Ogun 2027: The Political Payoff of the Royal Blessing for Yayi, Abiodun

Femi Ogbonnikan

Ogun State Governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, penultimate Friday achieved a significant political breakthrough in his succession plan as he secured the endorsement of the Ijebu Council of Traditional Rulers for Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as the consensus governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

As repositories of Yoruba culture, historical wisdom, and community values, traditional rulers in Southwestern Nigeria have historically commanded immense respect, playing a pivotal role in shaping public opinion on governance and socio-political matters. By securing the blessings of these revered Obas for his choice of successor and successfully persuading them of the strategic need for power to shift to Ogun West, Governor Abiodun has moved beyond mere partisan politics.

Speaking immediately after the high-stakes meeting with the royal fathers in the historic city of Ijebu Ode, the governor framed the monumental decision not as a unilateral political manoeuvre but as a profound matter of justice. ​“What we are doing today is not about politics. It is about fairness, justice and equity. Ogun West has waited long enough. For the sake of unity and true belonging, power must shift to our brothers in the West,” Abiodun said.

In a way, he has skillfully shifted the conversation on the consensus arrangement that produced Senator Adeola from standard APC internal power dynamics to a broader, statewide acceptance of those same core principles.

As he rightly argued, zoning power to Ogun West is the only viable way to give every section of the state a true, undeniable sense of belonging.
​The argument resonates deeply across the state because Ogun West remains the only senatorial district yet to produce a governor since the creation of Ogun State in 1976.

While Ogun Central and Ogun East have enjoyed multiple turns at the governorship, stakeholders and residents in the West have long complained of political marginalisation, despite their immense contributions to the state’s economy through agriculture, industrial hubs, and vital border trade.

Framing the succession debate around equity, therefore, allows the governor to present Adeola’s candidacy not as an arbitrary imposition, but as a necessary correction of an enduring historical imbalance.
With the backing of the Ijebu Council of Traditional Rulers, a key and highly influential constituency in Ogun East, Abiodun appears to have successfully neutralised potential resistance from other zones before the campaign even begins in earnest.

​The endorsement signals that the push for an Ogun West governorship is being sold far beyond party lines as a moral obligation for the entire state, rather than a narrow, sectional agenda.
“Beyond the narrow politics of the past, a vote for the APC is a vote for continuity and a validation of the ‘Building Our Future Together’ mantra of this administration,” the governor added, reinforcing the idea that his chosen successor represents a bridge between historical justice and future prosperity.

​Beneath the elevated rhetoric of equity, fairness, and inclusion lies a clear, highly calculated political strategy.

The alliance between Abiodun and Adeola is mutually beneficial, and that is precisely why it has gathered immense momentum so quickly. For Abiodun, who will complete his second term on May 29, 2027,

Adeola represents the safest pair of hands to protect and advance his administrative legacy.
A governor from Ogun West possessing deep federal connections, substantial financial clout, and immense name recognition will be far more inclined to consolidate, rather than dismantle, the large-scale infrastructure and policy projects of the current administration.
Major investments like the multi-billion naira roads, the landmark gateway agro-cargo airport, and various special industrial hubs initiated under the “Building Our Future Together” banner are far more likely to be sustained by a successor who owes a significant part of his political emergence to the incumbent.

​More importantly, by successfully midwifing an Ogun West governor, Abiodun strategically frees himself to pursue his own long-term senatorial ambition without being weighed down by accusations of regional greed.

The Ogun East Senatorial seat will become vacant in 2027. With the governorship effectively zoned to the West, the complex political calculations in the East will naturally shift. The governor can now credibly argue to his home constituency that he has done justice to the West, and in return, the East should rally behind him to represent them at the Red Chamber in Abuja.

The early endorsement from the Ijebu Obas is crucial here; it functions as both a reward for his inclusive governance and a political down-payment. The Obas are signalling that if the West gets the governorship, the East can still retain a massive amount of statewide and federal influence through Abiodun’s presence in the Senate.

​For Adeola, the benefits of this alliance are just as direct and transformative. As a high-profile, a single term senator currently representing Ogun West, and having previously served as the influential chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations, he possesses unparalleled legislative experience and federal reach.

However, despite his national stature, he lacks the deeply entrenched, statewide grassroots party structure that only a sitting governor can seamlessly provide.
Abiodun’s formidable political machinery, dedicated appointees, and accumulated goodwill across the 20 local governments give Adeola a powerful launching pad that he simply could not build independently within a single election cycle.

Senator Adeola, while expressing his profound gratitude to the gathered Obas, presented himself as a humble servant ready for the immense task ahead. “I am humbled by this royal endorsement. This is not about me. This is about history. For the first time, Ogun West will have the opportunity to lead, and I will ensure that every part of Ogun State feels the impact of government,” Adeola declared.

​The governor’s ability to secure the public backing of these traditional rulers also serves a vital defensive purpose: it helps Adeola transcend the pesky Lagos import tag that his political opponents have repeatedly tried to weaponise against him.
Because Adeola built a significant portion of his early political career in Lagos State before transferring his voter registration card and political base back to Ogun State, critics have frequently labeled him an outsider.

By presenting Adeola as the consensus choice formally ratified by the state’s most revered Obas, the campaign successfully reframes him as an accomplished son of the soil who is returning home to complete a historic assignment, rather than an external political interloper.
​In essence, this grand alliance functions as a sophisticated political trade: Abiodun delivers the coveted governorship to the West and retains long-term influence through a friendly, protective successor; Adeola secures the governorship and, in return, clears the path for Abiodun’s transition to the Senate while shielding the current administration’s landmark projects from future cancellation.

In Ogun politics, no serious statewide project moves forward without the explicit or implicit blessing of the Obas. As custodians of culture and heritage, they remain the ultimate bridge between the formal structures of government and the grassroots populace.
Their word carries immense weight not just in royal palaces, but in the bustling markets, in the churches and mosques, and in local community meetings.

​The Acting Chairman of the Ijebu Council of Traditional Rulers, the Orimolusi of Ijebu-Igbo, Oba Lawrence Jaiyeoba Adebajo (Ojuromi V1), spoke authoritatively on behalf of the council, lending his immense historical weight to the arrangement.
“We have listened to the governor. We believe in equity. What is good for Ogun East and Central must also be good for Ogun West. We give our blessing to this move in the interest of peace,” the monarch firmly declared.

​By taking the delicate case of the Ogun West governorship to the Ijebu Council first, Abiodun masterfully neutralised what would have otherwise been the biggest and most formidable opposition bloc. Ogun East has produced multiple governors and would naturally feel entitled to vie for another turn at the helms of power. But an explicit endorsement from the Ijebu Obas makes it exceptionally difficult for ambitious politicians from that specific zone to frame the new zoning arrangement as an act of injustice or exclusion. It becomes, instead, a binding royal decision made in the collective interest of state peace and harmony.
This is also why the governor deliberately chose to stress the universal values of fairness and equity rather than strict party loyalty during the meeting.
Traditional rulers are largely non-partisan figures who view the state through a paternal lens. Once they buy into a well-crafted argument centred on historical justice, disgruntled party leaders find it incredibly hard to oppose the arrangement openly without appearing deeply disrespectful to the traditional institution itself.

​However, this highly sophisticated arrangement is not entirely without its risks. Within the APC, other ambitious aspirants from Ogun West will undoubtedly argue that a managed consensus should not be used as a euphemism for political imposition. They will question why democratic due process and open primaries must be sacrificed at the altar of equity.

Meanwhile, from Ogun Central, some political actors may feel short-changed, arguing that the rotation should naturally return to them after Abiodun’s tenure. The opposition parties will also eagerly test and critique this narrative. They will publicly ask whether continuity simply means more of the same policies, and whether Adeola can truly maintain executive independence if he emerges through a process so heavily driven by an incumbent governor.

​Nevertheless, the early move to secure traditional and elite buy-in suggests that the APC leadership is working aggressively to close ranks before internal divisions can harden.
If the ruling party can continue to present a completely united front—with the governor, the state’s foremost Obas, and the consensus candidate all speaking with one synchronized voice—it will be extraordinarily difficult for any opposition movement to exploit internal party fractures.

​What is currently unfolding in Ogun State is a textbook case of managed succession in modern Nigerian politics.
It brilliantly combines regional zoning, traditional validation, and personal political ambition into one highly potent package.
For Abiodun, it is fundamentally about securing a lasting administrative legacy and establishing a soft landing for his next career phase in the Senate. For Adeola, it is about making history as the very first governor from the long-marginalised Ogun West senatorial district in the Fourth Republic. For the broader APC, it is about retaining executive power by selling the upcoming election as an undeniable moral issue rather than just another standard political contest.

The Ijebu Obas’ blessings have therefore done far more than just anoint an individual candidate; they have completely reframed the entire 2027 contest. It is no longer a question of which faction within the APC is the strongest. It has become a referendum on whether Ogun State is truly ready to correct decades of regional imbalance.

If that powerful message holds with the electorate, then both Abiodun and Adeola win. One gets to hand over power to a trusted ally and move to Abuja, the other gets to break a historic jinx and govern, and the party gets to keep its hold on Ogun.

*Ogbonnikan is a Senior Special Assistant (SSA) to the Ogun State Governor on Media