NESG: Export Sub-index Contracts to 95.1, Lowest in 13 Months

Dike Onwuamaeze

The export sub-index of the Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) Business Confidence Monitor (BCM), fell into contraction territory in October 2026, while the financial results index moved into expansion territory.

According to the NESG BCM report, readings above 100 is expansion while readings lower that 100 signifies contraction. However, cost of doing business and prices (producer prices) have an inverse interpretation, meaning that an index rising towards or above 100 indicates easing pressure, while a decline towards or below 100 signals rising pressure.

The export sub-index fell from 103 in September to 95.1 in October 2026, which is its least performance since October 2025 when the sub-index stood at 105.5.

But the financial result’s index rose from contraction at 99.1 in September to 132.1 in October 2026.

The BCM also reported that the cost of doing business and prices sub-indices reported elevated costs and producer prices at readings below the neutral 100-point threshold at 45.2 and 65.5 points, respectively.

The report stated that both readings rose relative to the previous month’s levels, implying that cost and price pressures eased but remained elevated in October 2026.

It said that despite sustained business growth, most firms grappled with key constraints, especially irregular electricity supply, credit squeeze, insecurity, high rental costs, and inadequate infrastructure.

These challenges may have partly contributed to elevated cost pressures during the month.

However, the BCM’s current business performance index “CBPI) showed that Nigeria’s business activity sustained its expansion in October 2026.

The CBPI moderated to 115.4 points from 117.8 points in September 2026, but rose from 111.3 points in October 2025.

Although all sectors remained in expansion territory in October 2026, only trade and services performed better than in the previous month.  

The report also said that future business expectations index stood at 130.8 points, up from 128.9 in September 2026, which reflected improved optimism about short-term business conditions.

It said: “Trade registered the strongest optimism level at 194.0 points, followed by manufacturing (145.1 points) and non-manufacturing (135.0 points). Conversely, services and agriculture recorded relatively weaker optimism. The overall positive outlook reflects strong consumer demand during the year-end festivities and ongoing campaign activities.”

According to the BCM, business activity in the agriculture sector continued to expand in October 2026, as its CBPI recorded113.8 points, which represented a slowdown from 117.7 points in September 2026 but is above 111.4 points a year earlier.  This reflected subdued performance across most agro subsectors.

According to the report, out of the three subsectors that remained in expansion territory in October 2026, only livestock performed better than in the previous month, whereas business activity slowed slightly in crop production and significantly in agro-allied.

It said, “Conversely, fishing remained in contraction territory, while forestry held steady around the neutral 100-point mark.”

In the same vein, business activity in the manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory in October 2026, as the sector’s CBPI stood at 107.3 points, down from 108.4 and 111.3 points in September 2026 and October 2025, respectively.  Meanwhile, performance was uneven across manufacturing’s subsectors.

“Of the three largest subsectors, only Food, Beverage & Tobacco remained in expansion territory and performed better than in the previous month.  The remaining two subsectors (Textile, Apparel & Footwear and cement) either moved into or remained in contraction territory in October 2026. Notably, Chemical & Pharmaceutical Products, Plastic & Rubber Products, and Wood & Wood Products entered the expansion territory.

“Meanwhile, Pulp, Paper and Paper Products and Non-Metallic Products moved into and remained in contraction territory, respectively, while the remaining subsectors held steady around the 100-point neutral threshold,” the BCM said.