

He thanked the Ohaji/Egbema chapter of the foundation for its unity and dedication, promising continued support for members.

The chairman, however, warned members against turning the foundation into a political platform or engaging in activities capable of tarnishing its image.

Speaking during the visit, the Imo State Deputy Chairman of MATAN Food Bank Foundation, Deacon Tony Chukwu, explained that MATAN means “Motivating Action Towards Achieving Nutrition.”

Chukwu said the essence of the tour was to strengthen the foundation’s structures in rural communities, which he described as the primary beneficiaries of the organisation’s programmes.

“As agents of MATAN, you must ensure that every initiative of the foundation reaches people in the hinterlands. There should be no diversion of materials or opportunities meant for the people,” he said.

He also appreciated the Ohaji/Egbema chapter for the warm reception accorded the state executives.

The visiting team also paid a courtesy visit to the Eze-Elect of Umunwaku Autonomous Community, Chief Basil Ugochukwu.

The traditional ruler-elect pledged support for the foundation and expressed readiness to partner with MATAN to ensure his community benefits from its hunger and poverty alleviation programmes.

Earlier, the Ohaji/Egbema Local Government Area Coordinator of MATAN Food Bank Foundation, Hon. Jude Elechi, commended Odika for what he described as exceptional leadership, which he said had contributed significantly to the growth of the foundation in the state and across local government areas.

Elechi assured the state leadership that members of the local chapter would continue to discharge their responsibilities diligently and effectively.

He added that the visit by the state executives had boosted members’ confidence in the foundation’s ability to deliver on its mandate.

LASG Hails Craft Vantage on Creative Industry Initiatives

Oluchi Chibuzor

Lagos State Government has commended CraftVantage art exhibition for unlocking local and international employment opportunities for young Nigerian artists, while attracting investment and promoting sustainability in the creative industry for economic growth.

Special Adviser to Lagos State Governor on Climate Change and Circular Economy, Titilayo Oshodi, gave the commendation during the CraftVantage 2026 Graduate Exhibition, themed: ‘Bold Stories, Sustainable Futures’, held in Lagos recently.

She said the state government identifies the creative industry and green economy as critical sectors for economic diversification and growth, noting that Nigeria must begin to explore alternative revenue sources beyond oil by leveraging its abundant natural and human resources in the creative industry.

Oshodi pledged the state government would support the artists by facilitating access to markets and investment opportunities to scale and grow their operations.

Founder of CraftVantage, Oluwayemisi Ogunbodede, said the programme was designed to support fresh graduates and provide them with platforms to showcase their talents and stories, adding that the artists went through intensive training and mentorship for months.

According to her, the exhibition was aimed at presenting the artists’ creativity, technical skills and commitment to sustainability through the use of eco-conscious materials and processes.

Ogunbodede said the organisation was committed to nurturing emerging artists through mentorship, financial support, professional guidance, curated platforms and international exposure as part of efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s creative economy.