Otunuga: Naira Second Best Performing African Currency Against Dollar YtD

Nume Ekeghe 

Nigeria’s currency has emerged as one of Africa’s top performers in 2026, defying a volatile global backdrop, even as underlying pressures on the country’s external buffers continue to moun t.

Head of Market Research at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, who disclosed this in a statement said the naira ranks as the second best performing African currency against the dollar year-to-date, trailing only the Zambian kwacha.

He noted that the currency’s resilience has been particularly striking given the heightened geopolitical tensions that have unsettled global markets and weighed on emerging market assets.

Otunuga stated, “The Naira is the second best performing African currency against the dollar year-to-date, only surpassed by the Zambian Kwacha. Its stability through conflict-induced volatility is commendable, but such has come at a heavy cost.  Nigeria’s foreign-exchange reserves have fallen for 16 consecutive days through April 8 – falling to its lowest since mid-Feb to $48.94 billion. The CBN followed its pledge to defend in the local currency in March as deepening geopolitical risk punished emerging market assets.”

Nigeria’s CPI is expected to have eased to 13.4% yoy from the 15.1% in February. Persistent signs of easing inflationary pressures may encourage the CBN to cut rates in an environment where other central banks are considering hiking to tame conflict-induced inflation.

In the commodities market, crude oil benchmarks rallied strongly, with Brent crude climbing as much as 9 per cent to around $104 per barrel, as concerns over supply disruptions resurfaced.

He added: “In the commodity space, oil benchmarks surged as the US vowed to blockade all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rallied as much as 9% to roughly 104$ a barrel as supply shock fears returned with a vengeance. Deepening conflict may keep oil prices elevated, with triple digits potentially becoming a new normal amid extreme supply tightness.

“Gold initially declined on rising inflation concerns as oil prices surged. Despite prices jumping back above $4700 bears remain in control amid rising inflationary risks. Given how expectations have basically diminished over lower rates in 2026, gold is likely to remain on the backfoot with a stronger dollar keep bears in the game. Key levels of interest can be found $4825, $4700 and $4600.”