CRMI: Macroeconomic Pressures, Cybersecurity, FX Volatility Top Major Drivers of Risk in Nigeria

Oluchi Chibuzor

The 2026 Chartered Risk Management Institute of Nigeria (CRMI) Risk Outlook has highlighted macroeconomic instability, foreign exchange volatility, regulatory and policy risk, and cyber and technology-related exposure as major drivers of risk in Nigeria going into 2026.

This is because the report explored risk perceptions and exposure across selected sectors, banking and financial services, oil and gas/energy, manufacturing and infrastructure development, and the Public Sector, drawing on survey responses, sector-specific indicators, and recent economic developments.

Speaking at the launch of the report in Lagos yesterday, the President/Chairman of Council, CRMI, Kevin Ugwuoke, said this outlook provides the strategic tools for the various stakeholders across the economy.

According to him, “The Annual Risk Outlook serves as a strategic thought leadership publication designed to provide insights into emerging risks, critical trends, and key developments that are likely to shape the operating environment for organisations in the year ahead.

“The 2026 Risk Outlook highlights key economic, financial, technological, environmental, and geopolitical risks that organisations must proactively consider in their strategic planning and decision-making processes. 

The Risk Outlook we launch today is therefore more than a report – it is a strategic guide designed to help organisations anticipate emerging risks, strengthen preparedness, and make informed decisions in an increasingly uncertain world.”

On other sectors not captured in the report, he urged sector leaders to always respond to the survey to enable the institute to capture their sector appropriately in the expected annual report.

Delivering the report, Partner and Head of Financial Services Risk Management, Ernst & Young (EY), Mr. Abiodun Ogunoiki, explained that this risk outlook report is informed by a risk survey distributed to 260 senior risk leaders across Nigeria’s key sectors.

He also explained that responses are uneven across sectors, as the results provide a credible directional view of system-wide risk dynamics.

Ogunoiki acknowledged that these indices are used throughout the report as interpretive tools rather than precise measurements, allowing relative risk signals to be compared across themes, roles, and sectors.

“The 2026 Annual Risk Outlook Report provides a forward-looking assessment of Nigeria’s risk environment as the economy transitions through a period of structural adjustment and policy recalibration. Developed in collaboration with senior risk leaders across the Nigerian sector, the report combines macroeconomic analysis with market perspectives to highlight the risks most likely to shape strategic decisions, operating resilience, and governance priorities in 2026,” he noted.

On the findings, the survey results indicate that despite improving macro indicators, risk sentiment remains cautious.

According to the report, “Respondents consistently highlight macroeconomic Instability, foreign exchange volatility, regulatory and policy risk, and cyber and technology-related exposure as major drivers of risk in Nigeria going into 2026. These risks are assessed as high impact and persistent, with most respondents expecting pressures to remain material over the medium term rather than dissipate quickly.”

The report equally noted that these findings and more imply a central theme of this outlook, noting that 2026 is less about identifying new risks and more about managing the speed, interaction, and transmission of known risks within a reforming economy.

However, the report combines survey insights, risk analysis, and system-level risk mapping to provide a forward-looking view of Nigeria’s evolving risk environment.

The analyses move progressively from risk perception to risk interaction and governance implications, allowing readers to understand not only which risks are most significant, but also how they interact within the broader operating environment.

“For boards and senior management, the challenge ahead is not whether growth resumes; instead, it will depend on whether entities’ capital appetite, capital allocation decisions, and governance capabilities are aligned both to withstand near-term volatility and to meet rising prudential expectations being set by regulators as Nigeria prepares for larger-scale economic activity.

“Regulatory and Policy Risk “ is one of the key risks influencing strategic decision-making. As Nigeria continues to implement fiscal, monetary, and sectoral reforms, institutions should ensure that policy developments are actively monitored and integrated into executive briefings and strategic planning discussions. This approach allows entities to anticipate regulatory shifts relative to responding reactively to policy changes,” the report stated.

On her part, the Deputy Director, Head Operational Risk Management, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Eyitoyosi Shonibare, said that the report in itself holds opportunities for strengthening risk governance practices across the financial system.

She noted that the nation’s risk environment is obviously now clearly interconnected and neopolitically amplified, stressing that “it is coming at a period where we have seen great shocks in the geopolitical economy.”

According to her, “The major thing that we should be looking at is the fact that execution discipline remains imperative for financial institutions and indeed other institutions, because execution discipline will determine institutional resilience. Across the sectors that were identified in this annual risk outlook, it shows that risks were well-documented, and I dare say, understood.

“We must go beyond the normal classification evaluation to reporting the true execution of risk mitigation. To do this, we believe that it will be important to start to develop structures that enable faster escalation of your early warning signs.”

For the Chairman of the event, Mr. Opeyemi Agbaje, risk managers have their work cut out for them.

“I think concerning Nigerian macro, they can be positive. I also think they need to continue the vigilance with what is emerging from the global environment. “And then domestically, of course, there are regulators who are becoming more assertive and less predictable. But I think it’s an excellent attempt at contextualising Nigeria’s risk environment, and I congratulate CRMI and Ernst & Young for the great work done,” he said.