Postscript by Waziri Adio
Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State has managed to remain the main issue in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This is despite that he lost the party’s presidential ticket by a clear margin to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar during the party’s primaries in late May and, in short order, also lost the chance to be Atiku’s running-mate to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State. The leading opposition party has known no peace since then. Wike, who once dramatized how he was going to win the party’s presidential ticket because his name was supposedly on everyone’s lips everywhere, has been at the centre of it all.
He fires and receives salvos. With his ubiquitous live band, possibly a first in our politics, he savages then mocks his adversaries, providing quality entertainment to the opposition and some neutrals, and obviously riling PDP members, their sympathisers and some other neutrals. He openly hobnobs with the opposition, ready to receive anyone, obviously enjoying the attention that goes with being the current beautiful bride of Nigerian politics. Despite all these, his party’s grandees, including the presidential candidate, have made repeated attempts, within and outside the country, to appease him. They are yet to succeed.
Another attempt was made on Thursday when the chairman of the PDP’s Board of Trustees (BOT), Senator Walid Jubrin, stepped down. He was replaced by Senator Adolphus Wabara, former Senate President, who became the acting chairman. That supposedly addressed one of the advertised grouses of the Wike camp: the need for regional balance in the leadership of the decision-making organs of the party. But Wike was unimpressed, angry even. He dedicated a long tirade to what he considered a cosmetic concession, insisting the candidate and the chairman of the party should not come from the same region, saying unsavoury things about both of them, and promising more in days to come.
PDP clearly has a Wike issue, one that has to be resolved one way or the other.
Before examining the options available to PDP, it is important first to understand how the governor of just one state became a major force within a party as big as PDP. I can think of three reasons. One obvious explanation is that Wike is the governor of a well-resourced state that also happens to be one of PDP’s strongholds, and a must-win for the party in what is shaping up to be a tight race.
Rivers has 3.69 million registered voters, now the fourth highest in the country, and PDP will definitely need Rivers’ votes and resources to stand in good stead. The fact that Mr. Peter Obi, the flagbearer of the Labour Party, is likely to eat into the traditional PDP votes in the South East and some other places further raises the profile of Rivers and enhances Wike’s leverage. Electoral politics, it is said, is a game of addition, not subtraction. And in the mathematics of elections, double subtractions do not amount to an addition.
Second is that Wike is actually not a lone wolf. He has at least three other sitting PDP governors openly with him and three others said to be secretly with him. That means that Wike inclusive, between four to seven of the current 13 PDP governors are in his camp, amounting to between 31% and 54% of all PDP governors. Given the outsize role that governors play in our politics and our elections, this is not a trivia slice. To be sure, many within and outside the party take issues with Wike’s style and comportment. But it appears that Wike has become the rallying point to the aggrieved and the alienated within his party. This group includes those still not happy about the decision to throw the party’s presidential ticket open, instead of zoning it to the south, a decision which eventually led the emergence of Atiku as the candidate.
A third reason is that Wike literally carried the party on his back, especially post-2019 elections. Having oil money and the willingness to spend, no doubt, helped him in this quest. As I mentioned in a July piece, PDP has been like a fish out of water since it lost the presidency in 2015. Robbed of the imposing stature of a sitting president and abandoned by its former presidents, PDP lacked a rallying force. Post-2019, the defeated presidential candidate practically relocated. Wike stepped into the vacuum to hold the party together, orchestrating consequential actions (including the removal and replacement of party officials), and expanding his network within and outside the party. He established a hold that almost got him the party’s ticket. That hold didn’t fizzle out with his failure to snap the ticket.
I think it is a combination of these three factors that transformed Wike into a power centre within such a dominant party. These factors also strengthen Wike’s hands in taking on and asking for the resignation of his party’s chairman, Senator Iyorchia Ayu. Wike frames his issue with Ayu in equity terms: if the candidate is from the north, the party chairman should be from the south. But it seems there is more between the two of them, given how personal and suggestive their public exchanges have been. Ayu has insisted he is going nowhere, and he even got a vote of confidence from the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) on Thursday. Wike maintains the only condition for truce is Ayu’s exit. Each is expected to further dig their heels, until something gives.
Many have had to speculate about Wike’s endgame, including whether he would sheathe his sword if his Ayu demand is met or he would keep on making demands or he would leave PDP for another party. With politicians, it is difficult to say. He may just be seeking a pound of flesh. He may merely be seeking enough accommodation for himself and his camp. He may be in it just for the attention. And he may also just be playing the spoiler, especially as it is unlikely that he will leave PDP.
Clearly, PDP cannot afford these unending battles within. Based on a careful appreciation of forces at play, the party may consider three options for addressing the Wike challenge. None of the options will be without potential costs. The first will be to call Wike’s bluff, end all the overtures and concessions, and find ways of compensating elsewhere for the potential downsides of snubbing him and his camp.
The second will be to isolate him into a lone wolf by cutting the ground off around him. It is possible that some in his camp might have more pressing concerns than who the chairman is and could be seduced with immediate and future offers. Given how close-knit Wike’s camp appears, this is more possible than probable. The last option is to give in to Wike’s demand and ease out Ayu, with the hope that Wike can live with only that concession, and he and his supporters will then throw their full weight behind the party and its candidate.
Given its history and current spread, PDP remains the best-positioned party to take on the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2023 general election. But it can only do that effectively if it puts its house in order. At the moment, despite its best efforts, PDP is still a divided house. But it has the luck of time, as the elections are at least five months away. That is enough time to resolve the Wike and other internal issues. However, it is also enough time for things to completely fall apart.
