Zero Tariffs Are an Opening, Not a Strategy

By YE Weifeng and XIA Ranruo

A tariff concession is not often the sort of thing that gets people talking outside government offices. It should, in this case. Since 1 May, Nigeria has had duty-free access across Chinese tariff lines, alongside 52 other African countries. The arrangement gives Nigerian exporters a two-year window while longer-term economic partnership talks continue.
From the perspective of a Chinese researcher, this is not simply a trade concession. It is an opportunity to test whether China-Nigeria cooperation can move beyond easier market entry to stronger productive links. China can offer a large consumer market, equipment, capital and technical experience. But the lasting gains must be visible in Nigeria: stronger firms, more skilled work and a greater share of value retained locally.

The early figures are encouraging but need careful interpretation. At an Abuja seminar in August, China’s Ambassador to Nigeria, Yu Dunhai, said bilateral trade reached $18 billion in the first half of 2026, up 35 per cent year on year, while Chinese imports from Nigeria rose 80 per cent to $2.3 billion. Since those totals include January to April, before the policy began, they are a sign of momentum rather than proof that zero tariffs alone caused the increase.
The new inspection and quarantine protocol for Nigerian wild aquatic products, and reported tariff savings on sesame, cattle-bone granules and liquefied propane, point to practical potential. But Chinese buyers need more than competitive prices: they expect consistent quality, dependable volumes, traceability and regulatory compliance. Nigerian firms must convert market access into repeat orders and long-term relationships.
The larger opportunity is value addition. Nigeria can expand aggregation, testing, storage, processing, packaging and branding in product chains such as sesame, cocoa products, cashew, aquatic products, fertiliser and petrochemical derivatives. Clear guidance on origin documentation, inspection, Chinese labelling and logistics would help smaller exporters use the preference.
The Chinese market should be approached with realism. Its size is attractive, but it is also competitive and demanding. Nigerian exporters will need reliable supply chains and a better understanding of consumer and importer requirements. Closer contact between Nigerian producers, Chinese buyers, sector regulators and logistics providers can reduce avoidable failures and help businesses move from trial consignments to commercially sustainable trade.
China can contribute through investment, equipment and practical know-how. The strongest partnerships will be those that source Nigerian inputs where feasible, train workers and develop local suppliers. Nigeria must also tackle costs that tariffs cannot remove: port congestion, unreliable power, expensive transport and limited trade finance.
Success should be measured by more than a headline trade figure. It should include the share of processed goods, the number of Nigerian firms able to export, the jobs created and the value retained locally. These indicators would show whether the tariff arrangement is deepening productive capacity or simply making commodity exports marginally cheaper.
Public reporting on exports, processed-goods share, participating firms, jobs, local sourcing and destination-market rejections would show whether the policy is diversifying Nigeria’s economy. China and Nigeria are marking 55 years of diplomatic relations this year. Zero tariffs have opened a door; the lasting test is whether Nigeria takes through it more raw materials, or more goods carrying Nigerian skill, value and employment. From a Chinese perspective, the latter is the firmer foundation for a durable partnership.

*YE Weifeng and XIA Ranruo are researchers at the Institute of African Studies, Zhejiang Normal University, China