2022, YEAR OF MENDING AND HOPES

Rajendra Aneja outlines the key challenges that the world will confront and have to resolve next year

The United Nations has declared 2022, as the year of “Artisanal Fisheries and Aquaculture.” More appropriately, 2022 should be celebrated as the “Year of Hope” after the Covid-19 holocaust of 202o-2021.

The key priority for all nations in 2022, will be to continue the unrelenting fight against Covid-19 and its variants. Only 46 percent of the world has received both doses of the vaccine. Again, only 56 percent of the global population has received one dose. Till about 80 percent of the world is fully inoculated, we will not be safe.

Vaccination priority should be given to nations in Africa and other developing countries. They have inoculated just three to four percent of their populations. Low-income countries like Burkina Faso, Benin, etc., have vaccinated less than two percent of their populations. Distressing.

A key challenge in vaccinating the entire world by end-2022, will be to convince non-believers to inoculate. There would be about 20 to 25 percent of the people, who do not believe in the vaccines.
President Biden will continue to be the pivotal global leader. Despite the temporary hiccups that the Democratic Party is facing, he will stand tall. He will have to accelerate the fight against Covid-19 and galvanise the economy.

President Putin will continue ploughing a lonely furrow, elbowing Ukraine needlessly. Putin has managed to remain in power and popular with his people. Putin’s people love him; Putin dolls sell on Moscow’s streets.
The real conflict in the world will be via the translucent “bamboo curtain” between the USA and China. China will continue its political and economic aggrandisements, especially in Asia and Africa by funding infrastructural projects. America will be peeved with Chinese expansionism. The Chinese have fat wallets. They will spend.

Boris Johnson will continue to amuse and obfuscate his people, but will thrive. The new German leadership may struggle, without Mama Merkel. Afghanistan will struggle to find money to run the country. Africans across the continent, will scuffle to improve their lives.

Hopefully, there will be no wars. We should focus on fighting hunger and poverty, which have augmented voraciously, in 2020 and 2021. The world should not return to old squabbles. Covid-19 should have taught us humility and the value of global cooperation.

The IMF has predicted a growth rate of 4.9 percent in 2022. With Covid-19 variants teasing the world, expect the global economy to be tantalising. Whilst the USA economy could grow around three percent next year, China with its Zero-Covid policy could grow around five percent. Overall the global economy could stutter around three percent growth. Developing countries in Asia and Africa will lag.

Economic disparities will widen. According to Oxfam, the richest one percent of the world’s population has more than twice the wealth as 6.9 billion people. Around 811 million people sleep hungry every night. Two billion people suffer from malnutrition globally.

The world will need at least three years, to vanquish the ghosts of Covid-19. Real estate prices will be dejected. Stock markets will oscillate anxiously, depending on new mutants of Covid-19. Gold prices will hover around USD 1,875 to 1,900 per ounce, though its future is uncertain. Oil prices will dance, but steady around USD 60 to 70 per barrel, despite the tango in the last quarter of 2021. There are no get-rich-quick investment avenues for the rich.

Inflation will keep the world sleepless. It will plague developing countries too. Fractured supply chains will accentuate price hikes. Expect to pay more for food in 2022.
Climate change will dominate seminars and conclaves. Action will be scarce. Greta Thunberg will fume.
International travel may lubricate the global economy. However, expect a cautious opening, with quarantines and Covid-passes.

Statistics however, do not reveal the true economic pains in every country. The agony and poverty suffered by citizens, cannot be gleaned through digits. People have lost faith, family members, homes, livelihoods, savings, during the last two years. Migratory labour, which fled to their countries, have yet to return.

Government across the world, especially in the developing countries in Asia, Africa, etc., should spend copiously on social benefits like subsidised food and medicines for the poor. Governments in Asia and Africa should suspend income taxes for the middle and lower incomed, for two years. Taxes on basic foods like flour, sugar, lentils, edible oils, etc., should be suspended to help the underprivileged.

Nations should undertake rigorous reviews of their health spends and resources. People across the world have died waiting for hospital beds, medicines, vaccines, oxygen, etc. Priority should be given to establishing hospitals, beds, ICUs’, medical colleges, nursing institutes, etc. Global growth is meaningless to the 124 million people punched below the poverty line of USD two per day, during the pandemic. About 698 million people, nine percent of the world, lives below the poverty line now. 2022 should be a year for “Humane Economics”, where the poor come before polemics.

The world will relish the FIFA football matches in Qatar. However, Latino fans will have to forego their beers, shorts, tank-tops and spaghetti strap dresses during these matches. Qatar frowns on alcohol and revealing apparel. The new hunger for medals in developing countries, will find satiation at the Commonwealth Games. Novak Djokovic will shine, breaking new records.
The world will be hunting for a new James Bond, since Daniel Craig has bowed out. A cinema famished world, will troop into theatres.

So, hope in 2022 depends on conquering Covid-19, mending fences between America and China, managing climate change, spurring economic growth and reducing disparities. Hopefully, leaders will listen.
My soulmate Patricia and I just hope for a Corona free world. Then, we can go for long walks amongst the pine tree forests in the mountains. We are happy with the cold air, silences and white clouds around us. It has been a long time since Patricia and I held hands and walked endlessly, as soft, white, snowflakes waft down. It is heavenly.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

–Aneja was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries and “Business Express”. He is a Management Consultant.