Kyari Faults Political Interpretation of Cadre Harmonisé Assessment

• FAO-backed report projects 6.7m increase in people facing acute food insecurity by 2027 lean season

•Minister cites climate shocks, insecurity, expands irrigation, mechanisation and farm input support

James Emejo in Abuja

Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, yesterday faulted the politicisation of the latest Cadre Harmonisé food security assessment.

Kyari insisted that the report’s projection of 33.5 million Nigerians facing acute food insecurity in 2027 should be treated as an early-warning signal rather than an indictment of the federal government.

The minister, who acknowledged the country’s persistent food and nutrition challenges, said the technical assessment was being misrepresented by opposition voices for political purposes, warning against turning the food security situation into an electoral campaign issue.

His position comes as the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)-backed assessment projects that the number of Nigerians facing crisis-level food insecurity or worse could rise by 6.7 million, from 26.8 million between October and December 2026 to 33.5 million during the June-August 2027 lean season.

The projected increase highlights the mounting pressure on vulnerable households, particularly as declining food stocks, elevated food prices, reduced purchasing power, and disruptions to agricultural livelihoods, threaten access to food.

However, in a statement, the minister said the 33.5 million projection was lower than the 34.8 million projected for the corresponding period in 2026, maintaining that the figures have been selectively interpreted to advance political narratives.

He explained that the Cadre Harmonisé was developed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), with technical support from international organisations, including FAO, World Food Programme (WFP), FEWS NET, and UNICEF.

According to him, the framework provides an evidence-based mechanism for identifying populations vulnerable to food and nutrition insecurity and enabling governments and development partners to respond before conditions deteriorate.

Kyari stressed that the assessment did not attribute the projected food insecurity to the continuation of any particular political administration, describing such interpretations as a distortion of its findings.

However, the assessment points to significant vulnerabilities across the country, identifying conflict and insecurity, population displacement, high fuel prices, climate-related shocks, and persistent food inflation as major drivers of food insecurity.

It covered 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), with findings indicating that vulnerable communities would remain exposed to severe food consumption challenges.

The report projected that 756,815 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Borno, Sokoto and Zamfara states would face crisis-level food insecurity or worse between October and December 2026.

The number is expected to increase to 891,228 during the June-August 2027 period.

Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto were among the states identified as facing some of the most severe food consumption challenges.

The assessment further highlighted the impact of insecurity and displacement on agricultural livelihoods, with farmers in affected communities facing restricted access to farmland and productive assets.

Rising fuel, transportation, energy and fertiliser costs were also identified as factors increasing production expenses and weakening household purchasing power.

The nutrition outlook was equally concerning, with the report warning that inadequate dietary intake, disease outbreaks, reduced household incomes, and limited access to healthcare, clean water, and sanitation could worsen acute malnutrition, particularly among children under five and pregnant and breastfeeding women.

It recommended timely food assistance, targeted cash transfers, and livelihood support, alongside stronger nutrition surveillance and improved prevention and treatment of acute malnutrition.

Responding to the challenges, Kyari identified climate change, inconsistent rainfall, and prolonged dry spells as major constraints to agricultural production, particularly for farmers dependent on rain-fed agriculture.

He also cited the Super El Niño phenomenon as contributing to weather disruptions across several regions, affecting planting seasons and crop yields.

On interventions, the minister said the federal government was expanding fertiliser distribution and local blending, mechanisation, irrigation, and dry-season farming to boost domestic food production.

He listed improved agricultural financing, access to farmland, storage and processing infrastructure, value-chain development and climate-resilient agricultural practices among measures being pursued to strengthen the country’s food system.

Kyari also attributed some improvement in agricultural activities to better security in previously inaccessible farming communities, stating that farmers are gradually returning to their farmlands.

He specifically cited Marte and Guzamala in Borno State, where improved stability had enabled data collectors to conduct the Cadre Harmonisé assessment in areas previously inaccessible to them.

The minister highlighted support for smallholder farmers, mechanisation partnerships, and financing through the Bank of Agriculture (BoA) as part of efforts to improve productivity.

He admitted that the interventions would not eliminate food insecurity overnight, describing it as a longstanding structural challenge that predated the current administration.

Kyari said the government welcomed scrutiny and constructive criticism, but he urged political actors to exercise responsibility in interpreting food security statistics.

He maintained that the priority should be translating the assessment’s early-warning signals into practical interventions to protect livelihoods, support farmers, and improve access to affordable and nutritious food.

Meanwhile, Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Dr. Marcus Ogunbiyi, disclosed during the presentation of the assessment that 10 states were yet to be fully integrated into the Cadre Harmonisé analysis process.

Ogunbiyi called on development and humanitarian partners to support data collection, capacity-building, and analytical capabilities to strengthen national coverage and improve the targeting of interventions.

Similarly, FAO Representative in Nigeria and ECOWAS, Dr. Hussein Gadain, represented by a senior programme officer, Jimmy Owani, urged government institutions, development partners, and the private sector to deploy the findings in anticipating emerging food security pressures and protecting vulnerable livelihoods.