Condition make crayfish bend

Many of the [on the one hand] spectacular and [on the other hand] curious events and statements that dominated the national political scene last week recall the old saying of hard-pressed city proletarians, that “na condition make crayfish bend.”

Beginning with the late start of this year’s election campaign. With about 90 days to the start of 2027 general and presidential elections, it was a curiosity that campaigns by political parties, both ruling and opposition, were hardly in full swing. By this time in previous elections, every inch on walls and buildings were splashed with posters; huge campaign billboards welcomed you into every town; vehicles blaring with campaign music were positioned in all markets and street corners; radio and TV stations engaged in endless political programs while campaign rallies, the most conspicuous element of Nigerian campaigns, were holding in every town, with motorists and motorcyclists charging through city streets and often knocking down by-standers.

Probably the most hectic national campaign we ever had was in 1978-79, which lasted from November 1978, when the five registered parties nominated their candidates, until July-August 1979, when five rounds of elections were held. The late Dr. Rufai Ibrahim wrote in Daily Times that he went on a national political reporting tour and ran into GNPP candidate Waziri Ibrahim nearly 20 times. NPN candidate Alhaji Shehu Shagari visited not only state capitals but every major town in every one of the then 19 states and, according to Ibrahim, he was always lodged in the best house in a town, belonging to an NPN chieftain. UPN’s Chief Awolowo also made a big splash by hopping around the country in a helicopter, which always attracted great curiosity. This year, campaigns are starting quite late.

Better late than never, is another common Nigerian saying. On Wednesday last week, October 15, the ruling APC inaugurated its Presidential Campaign Council [PCC] at a major ceremony in Abuja. Major, because the entire Federal cabinet, National Assembly leaders and most of its members, 33 serving state governors [out of 36] and numerous former governors and ministers, as well as the Vice President and the President, were all present.

Yet, the biggest curiosity to come out of the occasion was the revelation, earlier speculated by a newspaper, then confirmed by the campaign’s director general and finally endorsed by the President, was that President Bola Tinubu will not visit all the states during this campaign. Indeed, the schedule of rallies later released by the campaign team said he will personally campaign in 12 states [one third of the total] beginning in Kaduna on October 25 and rounding up in Lagos on January 9.

The large number of today’s states must be a factor. In the Second Republic, Shagari had only 19 states to visit. In the Third Republic, MKO Abiola and Bashir Tofa had 30 states to visit, but since 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’adua, Goodluck Jonathan, Muhammadu Buhari and Tinubu too in 2023 have had to personally campaign in 36 states. A presidential campaign rally in a state is politically important because it energises party supporters, attracts the greatest media attention and elicits the greatest youth excitement. But beyond the podium speeches, it also enables private meetings with party leaders and personal promises. On the flip side, it affords candidates more opportunity for gaffes.

The President said at the event that he will refrain from touring the whole country so that he will concentrate on governance issues. I can imagine the sweat on the brows of top presidential aides and communicators as they worked out how to present this bombshell announcement. In a liberal democracy, governance and campaigning are not mutually exclusive. This spin further raised eyebrows at a time when television pictures show US President Donald Trump vigorously campaigning across his country for the midterm elections, even though he himself is not on the ballot. President Tinubu said he will leave governors and other APC leaders to take the campaign to the LGAs and wards. One mischievous young lad asked if it means governors will abandon governance while they campaign.

A curious presence at the APC council inauguration were three men: Governors Charles Soludo of Anambra and Ademola Adeleke of Osun, and FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, an alleged member of the opposition PDP. Adeleke entertained the event with his sartorial dance steps. The three men were later additions to the campaign council, a first in Nigerian politics, when prominent members of opposition parties openly campaigned for the ruling party’s candidate. Adeleke’s Accord Party even has a presidential candidate, Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, even though the party disowned him. This was reminiscent of 2003, when Alliance for Democracy [AD] refused to field a presidential candidate and instead supported PDP’s candidate, President Obasanjo. Curiously, then Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu was the only AD governor who disagreed with his colleagues’ dangerous gambit. Accord and APGA may be towing AD’s path to ruination today.

Only three serving governors remained outside the APC umbrella. One of them is Oyo State governor Seyi Makinde, who is APM’s presidential candidate. Another is Bauchi’s Bala Mohammed, who is an APM senatorial candidate. Third one is Abia State governor Alex Otti, who remarkably remained in LP despite the defection of its former presidential candidate and top rallying point Peter Obi, now NDC’s presidential candidate. Otti apparently believes he can win reelection on the strength of his own record and on the apparent unpopularity of APC in the Southeast region.

Three days after the APC council launch, there was another grand ceremony in Abuja to launch Arewa for Asiwaju, A4A. It was an impressive array of Administration officials and lots of former governors and ministers of Northern extraction. Although it was not expressly stated, the launch of this group, led by former Kano State governor Ibrahim Shekarau, is a response to the slipping popularity of the Administration in the North, mostly occasioned by insecurity, the difficult socio-economic conditions, as well as perceptions of regionally lopsided projects and appointments.

Vice President Kashim Shettima’s statement at the launch, that “the North has nothing to fear” from a Tinubu second term was, without saying so, an apparent response to what other regional groups were saying, that “if he did this to us in his first term, what will he do to us in his second term?” While APC national chairman Nentawe Yilwatda said the North will award the APC ticket 70% of its votes [how did he arrive at that figure?], Shettima rather carefully said the North will support the ticket but that the support is not unconditional, but will be earned through “facts, radical transparency, measurable results and honest engagement with citizens about ongoing reforms.”

The ruling party having opened the way, major opposition parties ADC and NDC are set to launch their own campaign councils and kick off their rallies soon. Even as they gear up for that, there was still talk in the air of their presenting a single candidate to confront the APC behemoth. A committee led by former APC Northwest zonal chairman Salihu Lukman has been working on this through the G100 group. It is however difficult to see if this could be still be done given the short time remaining. There is also the problem of the apparent non-transferability of the major candidate’s political bases. In the 2023 elections, Peter Obi generated his most support in the Southeast, Lagos, Plateau and Nasarawa; Atiku Abubakar swept the Northeast and majority of Northwest states as well as Osun, while then NNPP candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso swept Kano. Given the regional slant of their support bases, it is not at all clear that if one of the major opposition candidates were to step down, he could transfer his base of support to the other.

Right now, NDC presidential running mate Kwankwaso has a big problem on his hands in the disqualification of Kano NDC’s governorship candidate Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo. His name was excluded from INEC’s final list of candidates, alongside others, on the grounds that his name was not on the membership register that NDC submitted to INEC in May, as per the recent Supreme Court ruling.  If this stance stands, Kwankwaso’s bid to dislodge his former protégé Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf has developed a big K-leg. The old warhorse that he is however, he might yet throw his weight behind one of the small parties’ candidates.

APM’s presidential candidate Seyi Makinde caused further bending of the crayfish by nominating former DSS director general Lawal Daura as his running mate. Daura has been lying low since 2017, when then Acting President Yemi Osinbajo sacked him because he sent DSS agents to storm the National Assembly. President Buhari did not restore him when he returned from his sick leave, but Daura is now hankering after Osinbajo’s old seat.

Late last week, Senate President Godswill Akpabio bent the crayfish until its back almost snapped when he got the Senate to adopt a resolution saying the Senate to be inaugurated in June next year, after the elections, must retain him and other leaders of the current Assembly in their seats. Constitutional, administrative, legal, procedural, parliamentary, political and ethical eyebrows were all raised following the announcement.  

Not to be outdone, Works Minister Dave Umahi announced last week that President Tinubu had done a “wondering engineering decision” by approving the bending of the Lags-Calabar coastal highway road project to enter the existing East-West road. In other words, the coastal road bent like a crayfish until its carapace, chelipod, telson and antennae snapped, eliciting loud protests from Bayelsa State government officials. They said their state’s marshy terrain is not unconquerable by road engineers because Governor Duoye Diri built one road with up to 20 bridges on it. Talk about condition making crayfish to bend.