Why Nigerians Vote The Way They Do

Chief Gani Fawehinmi was livid and incredulous. The late human rights activist, who had gone in and out of jail countless times fighting for democracy and social justice, had just taken part in the April 19, 2003 presidential election. I went to interview him for my Saturday column in THISDAY. He could not believe President Olusegun Obasanjo was re-elected despite his “anti-poor economic policies”. He was also shocked that Nigerians did not protest the “massive rigging” by Obasanjo. He lamented to me: “It is like someone throws excreta at Nigerians and they gleefully use it as pomade to rub their faces. I have never seen anything like this in my life.” He sounded utterly disappointed, if not bitter.

In that particular election, my sympathies were with Major-Gen Muhammadu Buhari, candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). I had voted for Obasanjo in 1999 but had become disillusioned with his performance in office, especially as corruption continued unabated. I believed Buhari was better equipped to lead Nigeria. At the time, I believed Nigeria’s problem was corruption and that an honest and simple person with a good track record like Buhari was the messiah we needed to take Nigeria to the Promised Land. I continued to say he won the election and that Obasanjo rigged his way back to power. In truth, I didn’t have conclusive evidence. But it surely suited my emotions.

Fawehinmi had contested on the platform of the National Conscience Party (NCP) and garnered 161,333 votes (or 0.41 percent), placing fifth behind Obasanjo, Buhari, Dim Chukwuemeka Ojukwu and Chief Jim Nwobodo. Obasanjo was credited with 24.4 million votes, Buhari 12.7 million, Ojukwu 1.3 million and Nwobodo 169,609. Fawehinmi believed that with all he had done fighting for the Nigerian masses, he was worth more. By his own reckoning, he was detained 32 times between 1969 and 1996 by many military dictators mostly because he was using the law to challenge the decisions and actions of “oppressive” administrations — not because he killed anybody or stole anything.

Apart from his activism, which once resulted in his being arrested in Lagos and taken at night on a 1,320-kilometre road journey to Gashua Prison, now in Yobe state, Fawehinmi was also a philanthropist. He awarded scholarships to indigent students from all over the federation. When someone with such a record decided to run for president, you would think he deserved more than 161,000 votes. You would think millions of Nigerians who benefitted from his activism and philanthropy would troop to the polling units to vote for him. But admiration does not always translate into votes, and a good reputation is no substitute for a strong political organisation.

In my new book, ‘Winning Formula’, which will go on general sale on Monday, November 23, there is a chapter on voter psychology. Why do Nigerian voters behave the way they do? Conventional wisdom is that voters assess the records of candidates, read the manifestoes, and — in the case of a ruling party — check the economic conditions before they make their choices. But my reading is that most Nigerian voters make up their minds long before election day. Political loyalties, group interests and calculations of advantage often count more than policies and performance in determining electoral outcomes. Those who prioritise manifestoes and credentials appear to be in the minority.

How did I arrive at this observation? In 2003, for instance, the major issues were cost of living and insecurity. Through a phased withdrawal of subsidy, Obasanjo had increased the pump price of petrol, which many Nigerians use as the barometer to measure citizens’ welfare. Thousands of Nigerians were killed in ethno-religious crises, mainly in Kaduna, Plateau and Kano states. Armed robbery was rampant in the south. Bakassi Boys held the south-east by the jugular. Obasanjo was also accused of perpetually junketing around the world in search of foreign investors. And still, on the eve of the election, he boldly declared on TV that he would remove the remaining petrol subsidy.

Obasanjo went ahead to win re-election amid serious allegations of rigging, some of which were proved in court but were judged not substantial enough to have changed the outcome. I recall joking that Obasanjo used performance-enhancing drugs for a race he could still have won cleanly. Buhari was a hard sell in the south because of alleged bigotry. There was also the emotion that a southerner should do two terms. Buhari got 5.56 percent in the south-east, 3.44 percent in the south-west and 4.84 percent in the south-south. Obasanjo scored 69.47 percent, 88.49 percent and 91.96 percent in those zones respectively. In the north-central, Obasanjo got 60 percent while Buhari had 36 percent.

Buhari, who was finally elected president in 2015 after being part of a bigger national coalition, was re-elected in 2019 despite growing insecurity, unproved allegations of unleashing “Fulani terrorists”, inflation, economic hardship induced by a recession, prolonged medical leaves, and so on. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar made a decent challenge, but most voters were with Buhari regardless of the state of the nation. Buhari got 70 percent of the core northern votes — the states dominated by the Hausa-Fulani in the north-west and north-east. Buhari also won the south-west. Many analysts were shocked that millions of “suffering” Nigerians chose to vote for him. They misread Nigerian voters.

The 2023 election further illustrated how political alliances can outweigh raging national issues in determining the winner. Millions were fed up with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) as a result of insecurity and economic hardship. Buhari changed the colours of the naira very close to the election and made Nigerians go through hell. Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the APC candidate, also had a tough northern opponent in Atiku. I would suggest Tinubu won because of the alliances he had built and oiled in the north for decades, in addition to his home advantage in the south-west zone where he got 54 percent. His supporters did not seem to care about the debate over his school certificates.

Let us cycle back to the 2015 election, which is particularly instructive. Dr Goodluck Jonathan became the only sitting president to be defeated. However, political realignments, not economic policies, did him in. He lost to Buhari by 2.6 million votes. In the south-west alone, his tally fell by nearly one million compared with 2011, while Buhari gained more than two million votes in the zone. Had the voting pattern of 2011 been repeated in the south-west, with other results unchanged, Jonathan would have been re-elected. South-west’s political leaders strategically embraced Buhari in 2015 as part of a broader political realignment that would eventually produce the Tinubu presidency.

My observation is that most (definitely not all) Nigerian voters pick their presidential candidates out of partisan and primordial sentiments. They make their choices because of their political interests, not because of some beautiful manifestoes, colourful campaign or glittering CVs. It could also be that they are not impressed by the opposition candidates or not convinced about their capacity to deliver their promises of a better Nigeria. Elections are not just referenda on the incumbents but also on the challengers. Voters may also want to give the incumbent another chance, in spite of the economic situation. There could also be some mediating factors such as power rotation and political stability.

In ‘Winning Formula’, I use a five-part typology to explain voters’ interests: one, pecuniary incentive; two, prospect-hunting; three, principles; four, primordial bond; and five, political affinity. They are discussed in full in the chapter on voter psychology. These interests overlap and are not mutually exclusive. Electoral behaviour tends to be flexible when interests converge. A voting bloc might go against one of its own for several reasons: maybe it would be a waste of votes given the weight of the other candidates, or because of political alliances. Those who vote according to a candidate’s prospects are not often given to ethnic or religious sentiments. For them, it is about self-interest.

Meanwhile, elections are won by the strongest candidates, not necessarily the best or the smartest. It will be a bonus if the strongest candidate is also the best or the smartest. That is the ideal, but it is never guaranteed in any polity, whether developed or developing. The strength of a candidate is determined by a combination of political structure, popular appeal, strategic alliances and financial resources. In a developing democracy like Nigeria, financial resources and political networks contribute significantly to the strength of a candidate. Political identity, material interests and assessments of performance can coexist and reinforce one another, but identity often takes the lead.

Fawehinmi might have been rattled, but he had no strong primordial or partisan base. He was banking on “principled voters”, who, sadly, are in the minority. Also, we should be careful about attributing too much to “stomach infrastructure”. Most voters make up their minds before election day. For instance, Obidients (or Buharists) won’t fall for inducement because of their devotion. And while inducements may influence the undecided or get committed supporters to turn out, that alone cannot explain the deep political loyalties that shape electoral outcomes. I should say Nigerians do not necessarily vote for what analysts think is best for them. They vote for what matters to them.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

THUGGERY ALERT

On Thursday, we had a foretaste of what could happen in Lagos state during the 2027 elections. Mr Samuel Adebanjo, a multimedia journalist with TheCable, was attacked by thugs as he tried to cover the town hall meeting organised by the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) in Oregun, Lagos. He was attacked with an axe, but, thankfully, it struck his wristwatch rather than his wrist. Otherwise, it would have been a different story. The thugs seized the opportunity to steal his professional camera, gimbal and microphone, worth millions of naira. Since the incident, I have been wondering how the actual voting will go next year under this atmosphere of intimidation and violence. Terrifying.

MUZZLING MEDIA

A federal high court sitting in Abuja on Tuesday remanded Mr Daniel Ojukwu, a correspondent with the Foundation for Investigative Journalism (FIJ), in prison over reports about Mrs Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire, a senior special assistant to the president. This came after Ojukwu pleaded not guilty to alleged cyberstalking and criminal defamation. I will never understand why a journalist should face criminal defamation charges over public-interest reporting when the civil courts provide avenues for redress. We need to rally ourselves to see to the amendment of these laws, which are capable of circumscribing the constitutional duty of the media to hold those in power accountable. Draconian.

FLAMING FLAMINGOS

Congratulations to the Flamingos, the U-17 women’s football team, for winning the World Cup — the first global honour won by any Nigerian women’s football team in history. I must confess that I was a latecomer to the party. I only started following their progress from the knockout stages. It reminds me of when Nigeria won the U-16 World Tournament in 1985 — they had gone far before I even knew what was happening. Just as the feat of the Baby Eagles marked the beginning of a new era for our football in 1985, I hope that the feat of the Flamingos will mean something for the fortunes of our women’s football. The vibes have been quite negative and uninspiring in recent times. Change.

NO COMMENT

Jensen Huang had to resign as CEO of Nvidia on Thursday following reports of extramarital affairs with an alleged Chinese spy and two subordinates. Nvidia, co-founded in 1993 by Huang, Chris Malachowsky and Curtis Priem, lost significant market value as a result of the scandal. There will also be diplomatic repercussions because of the involvement of a suspected spy. By the way, Nvidia is one of the world’s largest companies by market capitalisation. In all of this though, it is an X post by a user that enthrals me the most. It says: “I’m too busy for a relationship is no longer a valid excuse. Jensen Huang found the time for THREE and he ran a multi-billion dollar company.” Hahahaha…