2027: As APC Begins Search for Kwara Governorship
For the All Progressives Congress, consensus has evolved beyond a mere procedural alternative. It has become a political philosophy aimed at preserving unity while strengthening electoral preparedness. As the party wraps up its National Convention today in Abuja, Adedayo Akinwale takes a look at the party’s adoption of consensus arrangements over primaries as its preferred choice of intra party leadership selection
Candidate
The All Progressives Congress (APC) has in recent years, deployed the consensus option as a strategic tool to consolidate internal cohesion and minimise rancour across its structures.
From the ward, local government, state and zonal congresses so far conducted, the party has consistently leaned on consensus arrangements to produce candidates and leaders with minimal friction.
The same template has also reportedly shaped the emergence of gubernatorial candidates in key states across the Southwest.
In states such as Lagos, Ogun, and Oyo, the party is said to be gravitating toward consensus figures—names like Obafemi Hamzat, Senator Solomon Adeola (Yayi), and Senator Sarafa Ali have featured prominently in these calculations.
A similar model was deployed in Osun, where Bola Oyebanji emerged as the party’s standard bearer to challenge the incumbent governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke.
For Yayi, his governorship ambition symbolises the age-long yearning of the Ogun West stakeholders, notably the marginalised Yewa/Awori people, his support base is vast and widespread because it represents fairness, it represents justice, it represents equity.
Such cannot be suppressed by any means because the power or momentum for the movement is not imposed from the top by political leaders, parties, or elites. Rather, it is driven by people’s conviction and genuine sense of purpose.
Beyond the “Ogun West Lokan” agenda, Adeola’s supporters see the ambition both as a regional expression of a historical grievance and a state-wide appeal to political ideals. This provides the moral and philosophical justification for his ambition, especially looking at it as a project for the benefit of the entire state’s political equilibrium.
In the case of Hazmat, it’s compensation for being a party man. When the Governor Advisory Council (GAC) kicked against the second term ambition of Akinyemi Ambode, Hamzat was favored to be the next governor of Lagos State. he already purchased the governorship form but was subsequently prevailed on by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu to step down for Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
Though, he eventually became his running mate and later on the Deputy Governor. It was based on this that it’s been speculated that President Tinubu and the GAC have agreed that it was time for Hazmat to wear the big shoe.
In the same vein, Ali representing Oyo South in the Senate was said to have been picked during a meeting by APC stalwarts from the South West during a meeting with President Bola Tinubu at his Ikoyi, Lagos residence last weekend.
However, Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu and Oyo APC have dismissed speculations.
It defeats the argument by opponents from Ogun Central and Ogun East who view the Ogun West agitation for power shift from the lens of a sense of entitlement, which they say, should not override the need for competence and state-wide electability
Against this backdrop, attention has now shifted to Kwara State, where the question on the lips of party stakeholders is straightforward: will the APC replicate the consensus model in deciding its 2027 governorship candidate?
This speculation gained further momentum earlier in the week when indications emerged that the party’s national leadership may have settled for Senator Saliu Mustapha as a possible consensus candidate for the 2027 gubernatorial election. While no official confirmation has been made, the development has triggered conversations across political blocs within the state.
How Far Can Saliu Mustapha Go?
By most political calculations, Mustapha represents a compelling profile within the APC’s evolving power dynamics in Kwara.
Young by political standards, financially endowed, and deeply connected across national political networks, he has steadily positioned himself as one of the most visible and viable contenders ahead of 2027.
Born over five decades ago to an Ilorin father and an Okun mother, Mustapha embodies a unique sociopolitical identity that resonates across Kwara’s diverse constituencies. His educational journey—from Saint Bartholomew Primary School in Wusasa, Zaria, to Command Secondary School in Kaduna, and later Kaduna Polytechnic—provided an early foundation, though his path would ultimately be defined by politics rather than engineering.
His political evolution dates back to 90’s with the then SDP National Secretary, Chief Alexis Anielo. Thereafter he served as the protem National Publicity Secretary of the Progressive Liberation Party. He quickly rose through the ranks, becoming National Organising Secretary of the Progressive Action Congress and later served as the Organising Secretary of the Conference of Nigerian Political Parties.
Mustapha’s trajectory gained national significance through his longstanding association with former President Muhammadu Buhari during the opposition years. From his role in The Buhari Organisation to his involvement in the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential campaigns, he built networks that would later prove instrumental in his rise.
As a founding figure in the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), where he served as Deputy National Chairman, and a key actor in the historic 2013 merger that birthed the APC, Mustapha’s credentials within the party’s legacy structure remain firmly established. He’s also reputed as the oldest surviving founding chieftain of the APC in Kwara State.
Beyond politics, his business interests in real estate and contracting further expanded his influence, reinforcing a reputation for resourcefulness and strategic reach. His emergence in the Senate in 2023 marked a new phase.
Initially underestimated, he quickly became a visible player, particularly during the leadership contest that produced Senate President Godswill Akpabio. Political insiders credit him with playing a strategic role in mobilising first-time senators in support of Akpabio, a move that elevated his standing within the National Assembly.
As Chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture and Agricultural Production Services, Mustapha has leveraged his position to facilitate developmental interventions, particularly in agricultural infrastructure and rural development.
Yet, Nigerian politics is rarely determined by popularity alone. Party structures, delegate control, and executive influence often play decisive roles. In Kwara, Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq remains a central figure with significant influence over these levers.
For Mustapha, the path ahead will depend on whether his growing goodwill can translate into a cohesive political machinery capable of navigating these structural realities.
Mustapha as the Kwara Consensus Option
The possible emergence of Senator Mustapha as a consensus candidate carries far-reaching implications for the APC in Kwara.
First, he is widely seen as a potential unifying figure. Over the years, he has cultivated relationships across nearly all political blocs within the party and beyond, making his candidacy relatively easier to market internally. From long standing actors to newer entrants, his network cuts across divides that have historically shaped Kwara politics.
His decades-long political journey has enabled him to build enduring alliances. Though he experienced friction with AbdulRazaq in the past, recent developments suggest a thaw in relations, with both figures increasingly seen together at public and private engagements. This reconciliation, observers say, removes one of the major obstacles that could have hindered a consensus arrangement.
Apart from his expansive network of friends across the party, he has also deliberately leveraged his office to build bridges and cultivate relationships across political divides.
This wide acceptance was further reinforced during a courtesy visit by the leadership of the Ilorin Emirate Descendants Progressives Union (IEDPU), led by its National President, ACG Abdulmumini Abdulmalik (rtd). The union commended Mustapha for his developmental initiatives and community-focused projects, noting their visible impact across the Emirate.
Similarly, backing from student groups within the Emirate highlights his resonance among younger demographics. Among students, Mustapha enjoys considerable popularity. Earlier this month, at a Ramadan Lecture organised in his honour by the Amalgamated Students Union of Ilorin Emirate (National Headquarters), he received a strong endorsement for the governorship.
The lecture, themed “Leadership as Amanah (Trust) in Islam,” drew prominent figures from across the Emirate, including traditional rulers, religious leaders, and community stakeholders.
Speaking on behalf of the students, the National President of the union, Sheikh Zulkainaini Opolo, expressed satisfaction with Mustapha’s performance over the past three years in the National Assembly and called on him to contest the governorship.
The Saraki Factor
However, the 2027 race is unlikely to be a walkover. Former Senate President Bukola Saraki remains a formidable force, with a deeply entrenched political structure and a clear determination to stage a comeback.
However, Mustapha’s profile appears well-suited to neutralise such an advantage. As the Turaki of Ilorin Emirate, he commands significant respect within traditional and religious institutions—two critical pillars that often shape electoral outcomes in the district.
Saraki’s strategy, according to observers, includes fielding a candidate from Kwara Central—the state’s most populous senatorial district, which accounts for over half of its voting strength. Many see this as a masterstroke considering the dominance of Ilorin Emirate in the politics of the state.
Weighing in on this recently, the Director-General of the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS), Prof. Abubakar Suleiman, warned President Bola Tinubu and Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq to exercise caution in considering the zoning of the APC governorship ticket to Kwara North ahead of the 2027 elections.
Suleiman’s intervention came amid ongoing discussions within the ruling party over whether to rotate power to the northern zone of the state in line with calls for inclusivity and political balance.
According to him, political parties typically base such decisions on measurable factors, including voter population, political structures, and historical voting patterns. Where these factors do not support a particular zone, he warned, zoning could weaken a party’s chances.
“No political party takes the risk of zoning to where it does not believe it has a competitive advantage,” he added.
Suleiman referenced the 2023 general election, noting that the PDP made a strategic miscalculation and came back with burnt fingers. He said the party has now learnt its lessons and is now zoning back to Kwara Central to gain the electoral advantage.
“It will be risky to take a position that does not place the party in a comfortable position to win,” he said.
In that context, Mustapha’s potential candidacy could serve as a counterweight, particularly given his standing within the Ilorin Emirate and his acceptance among traditional and religious institutions.
A Defining Decision for APC
Ultimately, the decision before the APC is both strategic and consequential. Adopting a consensus candidate in Kwara could help the party avoid internal fractures and present a united front ahead of what promises to be a highly competitive election. Yet, consensus also comes with risks—particularly if perceived as imposition by aggrieved stakeholders.
For now, Mustapha appears to embody many of the attributes the party may seek in such a candidate: acceptability, reach, experience, and growing grassroots appeal. Whether these qualities will translate into an official endorsement remains to be seen.
What is clear, however, is that the coming weeks will define the trajectory of the APC in Kwara. And as the debate over consensus intensifies, one question continues to linger across the state’s political landscape: can early momentum be transformed into a winning coalition in 2027?
All these factors and more taken together suggest that if he emerges, Mustapha may yet emerge as the APC’s most strategic and broadly acceptable candidate for the 2027 governorship election in Kwara State.
