CPPE: Fragile Disinflation Suggesting Weakening Inflationary Momentum 

Dike Onwuamaeze 

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has remarked that Nigeria’s inflation outlook in April 2026 reflected a fragile disinflation process as the pace of acceleration was relatively moderate and suggested a weakening in short-term inflationary momentum.

The CPPE noted that headline inflation rose marginally from 15.38 per cent in March to 15.69 per cent in April.

It said, “Overall, the April inflation numbers suggest that while inflationary momentum may be moderating, the disinflation process remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, especially geopolitical developments in the global energy market. 

“Sustained inflation moderation will depend largely on structural reforms and targeted interventions to reduce the cost of food, transportation and energy within the economy.”

Commenting on the inflation figures that was released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS), The Chief Executive Officer of CPPE Dr. Muda Yusuf, said that the moderation in the month-on-month inflation metrics across virtually all major indicators was very encouraging.

Yusuf said, “Headline month-on-month inflation declined by 2.05 per cent, food inflation eased by 0.54 per cent, core inflation declined by 3.0 per cent, urban inflation moderated by 1.3 per cent, while rural inflation dropped sharply by 3.9 per cent. 

“This suggests a weakening in short-term inflationary momentum.”

He, however, noted that inflation conditions have remained severe from a welfare and business cost perspective. 

“Food inflation stood at 16.06 per cent, while core inflation remained elevated at 15.86 per cent. 

“The dominant inflation drivers continue to be food, transportation, energy products, healthcare and restaurant services, which together accounted for about 87 per cent of the inflation pressure recorded in April.

“These are essential expenditure items which absorb the bulk of household income, particularly among low-income Nigerians,” Yusuf said.

The CPPE said that the current geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States are also intensifying inflationary risks. 

The conflict, according to the centre, has triggered renewed volatility in the global oil market, pushing up crude oil prices and transmitting higher energy costs into the domestic economy. 

It said, “Rising petrol, diesel and gas prices are fueling transportation, logistics and production costs across sectors, with significant pass-through effects on food prices and overall consumer inflation.

“This further underscores the structural and supply-side nature of Nigeria’s inflation challenge.”

Yusuf said that monetary tightening alone could not resolve inflation driven by energy costs, logistics inefficiencies, food supply disruptions and weak infrastructure conditions. 

According to him, additional monetary tightening could worsen financing costs for businesses, weaken investment and further constrain productivity growth.

He advised that “the policy priority should shift more decisively towards supply-side interventions. 

“Government at both federal and state levels should intensify measures to reduce energy costs, improve transportation infrastructure, strengthen food supply systems, enhance trade facilitation and support domestic productivity.”

He also advised firms to prioritise energy efficiency, dynamic pricing models, consumer segmentation and affordability-driven product strategies, including smaller pack sizes, as consumers become increasingly price-sensitive and discretionary spending weakens.