By Sinmi Olayebi
The nature of pandemics, as we’ve seen throughout history, is that between its onset and its containment, there is a constant fluctuation – sudden dips and sudden spikes in cases, and government responses and reactions; the only constant is the permanent state of uncertainty in which nations and their citizens live. Certainly, we can all agree, the COVID-19 pandemic has been no different.
One year after the pandemic came into full effect, by March 2021, with a second wave and multiple strains of the virus under our belts, the world had recorded a total of over 124 million cases and 2.7 million deaths. The point at which we currently find ourselves, however, is nearing the end of this long and dark tunnel.
For starters, vaccines are being rolled out in 41 countries — the United Kingdom was the first country in the world to kick off the administration of vaccines to its citizens in December 2020, followed by countries like South Africa, Germany, Canada, the United States, and more recently, Nigeria.
Now, case rates are dropping; lockdowns have been lifted; and the world is returning to a semblance of normalcy – pesky face masks included. Yet, there is a lot of doubt as to whether we truly are coming out of the pandemic, and if so, how this end and its aftermath will likely play out. The answer, I believe, lies in how we got here in the first place.
The Onset
It wouldn’t be far-fetched to say that much of the world was in a state of disconnect when the COVID-19 first emerged in December 2019, in Wuhan, China. That quickly changed: by January, Japan reported its first case, followed closely by the Republic of Korea, Vietnam, and Singapore. By the end of March 2020, 114 countries had reported a total of 118,000 cases and over 4,000 deaths – the situation had devolved into a full blown pandemic.
In Nigeria, despite the initial skepticism around COVID-19, the first case was confirmed on the 27th of February 2020 in Lagos State — patient X, an individual from Italy who had potentially come in contact with no less than 200 individuals.
Within the next three months, things escalated rapidly, as we recorded a grim milestone – 10,000 cases, and nearly 300 deaths. In hindsight, as many health professionals have stipulated, it is higher than likely that the spread of the virus to the rest of the world began much earlier than January 2020. And that highlights the first error made by our world leaders – detachment.
Globalisation has made it such that countries are much more connected than they ever were in the history of the world. Cross-border business relationships and mass migration have made it such that economic trends, as well as environmental and socio-cultural developments in one country, amongst other factors, now have ripple effects that have the potential to impact citizens in completely different hemispheres.
Thus, a fast-spreading virus in a region in China – the world’s most populous nation and one of the world’s leading business hubs – is inevitably bound to have far-reaching effects. The scale of the pandemic and its rapid spread, was birthed in the limited response to that initial development.
The Side Effects
In the throes of the pandemic, as countries began to lock down to curb the spread of the virus amongst citizens on their shores, industries suffered enormously. For starters, there was the aviation industry – from the mass grounding of air traffic to border closures and shelter-in-place policies across the globe, airlines have lost a significant amount of income. Moreover, reports show that one-third of the world’s 50,000 air routes were lost to the pandemic, and while new local routes have been introduced, the margins are much lower.
The food and entertainment industry has also seen significant drops in profit margins due to restaurant, theatre, and cinema closures; despite the increased patronage of farm-to-table suppliers, and video-on-demand services, many brick-and-mortar establishments haven’t had a single walk-in customer for a full year and have had to rely on government support, particularly in developing countries. The sports industry saw its biggest blow with the cancellation of the Summer 2020 Olympics and the restriction of spectators at matches and games.
In Nigeria, the informal economy which is vast and encompasses a host of activities ranging from agriculture, food production, transportation, and accommodation, amongst others saw a significant reduction in patronage, particularly at the onset of the pandemic.
Data from a Centre for Financial Inclusion (CFI) survey of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Lagos revealed declines in the number of operating businesses, profits, and employment – specifically, about nine per cent of businesses have closed since the pandemic started in Nigeria. The mass shutdown of businesses consequently brought down employment by 51 per cent.
Furthermore, the Nigerian Stock Market was affected as a result of the decisions of investors to pull out their investments into safe havens like US treasury bonds. By March 2021, the country’s inflation rate had hit 17 per cent from 16.47 per cent in January of the same year; national unemployment rates went up to 8.39 per cent from 8.1 per cent in 2019.
Yet, despite – and perhaps, because of – the times we found ourselves in, businesses and individuals alike were forced to identify new ways to exist and to thrive. In an article published by the Lagos Business School (LBS), they described how many tailors that jettisoned their product focus to start producing medical and non- medical PPE. This is similar to the foundation on which Project SafeUp was built.
An initiative borne of a partnership between my organisation, My World Of Bags (MWOB), and Mastercard Foundation, SafeUp began to produce and distribute personal protective equipment to hospitals, NGOs, schools, markets, and large swathes of the general public in late 2020.
With a 2.5 million item target, this initiative was designed to curb the spread of the virus by encouraging and sensitising Nigerians on the importance of non-medical solutions like PPE. Considering the dire state of our healthcare system, and as the vaccine remains mired in skepticism and in limited availability in many developing countries, the use of PPE is potentially our least costly and most sustainable long-term solution.
Looking Ahead
The global challenge of a sufficient investment in healthcare industries will need to be tackled intensively and consistently. Many countries struggled under the weight of limited infrastructure to manage the pandemic – even in developing countries. How much more in Nigeria where our primary problem is the availability of doctors?
The realisation of the importance of our healthcare sectors – albeit late – is necessary for our ability to navigate future pandemics, which according to scientists, is potentially inevitable. In Nigeria, that task is significantly more mountainous, as we struggle with access to decent healthcare for all segments of society, talk less of those at the bottom of the pyramid.
Beyond the financial investment, there is a desperate need for up-skilling. The rollout of vaccines at home is certainly a decent start. Training our primary healthcare providers effectively to administer the right education and healthcare management to their communities, alongside the vaccines will inevitably begin to solidify a foundation for basic healthcare access. Truthfully, reports show that over half our nation lives beneath the poverty line, but in truth, when it comes to healthcare, nearly 100% of us are poorly-positioned for the healthcare access we need.
Most of all, as with the onset of the virus, the risk – and the pandemic – remains for as long as the virus remains present in any single country on our planet. Thus, the question of how we proceed into the aftermath must be answered and addressed as collectively as possible.
Vaccine access goes beyond handouts – it involves empowering local manufacturers and scientists, and provides a means to create additional income sources that keep developing countries from a consistent reliance on the West for salvation.
The fact is, until a broader means of creating access is adopted, this vaccine ‘scarcity’ will remain prevalent. A prevalence of vaccines in the United States or in Germany or even Nigeria while numerous other African and Latin American countries remains seeking will not be solved by banning travel from country X or Y, because inevitably, the spread will drift into other countries, and we will be right back where we were in February 2020 – completely in the dark, without even knowing it.
…Olayebi, is the Director of Social Programs at My World of Bags/FemiHandbags.
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Globalisation has made it such that countries are much more connected than they ever were in the history of the world. Cross-border business relationships and mass migration have made it such that economic trends, as well as environmental and socio-cultural developments in one country, amongst other factors, now have ripple effects that have the potential to impact citizens in completely different hemispheres
