Report: CBN Monetary Discipline Will Stabilise FX Rate, Reduce Inflationary Pressure 

Dike Onwuamaeze 

A report by Comercio Partners has declared that the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary discipline, independence and reliance on data will further stablise the foreign exchange market and reduce inflationary pressure on the economy in 2026.

Comercio Partners in its macro economic outlook titled, “Policy Shock to Structural Reset: Charting a Sustainable Economic Path,” projected that under best case scenario the exchange rate may narrow further to N1,200 per Dollar while inflation rate will further decline to between 10 per cent and 11 per cent in 2026. It also projected 4.5 per cent GDP growth for the economy this year.

Commenting on the monetary policy decisions of the CBN, Research Analyst, Ms. Olamide Ologunagbe. said that the apex bank demonstrated improved independence and data-driven policy decisions in holding rates for much of 2025 and implemented a 50-basis-point cut toward the year-end.

Ologunagbe  said that the best case “inflation outlook for 2026 will be around 10 per cent to 11 per cent in H1 2026 driven by CBN’s “monetary discipline, improved agricultural output, stable oil prices and continued FX stability.”

The Comercio Partners macro economic outlook report stated that Nigeria’s growth outlook is constructive but constrained. 

It said: “Real GDP growth is projected to approach 4.5 per cent, supported by momentum in the non-oil sector, improved credit conditions, and stable external balances.”

The report highlighted that the services would remain the primary growth driver in 2026 with ICT, trade, transport, and finance continuing to expand faster than headline GDP. 

It stated that agriculture is expected to recover modestly, assuming stable weather conditions and gradual improvements in logistics and security. 

For the manufacturing sector, the report said that it’s growth would remain positive, but sub-optimal, constrained by energy costs and limited domestic demand elasticity.

The report stated that monetary policy is expected to transition from tight to calibrated easing in 2026. 

“As inflation moderates and FX stability holds, the CBN is likely to gradually reduce policy rates to improving credit transmission and investment appetite. This shift should support consumption, private investment, and equity market valuations, but the pace of easing will remain cautious given inflation risks,” it said.

The report projected that the fiscal policy would remain expansionary, with the 2026 budget projecting a deficit above 4.28 per cent of GDP.

It said, “Capital spending will focus on infrastructure and social priorities, while debt service will continue to absorb a large share of evenues. The sustainability of this path will depend on revenue mobilisation, oil price stability, and borrowing costs.”

The report also said that the external sector outlook is stable but vulnerable, adding that oil exports and portfolio inflows will remain critical for FX  stability” in 2026.

It said: “The inflation outlook for H1’26 is asymmetric, with downside risks vulnerable 

to policy, FX, and supply shocks. Inflation in the first half of the year is  expected to remain on a disinflationary path, but at a slower, less linear pace than in late 2025. Food supply dynamics, FX stability, and the timing of monetary policy adjustments will shape the trajectory. In a base-case scenario, headline inflation settles in the 14–16 per cent range. This  assumes policy continuity, gradual monetary easing, and a broadly stable  FX market. 

“The Central Bank eases rates in stages, toward 22–25 per cent, as inflation moderates but remains above target.  Food inflation slows but does not collapse, reflecting mixed harvest outcomes and persistent logistics and security constraints. Core inflation remains elevated, driven by rents, transport, and services, limiting the speed of overall disinflation.”

The report projected that best-case scenario places headline inflation at 10–11 per cent. 

“This outcome required sustained FX stability, disciplined policy coordination, and a strong 

agricultural cycle. Bumper harvests improve food availability and reduce price pressures, while better farm-to-market logistics lower distribution costs. Monetary policy, which had been in a tight stance, with cautious rate cuts as inflation approached single digits. 

“Under this scenario, food inflation becomes the major concern of disinflation, allowing headline inflation to converge faster without reigniting FX or demand-side pressures. The worst-case scenario sees inflation re-accelerating to 18–22 per cent.  This path is driven by policy slippage and renewed FX stress. Delays in FX liberalisation  or poorly sequenced rate cuts trigger a loss of confidence, pushing the naira toward N1,700/$ or weaker,” it said.