Goldman Sachs Lowers Q2 2026 Brent Oil Price Forecast to $90

• ExxonMobil briefs NUPRC on planned multi-billion-dollar FID 

• Says Bosi project may attract fresh $16bn capital

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja and  Peter Uzoho in Lagos

Goldman Sachs has trimmed its second quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and U.S. crude to $90 and $87 a barrel, respectively, after the U.S. and Iran agreed to  a two-week ceasefire.

Previously, the bank forecast Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to average $99 and $91 a barrel, respectively.

“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” the bank said in a note.

Brent crude oil prices are down over 11 per cent so far this week amid hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen after the U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to the ceasefire with Iran.

However, prices rose on Thursday on concerns that supply from the key Middle East producing region might not fully resume amid doubts about the ceasefire holding and as the crucial strait remained restricted.

Goldman kept its third-quarter forecast unchanged at $82 for Brent and $77 for WTI, and for the fourth quarter at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI, a Reuters report said.

The bank also said risks to its price forecasts remained skewed to the upside, reflecting the potential for longer lasting disruptions and more persistent crude production losses.

In a severe case, where the ceasefire does not hold and with persistent Middle East production losses of around two million barrels per day, Brent could average closer to $115 in the fourth quarter, the bank said.

Goldman also lowered its second-quarter European benchmark (Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price forecast to 50 euros per megawatt-hour (EUR/MWh), from 70 EUR/MWh, on the assumption of gradual normalisation of LNG flows through Hormuz from mid-April.

However, if LNG flows are significantly delayed or production infrastructure is damaged, prices will likely go above 75 EUR/MWh, Goldman added.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil briefed the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on its plan to invest in multi-billion dollar deep-water projects.

The oil major unveiled its plans when it visited the NUPRC headquarters in Abuja as part of activities to mark 20 years of Erha deep water project.

In his remarks, Senior Vice President, Deepwater, ExxonMobil Upstream Company, Mr. Hunter Farris, said the oil major was encouraged by Nigeria’s improved investment climate, hence its decision to “renew our vows to Nigeria”.

Specifically, Farris stated that the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) on Erha had been extended to 2042 and the company was doing a lot of life extension works to get the Erha FPSO back to maximum performance.

Besides Erha, he said ExxonMobil was gearing up for potential new investments on Usan, which entails “drilling a handful of wells”, as well as the Owowo deepwater project.

On the Owowo project, Farris said, “There is about a billion barrels of developed resource, of between $7 billion and $8-billion-dollar project, that we are progressing, looking into an FID as early as next year.”

Farris also spoke on the Bosi oil and gas field adjacent to Erha, which he said had the potential of attracting fresh capital of between $15 billion and $16 billion if the company was to develop a new FPSO and new pipelines.

The ExxonMobil executive said the proposed investments in Nigeria were evidence that the company was “getting back in business and we’re serious about what we’re doing”. He stated that the company was keying into the golden age of deep-water or the rejuvenation of deep-water in Nigeria.

Farris commended Nigeria’s improved regulatory environment, which he said had tremendously improved the ease of doing business.

Responding, Chief Executive of NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, expressed excitement over the company’s fresh commitment to Nigeria.  “To hear that FIDs are likely next year is very exciting and rest assured we are willing to support you,” Eyesan stated.

She said the commission will continue to encourage and safeguard petroleum investments, especially those that were in the interest of the Nigerian people.