Does APC Need a Northern Candidate to Defeat Abubakar?

Razak Aigbore argues that the All Progressives Congress does not need a Northern presidential candidate to defeat the Peoples Democratic Party presidential standard bearer, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar

The emergence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has spurred arguments that the All Progressives Congress (APC) has no option but to pick a northern candidate if it wishes to win the 2023 presidential election.

The argument is on the assumption that the votes in the north are region- based and Abubakar will overrun the North if APC fields a candidate from the South.

This is not true. There is no candidate in the APC in the North today who can defeat Abubakar on the strength of his visibility not to talk of popularity. None of the northern candidates has a reputation beyond his state that can win most northern votes. For example, the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, has never won a popular election beyond a senatorial – Yobe North Senatorial District. He couldn’t win majority votes among only 100 Senators in 2015 again Bukola Saraki, even with the support of party big wigs. It was not until he had the clear support of President Buhari in 2019 that he was able to win the Senate Presidency. Even three years after, he has little name recognition in the North-east let alone in the rest of the country. This is even less so for Badaru. Therefore, the northern candidates can only leverage the reputation of President Muhammadu Buhari.

The votes in the North since 2003 elections have been dominated mostly by General Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari’s reputation in the North is what APC needs to win the 2023 elections. Besides, APC has 14 state governors in the North. If their combination with the reputation of President Buhari in the North cannot deliver the region to the APC, neither Lawan or Badaru or any other northern politician can do it. Atiku will easily beat either candidate in the north and the south.

On the contrary, the APC has given the South a sense of entitlement with the understanding that it will pick its candidate from the region after eight years of a northern presidency. The party runs the risk of losing the entire South if it fails to fulfill the promise. It’s surest zone is the South-west. It was the South-west combining their votes with Buhari’s votes in the North that made Buhari president in 2015 and got him re-elected in  2019. A denial of the Presidency to the South-west or any of the southern zones will push South-west votes towards Abubakar whose network in the zone dates back to his PFN, SDP, AC, ACN, and APC days. Neither Lawan nor Badaru can win significant let alone majority votes in the South. Thus, the APC will be throwing the presidency to Abubakar if it chooses either of the two or any other northern candidate.

A southern candidate that will complement Buhari/APC governors influence and votes in the North with southern votes is the only guarantee of APC victory in the 2023 presidential election. It was the combination that delivered the victory of 2015 and 2019. Changing a tested winning formula could be disastrous for APC.

The prospect of a northern presidency under APC for 16 unbroken years is a big turn off for the South, particularly the South-west, that the party should not risk – more so when it cannot guarantee 100 percent northern votes with the Abubakar candidacy.