Report: Economic Productivity Rebounded in February as PMI Reached 53.2

Dike Onwuamaeze

Nigeria’s economic productivity returned to growth in February at 53.2 after deteriorating to 49.2 in January.

This is according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of Stanbic IBTC Bank for the month of February 2026, which stated that, “Renewed rise in new orders fed through to an accelerated increase in business activity.”  

It said: “After dipping below the 50.0 no-change mark in January, the headline PMI recovered from the reading of 49.7 to 53.2 in February.  As such, the latest data pointed to a solid monthly improvement in the health of the private sector. Except for January’s blip, business conditions have improved continuously since December 2024.”

It added: “The rate of growth in output among Nigerian companies regained momentum in February, after having eased in January. Business activity was up markedly, and to the largest degree in four months. Output has risen continuously since the end of 2024. Panellists often reported higher customer numbers, with new product offerings and competitive pricing also helping to support growth. A rebound in wholesale & retail activity meant that all four monitored sectors recorded a rise in February.”

The PMI further reported that an improvement in the strength of the currency helped lead to an easing of inflationary pressures, with both purchase costs and output prices rising at the slowest rates in just over six years.

It said new orders returned to growth in February, with anecdotal evidence pointing to improving customer demand and better product affordability.

The report said, “The rise in new business, higher customer numbers and new product offerings helped lead to a rejuvenation in growth of output, which increased markedly and at the fastest pace in four months. All four monitored sectors saw activity rise as wholesale & retail posted a renewed expansion.”

The growth momentum also buoyed employment as, “Higher new orders led firms to expand their staffing levels again, and at the fastest pace since last October. Employment has now increased in nine consecutive months.”

The PMI stated that “A stronger currency led to a marked easing in the pace of purchase cost inflation in February. The latest rise in purchase prices was the weakest in just over six years. Where inflation was recorded, panellists linked this to higher prices for animal feed and raw materials. Meanwhile, cost-of-living payments to workers meant that staff costs continued to rise.”

It added, “With the rate of purchase cost inflation softening, firms also raised their output prices at a much weaker pace. Here too, the rate of inflation was the weakest since January 2020.”

Commenting on the PMI’s report, The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr. Muyiwa Oni, said; “After the dip seen in January, Nigerian private sector returned to growth, with the headline PMI settling higher at 53.2 points in February from 49.7 in January. This was in line with higher customer demand, which drove higher new product offerings at competitive pricing. Accordingly, output (55.8 vs January: 50.2) regained momentum in February while new orders (55.5 vs January: 49.9) also increased markedly in the month.”

According to Oni, “The wholesale & retail sector, which had dipped in January, returned to growth, thereby ensuring that all the four monitored sectors by the survey increased in February.

“In addition, local currency appreciation helped to support softer input and output prices in February, as the naira has been trading below 1400 against the USD consistently since 29 January.

“Strengthening external account, higher offshore FX flows, and improvement in remittances continue to support higher FX supplies with the CBN also stepping in by buying USD in the FX market to moderate the pace of local currency appreciation.”

He projected that the Nigerian economy is on track to grow by 3.86 per cent y/y in Q12026 and we still see real GDP growth at 4.1 per cent y/y in 2026.

He said, “The government has been visible in infrastructure, livestock development, easing trade constraints, and attracting investments in oil & gas and manufacturing. Aside from that, the Dangote refinery is expected to continue to have forward-linkage impact on other sectors of the economy.

“Additionally, likely lower interest rates in line of these factors, we see more sectors contributing to real GDP growth rate in 2026 compared to 2025, likely translating to an improvement in the quality of lives of the citizens with lower inflation and exchange rate stabilization should support private consumption and business investments in 2026.”