‘Nigeria Resilient to Global Shocks, Focused on Inclusive Growth’
In this interview on the side-line of the just concluded IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun said Nigeria’s reform programme is beginning to deliver stronger macro-economic stability, improved investor confidence, and greater resilience to global shocks, even as authorities acknowledge short-term inflationary pressures on households. He also spoke on other pertinent issues on the economy. Eromosele Abiodun and Nume Ekeghe repsents excepts:
Can you give us a brief of your deliberations at the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings?
The 2026 IMF Spring Meetings have been held at a very challenging moment for the global economy, geopolitical tensions, uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and external shocks have renewed pressure on both developed and developing economies. It was therefore appropriate that this year we focused on building prosperity. For Nigeria, a range of micro fiscal policies led and steered through this process by His Excellency, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, GCFR. We are firmly committed to disciplined, credible policy as the foundation for resilience, for growth, and for long-term prosperity, which, in the end, means lifting Nigerians out of poverty.
Nigeria came to these meetings with a clear message: our reforms are durable and self-sustaining. We are more resilient to global shocks. We are focused on inclusive growth. Due to the reforms undertaken under the leadership of His Excellency, Nigeria is well positioned to withstand external shocks such as the one we are witnessing at this time. Across our engagements this week, there was strong recognition and commendation, and Nigeria’s reform programme has been strengthening our economic outlook and restoring confidence. And as I said, this has put us in a stronger, better position to withstand the ongoing Israel–Iran conflict, as we now operate market-reflective foreign exchange and petroleum products pricing systems. The economy is adjusting relatively smoothly, without destructive controls, without unsustainable subsidies, without rapid loss of reserves, according to the information and data available. This improvement in resilience was widely acknowledged all through the week at the various meetings, including at the IMF, development partners, and bilateral counterparts that we met.
We were also very clear that the main near-term risk from the current global tensions is inflation, particularly through energy prices, logistics, food, and fertilizer costs. And these pressures affect both households and businesses, particularly the most vulnerable households. The response remains targeted and fiscally responsible. We are working on initiatives, as directed by His Excellency, Mr. President, including scaling social protection and enhancing agriculture intervention programmes while maintaining reform discipline. The mandate given is to come up with policies and initiatives that help to ameliorate the cost of living. Recent fiscal policy measures, including targeted tariff adjustments on selective items, were designed to alleviate rising price pressures. We will not return to broad, inefficient subsidies, as they undermine credibility and long-term stability.
The macro-economic indicators support this story. Economic growth has strengthened to about 4 per cent. Foreign exchange reserves have hit $50 billion, providing strong support for imports. Inflation, while still a concern, is broadly on a downward trajectory. Regarding public debt, it does remain sustainable, with debt-to-GDP ratios below 40 per cent. These reforms are also beginning to translate into stronger domestic productive capacity, increasing private sector confidence in the economy, as demonstrated by flagship investments such as the Dangote Refinery, Shell’s $20 billion investment commitment, and others. These underscore how policy reform is creating space and setting the stage for large-scale private sector-led industrial transformation. The medium and small scale are also not left out, in the sense that incentives for them to invest and produce goods and services have improved. Their business environment and incentives to invest have been heightened and made much more attractive. Importantly, Nigeria’s message in Washington wasn’t just about stability; it was about growth. We made it clear that our reform agenda is now transforming from stabilisation towards growth acceleration. We are moving forward with confidence investment, inclusive growth, and job creation with a medium-term growth ambition of about 7 per cent, driven by reforms in power, agriculture, transport, infrastructure, digital innovation, and human capital. Our engagements reflected these priorities. There was support for Nigeria’s priorities in human capital. Discussions with the IMF focused on sustaining reform momentum and macro stability. Conversations with the IFC and other partners highlighted growing investor interest in energy infrastructure, agribusiness, and digital innovation.
We also showcased practical platforms for delivery, energy access through Mission 300, with Nigeria already delivering approximately 3.6 million new connections to people who did not have electricity before. Stronger agricultural value chains, innovative financing solutions, and the mass savings initiative will ultimately crowd in private capital at scale some of the practical ways in which we are delivering growth to the Nigerian economy. We also reiterated our support for reform of the global financial system, essentially to lower the cost of capital for developing countries. His Excellency, Mr. President, has intervened quite robustly in discussions on ratings and how they elevate the cost of capital for developing countries. We seek a system that rewards credible policy action and better reflects the realities of developing countries, which are now largely impacted by global political tensions outside of their control. The overall message from the Spring Meetings is encouraging. Nigeria’s global economic standing is improving. Our reform story is being taken seriously and indeed used as an example. Our resilience is better understood, and our investment case is strengthened, with confidence returning at a faster pace.
As we conclude these meetings, we do so with confidence and clarity. The reforms of His Excellency, Mr. President, have been, in some ways, difficult, but they have been necessary. They have built a more stable, more resilient, and more credible Nigerian economy, and they are laying the foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth that will drive industrialisation, produce jobs, and pull millions of Nigerians out of poverty in the medium term. We commit to working assiduously with our development partners to seek out programmes, initiatives, and projects that will deliver much-needed resources through affordable funding mechanisms. We will continue to highlight the immense opportunities Nigeria presents to the international investment community, the domestic investing community, and Nigerians in the diaspora, all in an aim to attract investment and develop programmes that build on stabilisation and deliver sustainable and inclusive growth for all Nigerians in a shared prosperity environment.
Inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent in March this year, up by 0.32 per cent from February. How is Nigeria dealing with this development?
Yes, there was a decline in March, but you must look at where we are coming from over 12 months earlier. I know, we look to what the central bank has been done in building up reserves and so forth. But you know, the biggest enemy of growth and common man is inflation. Everybody knows. And to have consecutively for over 12 maybe 14 months, brought down inflation, I think, is what’s been pointed to by those who present awards to central bank governors. It has been highlighted by our development partners, multilateral, bilateral, the ratings agencies, because it is one thing to try to implement that mandate, which is commonly, as we know, monetary authorities, is to bring down inflation. Even today, the discussion has become of getting inflation below or at its target. So, you know, Governor after Governor spoke about it today, and the reason is this: if you are normally fighting inflation, it will mean that interest rates will have to go up in order to squeeze out that excess that is causing prices to rise without the commensurate increase in output. So that means that the investment environment is constrained. So normally you don’t get growth and reduction in inflation. We have had consecutive reduction in inflation and acceleration in growth. It points to the fact that the monetary and the fiscal authorities have somehow between them contrived to really cooperate in a way which has really benefited and strengthened the Nigerian economy. So, we all are hoping and praying that what is causing this current shock and inflationary pressure can be dealt with diplomatically, so that we don’t have inflation coming back and increasing. Rather, we look for it to return to the downward trajectory, which will really lead us to a good place inflation, more fiscal space for government and more room for the private sector to invest.
In light of ongoing global economic volatility and geopolitical tensions, how resilient is Nigeria’s economy to external shocks, and what evidence supports its ability to withstand such pressures?
On the issue of are we strong enough to withstand the shock, well, to date, I think the evidence speaks for itself. You have currently very constrained supply of petroleum products around the world. We all know why. Twenty percent of the world’s oil products pass through the Straits of Hormuz, which means that for some countries, it meant shortages, it meant queues, it meant rationing, it meant price controls.
And in Nigeria, it is the market that regulated the shock. So, it was the pricing mechanism, pricing of petroleum products, pricing of foreign exchange or transactions in that market that regulated what happened. That shows strength, that shows resilience in Nigeria. Yes, there’s an issue of inflation which has to be dealt with separately, but I think it proves beyond doubt that Nigeria has to date been strong enough to withstand the shocks.
If you go and analyse, take away the major reforms that have been put in place, market pricing of petroleum products, market pricing, rationing of foreign exchange, rationing of petroleum products at below market prices, what that would have meant now, it would have been no foreign exchange in the market, it would have been no petroleum products in the market and chaos it would have caused.
So sometimes, when you avert these difficult situations, it means that you don’t reflect enough on what if Mr President had not implemented this reform program. Nigeria would have been in a very difficult place, much more difficult than some of the other countries that we are seeing. So yes, we are a net exporter of petroleum products, but we do have the policies in place that have allowed us to date, without aggressive interference or relapsing into a subsidy regime, to cope so far with the exogenous shocks, which, as we keep saying, affect Nigeria disproportionately. And I think finally, it’s important to see that one of the important fallouts of the interactions that we are having, apart from learning and understanding how best to cope going forward with a scenario where conflict continues, what Nigeria has done and is doing, what it means for other African countries, has also come to the fore. Many countries are looking and trying to learn from Nigeria’s trajectory of macroeconomic reforms, which have a balance that allows sustainability of the effort, and they are consulting with us. So, we have a major responsibility, not only to get it right for ourselves, but to get it right for our sub-region and even our continent.
Given the significant increase in revenues to states following recent macro-economic reforms, including subsidy removal, what additional measures should state governments adopt to sustainably grow internally generated revenue while strengthening infrastructure and social safety nets?
On the financial condition of the state, one of the commitments of Mr president, was to fiscal federalism, was to the sanctity of keeping to the rule of law, and what that meant was, giving the state what was due to them under the fiscal rules, and as a result, Governor after Governor has mentioned, partly as a result of the macro-economic reforms, such as the removal of subsidy, how they are getting double, triple what they were previously getting from the Federation account. There are one or two that may have had deficit, but they had a 3.1 per cent budget surplus.
They pay all their budgetary expenses and will still have a surplus. So they are in a relatively strong position, notwithstanding that they have also reported very, very strong IGR performances. They have been able to invest in technology, invest in facilities that allow them to collect even more and so they presented very strong fiscal positions.
I think you can as well recommend to them what more can be done legitimately by providing parking services and improving traffic flow and so forth. I think that the states are in a good position, and what should be required of them is to do even more in terms of two things, infrastructure, which creates the basis for growing their economies across the board and allows other players in and secondly, social safety nets should be encouraged to identify the most vulnerable in their communities and to provide them with support.
Given that the impact of reforms has increased cost-of-living pressures in the short term, how is the government mitigating these effects while ensuring that the long-term benefits of the reforms are achieved?
Yes, we clearly admit, and it is evident to everyone, that the costs of reform are front-loaded. Inflation rises at the outset before it begins to decline. As inflation comes down, the impact on the cost-of-living eases, and people begin to feel that life is more affordable. That is why this metric is so critical. By the time inflation reaches single digits, the difference will be unmistakable. That is why this battle is so important to win. In the meantime, Mr. President has directed that the issue of cost-of-living pressures, arising from the recent energy crisis and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, be addressed. We have already begun implementing direct support in conjunction with the World Bank, and I am confident this will be extended and possibly broadened beyond the current target numbers.
Similarly, in agriculture, there is an initiative to support farmers as they prepare for the coming planting season. Whether it is the cost of fertilizer or other inputs, measures are being put in place. This was a recurring theme in several briefings: countries with fiscal space must strengthen their social safety nets in a direct and targeted way for the most vulnerable. Those without such space must reprioritise. In all cases, the message is clear, there is an inflationary spike driven by recent global events, and the most vulnerable must be supported.
This aligns with the approach of institutions like the IMF, which has spoken about emergency response funding of about $50 billion. Such support is intended for those who need it most. As a net oil exporter, Nigeria is not in the same category as low-income or more vulnerable African countries that require such assistance, and we are positioned to cope through our own measures.
