Atiku’s Selective Memory on Zoning, Coalition-Building and Competence Exposed

Charles Odibo

The attention of the Big Tent Coalition has been drawn to the statement credited to former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, in THISDAY, May 12, 2026, titled ‘Atiku: Zoning Self-Defeating,’ describing the insistence by many Nigerians on the continuation of presidential power rotation to Southern Nigeria in 2027 as “self-defeating” and “intellectually dishonest”.

According to the Director of Media and Communications of the Professor Utomi-led Big Tent Coalition, Charles Odibo, such statements would ordinarily not deserve a response but because of the dangerous attempt to distort political history, manipulate facts, and present personal ambition as national interest, it has become necessary to set the record straight.

Let us begin with the obvious truth that Atiku Abubakar has been one of the greatest beneficiaries and practitioners of zoning and rotational presidency in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. It is therefore astonishing that the same man who repeatedly relied on zoning to advance his own presidential aspirations now seeks to demonize the very principle simply because it no longer favours his personal ambition.

In 2014, Atiku Abubakar led some northern Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leaders to stage a dramatic walkout at the party’s national convention because they insisted the presidency should return to the north after the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan from the south. Shortly afterwards, Atiku defected to the All Progressives Congress (APC), a party that had expressly zoned its presidential ticket to the north ahead of the 2015 elections. 

He participated in the party’s primaries exclusively reserved for the north, except for the comical involvement of Rochas Okorocha. Atiku came a distant third in the primaries, behind Kwankwaso and Buhari. Again in 2019, Atiku emerged as PDP presidential candidate under a clear political understanding that power had returned to the north to enable the region complete its eight-year tenure. No Southerner defied that understanding as Atiku did in 2023 and is doing now. At no point during these periods did Atiku describe zoning as “self-defeating” or “intellectually dishonest”. Why has zoning suddenly become unacceptable now that it is the south’s turn? This is precisely the selective opportunism Nigerians can clearly see through.

The Facts on Rotational Balance

Atiku’s arithmetic on north-south power balance is not only intellectually dishonest and misleading but factually incorrect. He claimed that by 2027, the south would have held power for 18 years and the north about 10 years. The actual figures are straightforward:

South

Olusegun Obasanjo: 1999–2007 = 8 years

Goodluck Jonathan: 2010–2015 = 5 years

Bola Tinubu: 2023–2027 = 4 years

Total = 17 YEARS

North

Umaru Musa Yar’Adua: 2007–2010 = 3 years

Muhammadu Buhari: 2015–2023 = 8 years

Total = 11 YEARS

But even this misses the broader historical context. At the end of President Buhari’s tenure in 2023, the south had held power for 13 years, while the north had held power for 11 years – a manageable and acceptable balance within the spirit of rotational presidency. By convention and political stability, the south is expected to complete its full eight-year cycle before power rotates back to the north. That is the understanding that has helped sustain political equilibrium since 1999. More importantly, from independence till date, the north has ruled Nigeria far significantly longer than the south. Why then this sudden selective amnesia by Atiku Abubakar?

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar’s argument on “same region challenge” is self-contradictory with his argument that no southern opposition candidate can defeat a southern incumbent because “there is no precedent”. Yet in 2019, he contested against President Muhammadu Buhari, a fellow northerner. So what exactly is his argument? If it was legitimate for a northerner to challenge another northerner in 2019, why is it suddenly impossible for a southerner to challenge another southerner in 2027? This contradiction exposes the inconsistency and self-serving nature of his position.

Atiku also lectures Nigerians about “coalition-building” and “electoral arithmetic”. Ironically, current political realities show that among the leading presumed contenders for 2027, Atiku is the one without any viable pathway to victory. His desperate ambition is dead on arrival. The facts are clear:

2007 Presidential Election

Atiku polled roughly 2.6 million votes.

2019 Presidential Election

With Peter Obi as his running mate, Atiku polled nearly 12 million votes, recording massive support in the South-rast, South-south, and nearly 48% of votes in Lagos State. In fact, Atiku received more votes in the South-east than he received in his own North-east region.

2023 Presidential Election

Without Peter Obi in his coalition, Atiku’s votes collapsed to approximately 6.9 million votes.

These numbers tell a clear story that Peter Obi significantly expanded Atiku’s electoral reach in 2019. Without Peter Obi, where exactly is Atiku’s southern coalition today? Which southern state structure guarantees him 25% in any state across the seventeen states of the south? These are the hard electoral realities he conveniently ignores.

Obi–Kwankwaso Represents the Real National Coalition

Conversely, the emerging Obi–Kwankwaso alliance represents the most organic and balanced national coalition currently visible in Nigerian politics. It brings together a strong southern grassroots movement; a formidable northern political structure; youth mobilization; urban middle-class support; and grassroots populist energy nationwide. This is what real coalition-building looks like and not elite transactional politics recycled every election cycle.

On Competence: Atiku Should Be Careful

Atiku’s attempt to frame the debate around “competence” is particularly ironic. Compared to the other leading contenders in both 2023 and 2027, Atiku is arguably the least experienced in exercising actual executive authority. He served as vice-president — a position that exercises delegated powers at the discretion of the president. By contrast, Peter Obi served as executive governor with full constitutional authority and accountability, and has successfully built many businesses across different sectors. Rabiu Kwankwaso served as executive governor and federal minister with direct executive responsibilities.

Even within the Nigeria Customs Service, Atiku did not rise to the highest operational level (Comptroller-General) before leaving public service. So Nigerians are entitled to ask: What exactly is the basis of the competence argument? Competence is measured not by rhetoric, but by demonstrable governance outcomes, fiscal discipline, institutional reform, and prudent management of resources.

The Bigger Issue: National Unity and Fairness

The principle of rotation is not about sentiment, it is about national inclusion, stability, trust and fairness in a deeply plural country. Atiku has repeatedly embraced zoning whenever it advanced his ambition, and rejected it whenever it constrained his ambition. This is not statesmanship, it is opportunism. A leader genuinely committed to unity would understand the importance of allowing every region feel a sense of belonging within the national arrangement. 

Instead of constantly attempting to truncate the rotational understanding whenever it is the south’s turn, true patriots should focus on strengthening national consensus and democratic stability.

Nigerians are Wiser Today

Nigerians are no longer deceived by selective principles and convenient morality. The issue before the country today is not merely who wants power but who can unite the country, build a broad-based national coalition, inspire trust across regions, and mobilize organic grassroots support. Above all, Nigerians now earnestly seek the leader who has the demonstrable competence, compassion, and credibility to rebuild Nigeria. On these questions, Nigerians are increasingly making up their minds, and no amount of revisionist history can alter the facts.

* Mr Odibo is the Director, Media & Communications, The Big Tent Coalition