Confidence Without Competence Raises Concerns in Nigeria’s Agribusiness Investment Boom — Anani Ferdinand

Tolulope Oke

Nigeria’s fast-growing agribusiness sector is attracting increased investor interest, but according to Anani Ferdinand, a Real Estate and Agro Investment Expert, there is a growing hidden risk: inexperienced operators presenting overly optimistic projections to secure funding.

In recent years, agriculture has emerged as a key focus in Nigeria’s push for economic diversification, drawing both local and foreign investors eager to tap into rising food demand and the promise of strong returns. However, this surge in interest has also led to an influx of new agribusiness founders, many of whom lack the technical and operational experience required to manage large-scale agricultural ventures.

Ferdinand notes that a growing number of these entrants rely on simplified business models and inflated assumptions when pitching to investors. Polished financial projections often suggest rapid growth and high profitability, but may not fully account for the complexities of agriculture, including weather variability, pest outbreaks, fluctuating input costs, and unstable market conditions.

“Agriculture is not a predictable industry,” Ferdinand said. “When projections are built without real field experience, they can create a false sense of certainty that exposes both founders and investors to significant risk.”

For investors—particularly those unfamiliar with the agricultural landscape—such projections can be highly appealing. However, when underlying assumptions prove unrealistic, projects can quickly encounter setbacks. Poor harvests, logistical bottlenecks, and unexpected price shifts often reveal gaps between projected outcomes and actual performance, leading to financial losses and strained partnerships.

Ferdinand also highlighted concerns around the inefficient use of capital, noting that funds entrusted to inexperienced operators are sometimes mismanaged due to poor planning, inadequate technical knowledge, and weak record-keeping systems. In some cases, resources intended for long-term growth are diverted to address immediate operational challenges, further destabilizing projects.

Beyond individual ventures, repeated failures are beginning to affect broader investor confidence in the sector. Ferdinand warned that if such trends continue, they could discourage future investment, limiting access to funding even for experienced and credible agribusiness operators.

There are also ethical questions surrounding the practice of presenting ambitious projections without sufficient expertise to support them. While not always deliberate, overstated expectations can border on misrepresentation, raising concerns about transparency and accountability in investor engagements.

Ferdinand emphasized that success in agriculture requires patience, adaptability, and a deep understanding of on-the-ground realities. Unlike more predictable industries, agriculture is subject to multiple uncontrollable factors, making risk management and gradual scaling essential.

To address these challenges, Ferdinand called for a shift in approach among both entrepreneurs and investors. New entrants, he said, should focus on capacity building, hands-on experience, and smaller-scale operations before seeking major funding. At the same time, investors must strengthen due diligence processes by assessing not only business plans but also the experience and operational capabilities of founders.

He also advocated for increased collaboration, urging investors to provide not just capital but also mentorship, technical support, and ongoing oversight to improve project outcomes.

As Nigeria continues to position agriculture as a cornerstone of its economic future, Ferdinand stressed that sustainable growth will depend on aligning ambition with competence. While confidence remains a valuable trait in entrepreneurship, he warned that without the backing of practical experience, it could become a costly liability in an already unpredictable sector.