Nigeria’s GDP Expands By 4.07% in Q4 2025 on Strong Non-oil Performance

*Economy grew by 3.87% in full year 2025 

*Edun: Performance underscores strengthening macroeconomic stability

*Stock market gains N24.4trn in two  months*Naira sustains gains

Ndubuisi Francis, James Emejo in Abuja, Nume Ekeghe and Kayode Tokede in Lagos

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.07 per cent in real terms in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4 2025) compared to 3.98 per cent in the preceding quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed yesterday.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, said the performance underscored strengthening macroeconomic stability and the tangible impact of the federal government’s economic reform programme under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

This emerged as data compiled by THISDAY showed that investors’ average return on the Nigerian stock market increased significantly by N24.4trillion in the first two months of 2026 amid growing fundamentals and impressive corporate earnings by listed companies.
Equally, the naira strengthened across the foreign exchange (FX) market in February, posting gains at both the official and parallel windows amid improving dollar liquidity and sustained policy support.
According to the GDP Q4, 2025 report, on annual basis, the country recorded a growth rate of 3.87 per cent in 2025, compared with 3.38 per cent in 2024.
In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP at basic price stood at N122.81 trillion in nominal terms compared to N113 58 trillion in the preceding quarter.
Aggregate GDP recorded a nominal growth of 17.55 per cent when compared with N104.47 trillion in Q4 2024.
However, real GDP stood at N63.97 trillion in Q4 compared with N57.03 trillion in the preceding quarter, the statistical agency stated.
The non-oil sector led the growth in the review period, contributing 97.13 per cent compared to 96.56 per cent in Q3 and 97.20 per cent in Q4 2024.

The services sector contributed 55.92 per cent to GDP compared to 55.87 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
However, the oil sector contributed 2.87 per cent to total real GDP in Q4 compared to 3.44 per cent in Q3 and 2.80 per cent in Q4 2024.
Overall, the oil sector contributed 3.53 per cent to growth in 2025, higher than 3.38 per cent in 2024.
Also, in Q4, average daily oil production increased to 1.58 million barrels per day (mbpa), compared to 1.64 mbpd in Q3 and 1.54 mbpa in the same quarter of 2024.

However, agriculture contributed 28.66 per cent to aggregate GDP in real terms in Q4 compared to 31.21 per cent in the preceding quarter, and 28.68 per cent in Q4 2025.
Overall, the sector contributed 27.55 per cent to GDP in 2025 from 27.81 per cent in 2024.
The manufacturing sector contributed 8.34 per cent to GDP compared to 8.06 per cent in Q3 and 9.27 per cent in Q4 2024.
In 2025, the sector contributed 8.46 per cent compared to 8.85 per cent in 2024.

Edun said the development marked the second time in a decade—excluding the immediate post-pandemic rebound—that quarterly growth has surpassed the four percent threshold.

The Minister, according to a statement by the Assistant Director, Information and Public Relations, Mrs. Uloma Amadi, noted that the figure followed the 4.23 percent growth recorded in Q2 2025 and represented a clear acceleration from the 3.76 percent posted in Q3 2024.

“The performance underscores strengthening macroeconomic stability and the tangible impact of the federal government’s economic reform programme under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” he added.

The Minister noted that the growth recorded in Q4 2025 was driven by sustained expansion across all three major sectors of the economy:

 “Notably, approximately 30 subsectors recorded growth rates above 3.0%, underscoring the scope and structural depth of the expansion. This signals that growth is no longer concentrated in isolated segments but increasingly diversified across the economy,” he added.

Commenting on the full year GDP performance, Edun said: “This expansion reflects strengthening fundamentals, improved fiscal coordination, disciplined expenditure management, and reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic credibility.”

The Minister further noted that this latest data sends a strong signal to foreign investors, multilateral institutions, and global economic stakeholders that Nigeria’s reform trajectory is gaining traction and is being consolidated.

He further highlighted the fact that with improving macroeconomic coordination, strengthening revenue mobilisation, enhanced transparency in public finance, and ongoing structural reforms, Nigeria is positioning itself as a stable and competitive destination for long-term capital.

The Ministry of Finance reiterated its commitment to disciplined reform implementation, strategic coordination across government institutions, and transparent engagement with domestic and international stakeholders.

 Meanwhile, investors average return on the Nigerian stock market increased significantly by N24.4 trillion in the first two months of 2026 amid growing fundamentals and impressive corporate earnings by listed companies.

When the market closed for trading yesterday, the market capitalisation of all listed stocks stood at N123.76 trillion, representing an increase of N24.4 trillion or 24.5 per cent, up from the N99.376 trillion it opened for trading in 2026.  

The market capitalisation reached a peak of N125 trillion on February 20, 2026, before closing at N123.76 trillion.  

The breakdown by THISDAY revealed that the market capitalisation in January 2026 appreciated by N6.8 trillion to close at N106.15 trillion, and in February 2026, it appreciated significantly by N17.61 trillion to close at N123.763trillion.

The N17.61 trillion gain in February 2026, was influenced by the National Pension Commission’s (PenCom) decision to raise equity limits for pension funds.

The market advanced by N6.79 trillion in one week, as the new policy saw the injection of fresh liquidity into the stock market.

Analysts stated that the stock market performance in the first two months of 2026, was driven by strong corporate earnings and stronger fundamentals of the bourse.

Vice President, Highcap Securities, Mr. David Adnori, stated that the stock market performance between January and  February 2026  was a reflection of stability in the nation’s economy and increasing foreign investors’ participation.  

He explained further that investors were taking into consideration impressive full 2025 financial results from public companies listed on the stock exchange, and their impacts have continued to drive the prices of dividend-paying companies.  

MD/CEO, Globalview Capital Limited,  Mr. Aruna Kebira, attributed the stock market’s N24.4 trillion gain on expected 2025 FY impressive corporate earnings by listed firms and improved economy data in the country.  

According to him, the stability in the FX and impressive yield on returns continued to influence market participation and it is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2026.

In the meantime, the naira strengthened across the FX market in February, posting gains at both the official and parallel windows amid improving dollar liquidity and sustained policy support.

At the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) market, the naira appreciated by 1.94 per cent month-on-month, closing at N1,363.39/$ yesterday, compared with the N1,390.36/$ it was on February 2.

The steady appreciation reflects relative calm in the market and a moderation in demand pressures during the period under review.

The parallel market mirrored this trend, with the naira gaining 7.07 per cent over the month. It firmed from N1,485/$ at the beginning of February to close at N1,380/$ on February 28, narrowing the spread between both segments of the market.