Is Nigeria Engaging the Sustainability Blind Spots of AI?

SOStainabilityWeekly

Edited by Oke Epia, E-mail: sostainability01@gmail.com  | WhatsApp: +234 8034000706

Trends and Threads

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become the most influential innovation in the world today. It is rapidly reshaping discussions on the economy, markets, and global geopolitics. It is transforming how students undertake research and academic assignments, how content is created and shared on social media, how music and movies are made and streamed, and how blogs and articles are written and copyrighted, etc. It is hailed as the ultimate enabler of efficiency: augmenting (and threatening to replace) human intelligence. AI is automating tasks to achieve outstanding results at a speed never seen before. It is now increasingly deployed in medical practice. As you read this, AI models are being trained in virtually all spheres of human endeavours, sparking both excitement and fears in industry and society generally.  The reality is that AI is a double-edged sword – with advantages and disadvantages that must be carefully considered in applying the technology. This is where governments get involved.  

However, AI is advancing at such a rapid pace that policy and regulation are struggling to play catch-up globally. It is an unstoppable floodgate that overwhelms hurriedly cobbled guardrails that are either not formidable enough or simply collapsing at the sheer force of the onslaught. This gets worse as tech giants compete to outdo each other for a decent slice of the market pie. This is why it is critical to engage the AI opportunity from a robust perspective. This matters more for developing countries and emerging markets, especially where state institutions and regulatory bodies are not formidable enough to protect the weak and vulnerable. The tendency is for these countries to jump on the trend in a bid to secure the advantages without a deep dive beyond the façade of attracting investments, creating jobs, and stimulating economic growth.   

Nigeria must avoid this mistake. It must comprehensively consider the opportunity costs of the AI boom. For SOStainability and this page in particular, the area of focus would be the climate and sustainability implications of the technology. AI comes with considerable externalities, including rapid resource consumption and depletion, environmental risks, and social dysfunctionalities that must be accounted for to ascertain the true value of the innovation. Water, land, and energy are critical resources for the survival of humans and the planet. These are also the most critical requirements that power data centres that drive the foundational and operational infrastructure of artificial intelligence. It should not have been a problem if the scale of consumption and usage were not massive enough to disrupt extant supply chains for humans, communities, and other organic species that make the world go round. The stats from recent research speak for themselves: AI models consume up to 6 million m³ of clean water per year, equivalent to the annual water consumption of roughly 600,000 people; AI’s environmental footprint is continuing to grow, with data centres projected to account for four per cent of global electricity demand by 2030; One AI search uses ten times the electricity that a Google search would. If these random facts from several separate sources leave any room for doubt as to the adverse consequences of AI, a recent report from the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health, titled, ‘Environmental Costs of AI’s Energy Use,’ should bring the point home rather pungently. Co-authored by four distinguished researchers and academics, the report reveals some startling facts. It also makes unsettling projections that should stimulate deep reflection on urgent and necessary AI governance and regulation to safeguard future life on the planet. Using a 2030 scenario simulation, the research projects that AI will use the amount of water for 1.3 billion people, and three times more of the energy requirement of 650 million people. A summary from the university’s website puts it this way: “By 2030, the global data centres powering artificial intelligence are projected to consume 945 terawatt-hours of electricity. This is nearly triple the combined annual electricity use of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria—countries collectively home to more than 650 million people. Their associated water footprint will equal the basic annual domestic water needs of all 1.3 billion people in Sub-Saharan Africa, and their land footprint will exceed 14,500 square kilometres, roughly twice the Jakarta metropolitan area, home to more than 32 million people.”

Reference to this research and the stats shared earlier is not meant to downplay the positive value of AI. In fact, it has become quite instrumental in advancing climate science and the technologies for mitigation, adaptation and resilience. For example, Artificial intelligence is being used to track methane emissions via satellites, improving climate monitoring, according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). The point being made is that the technology must be engaged with a firm mindset of sustainability – ensuring that the next generation enjoys the benefits while assuring resource availability and environmental stability to meet the unique needs of their time. For Nigeria, this requires collaboration across ministries, departments and agencies of government. It must be an integral part of a national and holistic development planning that recognises the central role of decarbonisation, environmental conservation, and resource preservation.