Understanding Nigeria’s Seven Voting Blocs

Before the first ballot is cast in Nigeria’s presidential elections, some things are already in plain sight — but voters and commentators often miss them because of the emotions of the moment. In my previous article, ‘The Winning Formula for Presidential Elections’, I pointed out that Nigeria is built on a tripod — the Hausa/Fulani, the Igbo and the Yoruba — and that a successful candidate is the one who performs well in two out of these three blocs. These blocs dominate four of the six geo-political zones and control nearly two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation. They harbour massive votes. All winners of presidential elections since 1999 did well in at least two of these three blocs.

I contended further that in addition to getting “two out of three”, the successful candidate must also win at least one of the minority geo-political zones: either the north-central or the south-south. Winning both would be better. But with the tripod now fielding formidable candidates, the minorities might soon determine the outcome by becoming the ultimate tie-breakers. There is an increasing chance that a presidential election may sooner or later go into a run-off for the first time if the three major candidates fail to do well in “two out of three”. Since a run-off would be unprecedented, the outcome would be hard to predict. But, at this rate, it seems we are getting closer to a photo finish.

These are some of my bold assertions in my forthcoming book, ‘Anatomy of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election’, scheduled for release in the last week of October 2026. The book examines the evolving electoral arithmetic, reconstructs the political intrigues surrounding the 2023 contest and explains how coalitions, regional loyalties and strategic choices shape the race for Nigeria’s presidency. It provides behind-the-scenes accounts of the intrigues and cold calculations within the major political parties before the election. In my article today, I want to focus on the major voting blocs in Nigeria and how they shape presidential elections — as discussed in the upcoming book.

In our heterogeneous and complex ethno-religious and regional politics, the major voting blocs are visible from the patterns of election results from the pre-Independence era. The most prominent blocs, in no particular order, are: (1) the core north, also called the “Muslim north” or the “north” (2) the Igbo (3) the Yoruba (4) the Christian north (5) the southern minorities (6) the youth (7) the church establishment. Each of these voting blocs is driven by different sentiments and values. While no section gives the entirety of its support to one candidate, there is the possibility of a contestant securing a majority or supermajority of the votes in a bloc largely for primordial or partisan reasons.

Political affinities and primordial sentiments are clearly pronounced across the blocs and they drive voting decisions. Most of these blocs took shape long ago, but they have also evolved over time alongside landmark national developments — such as the Civil War, the June 12 annulment, the restiveness in the oil-rich region, and separatist agitations — which have either concretised existing alliances or induced re-alignments. Politicians who understand the game choose the blocs to woo and work with during elections, hoping that their advances will be reciprocated. Those who play it masterfully will end up carrying the day. Those who are naïve base their hopes on wishful thinking.

The core north, the Igbo, the Yoruba and the southern minorities can be easily defined. But the remaining three — the youth, the Christian north and the church establishment — do overlap and some further explanation is essential. The operating principle of the youth — working as or closely with civic groups — is based on promoting what they think is “best” for Nigeria. They want socio-economic advancement. They want Nigeria to develop like other nations, such as Canada and the UK. Youths have always been active in Nigerian politics. Along the way, they fell off as a demographic of political relevance. But they have since found their voice, facilitated by the social media revolution.

But while youth movements generally claim to be free of primordial interests, their regional and religious biases are often traceable. The sentiments of youths in the north and those in the south could be divergent, shaped largely by primordial and partisan considerations — and this was evident in the 2023 presidential election. For instance, there were millions of pro-Peter Obi youths in the south, but their northern counterparts were less enamoured with his candidacy. That means, essentially, that a large number of the youth can still be classified under ethnic and religious groups. This should not be confused with politically aligned youths who make no claims to neutrality.

The church establishment, another voting bloc, is well established. It is a counterforce to the political influence of Islam in Nigeria. Some clarity is also urgently needed here. There is the northern Christian bloc which is not the same as the church establishment, even if they are strong allies and are sometimes hard to differentiate from each other. Northern Christians traditionally come together to play identity politics in the midst of northern Muslims. They demand equitable treatment in employment, appointments and the creation of political units such as traditional institutions, local governments, legislative constituencies and states. They don’t want to be treated as outsiders.

On the other hand, the church establishment is nationwide. It sees itself as a counterforce to political Islam. It operates to counter what it regards as an active agenda to Islamise Nigeria. At election times, it seeks to mobilise Christians nationwide to “resist Islamisation”. The bloc has been in the game from the mid-1980s, noticeably around the dispute over Nigeria’s membership of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) in 1986, but the introduction of the criminal jurisdiction of Sharia law in twelve northern Nigerian states in the early 2000s and the resultant religious unrest, worsened by terrorism and banditry, have combined to invigorate the Christian counterforce.

There are large numbers of Christians among the other voting blocs such as the Igbo and the Yoruba, but the distinguishing feature of the church establishment is that it operates deeply from the position of religion. Whereas Yoruba or Igbo Christians can vote for Muslim candidates based on certain justifications, the church establishment is mainly interested in promoting Christian — not partisan or ethnic — interests. It is religion, first and foremost. A subset of this church bloc has Pentecostal leaders and influencers who want a strong Christian presence in politics. They want churchgoers to take part in politics rather than leave the turf entirely to the regular politicians.

I contend in my book that the consistency of the “two out of three” rule means that the youth, the Christian north, the minorities and the church establishment are not as strong as the tripod blocs. Why? The Christian north and the church backed President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in 2019, and Obi in 2023. They all lost. The southern minorities backed Jonathan in 2015, Atiku in 2019 and Obi in 2023. They all lost. Just one thing was missing: the “two out of three” formula. Food for thought: no candidate has ever lost the presidential election after performing well in “two out of three”. For sure, things can change in 2027, but this is the situation report. Instructive.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

BLOCKING OBI

The convoy of Mr Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), was blocked on the Makurdi-Gboko federal highway on Tuesday by those described as “angry youths”. He was on his way to Yelewata, where he was to commiserate with the victims of the June 2025 attacks in which 270 were killed. Why were the youths angry? We have not been told. It is good to hear police have arrested suspects. Someone asked why it has taken Obi a year to visit the victims if not that he is playing politics. However, whether or not Obi is playing games, we need to be reminded in this campaign season that nobody has a right to impede another’s freedom of movement. Troubling.

PAYING THE PRICE

The Nigeria Police Force National Cybercrime Centre (NPF-NCCC) has arrested Ms Hafsat Abubakar, an X user, over a post in which she asked customers to withdraw their funds from OPay because the digital financial services platform was about to shut down. Her claim was false, but many panic-stricken customers might have taken her advice. While we await the outcome of the legal process, I wonder why some people do not seem to care about the consequences of their actions. Social media has become a lawless space where people can post anything and get away with it. When security agencies act, we treat it as a crackdown on free speech. Something has to change. Imperative.

RIP MANDIYA

I was in absolute shock on Monday when I heard the news of the passing of Senator Bello Mandiya. He was 62. Our paths crossed at the mass communication department of the University of Lagos in 1989. Although I was a year ahead of him academically, he was much older than I was. Despite the age difference, he was very friendly. We re-connected much later, I think in 2004, when I went to interview Rt Hon Aminu Masari, then speaker of the house of reps. When Masari became governor of Katsina in 2015, he appointed Mandiya as his chief of staff. Mandiya was then elected senator for the Katsina south in 2019, a position he held till 2023. I pray that God will comfort his family. Adieu.

NO COMMENT…

Whatever you are going through, remember the case of Mr Robert Orya, former MD of the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM). In November 2021, the EFCC arraigned him before a federal high court in Abuja on a 49-count charge relating to a N2.4 billion fraud. In February this year, he was sentenced to 490 years in prison. Yes, 490 years. That amounts to 10 years on each count. He went on to appeal the judgment but the court of appeal has now upheld it. If it were you, would you head for the supreme court? What are the chances of it being upturned? The only bright side is that he will serve the sentences concurrently, otherwise where will he get the long life to serve 490 years? Hahahaha…