FG Unveils 2026 Outlook: 14,000 Communities Across 266 LGAs in 33 States Face High Flood Risk

• As Federal Ministry of Environment issues flood caution

Folalumi Alaran and Michael Olugbode in Abuja

No fewer than 14,118 communities across 266 local government areas in 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory are at high risk of flooding in 2026, the federal government disclosed on Wednesday.

The projection is contained in the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) presented by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) in Abuja yesterday.

In a related development, the Federal Ministry of Environment also issued a fresh flood warning cautioning that sustained heavy rainfall over several days could trigger flooding in vulnerable communities.

The alert, released by the Ministry’s Erosion, Flood and Coastal Zone Management Department through the National Flood Early Warning Centre (NFEWS), indicates that parts of the country may experience intense rainfall between April 13 and April 17, 2026, with a high likelihood of overflow in low-lying and flood-prone areas.

The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Joseph Utsev, said an additional 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states would experience moderate flood risk, while 923 communities in 77 LGAs are expected to face low flood incidents during the year.

He listed states likely to experience high flood risk to include Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, as well as the FCT.

Utsev also warned of impending flash and urban flooding in major cities such as Abakaliki, Abeokuta, Abuja, Asaba, Benin City, Birnin Kebbi, Calabar, Ibadan, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Makurdi, Onitsha, Port Harcourt and Yola, among others.

According to him, coastal and riverine states including Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo would experience flooding linked to rising sea levels and tidal surges.

The minister described the AFO as a critical planning tool for disaster preparedness, noting that early warning remained key to reducing the impact of floods on lives, infrastructure and the economy.

He said, “The Annual Flood Outlook is not just a scientific report but a call to action. Early information saves lives, protects livelihoods and reduces economic losses.”

Utsev added that the federal government had intensified efforts to modernise hydrological monitoring systems through deployment of automated river gauge stations, improved data collection and advanced modelling techniques.

He also disclosed that collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and state emergency agencies had been strengthened to enhance early warning dissemination and community preparedness.

Speaking at the event, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said the outlook underscored the need for proactive flood management and economic diversification.

Represented at the event, the President noted that recurrent flooding had remained a major national challenge, recalling the devastating 2024 flood in Maiduguri, Borno State, which prompted a shift towards anticipatory disaster management.

He said the Annual Flood Outlook had become a foundational document for planning early response, mitigation and evacuation strategies nationwide.

Tinubu also urged relevant ministries to develop frameworks for harnessing Nigeria’s water resources as part of efforts to transition from an oil-dependent economy to a water-based economy.

Earlier, the Director-General of NIHSA, Umar Ibrahim Mohammed, said the 2026 outlook was driven by improved technology and data systems.

He disclosed that the agency had upgraded its flood forecasting framework to a hybrid AI-integrated modelling system to enhance accuracy, reduce false alarms and improve early warning timelines.

Mohammed added that NIHSA’s flood dashboard had been transformed into a real-time geo-intelligence platform, supported by a mobile application to improve access to flood alerts and information.

He urged stakeholders, including state governments and local communities, to utilise the report effectively and take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of flooding.

The event drew policymakers, development partners, disaster management agencies and other stakeholders from across the country.