Nwaochei: Three Million Barrels Push Central to Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Stability, Energy Security
Mr. Francis Nwaochei is the Chairman, Society of Petroleum Engineers Nigeria Council, a critical oil and gas professional group. In this conversation with Peter Uzoho, Nwaochei talks about the upcoming 2026 Oloibiri Lecture Series & Energy Forum, current reforms in Nigeria’s energy sector, Nigeria’s quest to surpass three million barrels per day oil production target by 2030, amongst other issues. Excerpts:
Nigeria is targeting over three million barrels per day in oil production. Beyond the numbers, what does this target mean for national economic stability and energy security?
Nigeria’s drive to surpass three million barrels per day(bpd) oil production by 2030 is not merely symbolic; it is central to strengthening macroeconomic stability and national energy security. At current production levels of approximately 1.6–1.7 million bpd, including condensates, fiscal revenues remain highly sensitive to oil price shocks, reserve fluctuations, and planning uncertainty. Achieving and sustaining three million bpd would create more stable revenue streams to finance infrastructure, healthcare, education, and economic diversification.
Increased output would also secure feedstock for domestic refineries, reduce fuel imports, and expand gas-to-power supply. With disciplined asset optimization, digital innovation, and coherent policy alignment, this ambition is entirely attainable.
The theme of Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum (OLEF) 2026 emphasises harmonising digitalisation, capital, and policy. Why is policy alignment now more critical than ever for Nigeria’s oil and gas sector?
Nigeria’s oil and gas industry is at a decisive inflection point: technology and capital alone cannot deliver results without enabling policy, and aligning these forces is now urgent. The OLEF 2026 theme underscores that sustaining production beyond three million barrels per day will depend on intelligent optimisation of existing assets using digital twins, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-driven maintenance, and strategic data management. However, fragmented regulation and inconsistent frameworks deter long-term investment. Policy must incentivize innovation, streamline approvals, and ensure regulatory stability. Through SPE Nigeria Council platforms like OLEF 2026, stakeholders converge to harmonize digitalization, capital, and governance—unlocking efficient operations, stronger returns, and durable national value.
What specific policy reforms are still required to fully unlock Nigeria’s upstream production potential?
With the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021 and recent Executive Orders on direct remittance and cost discipline in place, the priority is rigorous execution. The framework is structurally sound; success now depends on governance discipline, institutional capability, and transparent performance metrics. Strict compliance with approval timelines, activation of digital investment incentives, innovation-friendly joint operating structures, and strengthened asset security are critical.
While inter-agency coordination has improved, capacity gaps remain. Through research papers, stakeholder workshops, and OLEF 2026, the SPE Nigeria Council will advance practical, evidence-based strategies to reinforce implementation and sustain reform momentum.
In a competitive global energy market, what must Nigeria do to attract and retain long-term investment in oil and gas?
Nigeria must intentionally position itself as a global technology leader in energy. The trajectories of China and India show how sustained STEM investment drives scale and competitiveness, while the United States of America demonstrates the power of technological dominance. Nigeria must therefore move beyond revenue-focused policy and cultivate world-class technical expertise.
As the 2025 Licensing Round attracts significant capital, lessons from past bid underperformance must inform a more enabling technical environment, prioritizing rigorous technical evaluations before commercial bids to unlock up to two billion barrels of oil equivalent. With $5.3 billion in 2025 inflows and $8 billion in recent FIDs, Nigeria can further win by aligning digitalization, ESG standards, and stable fiscal frameworks, an objective central to OLEF 2026.
How can government create greater confidence for investors amid global energy transition pressures?
By framing the energy transition as a strategic opportunity rather than a constraint, Nigeria can strengthen investor confidence. Government signals matter: maintaining fiscal stability while introducing targeted, time-bound incentives for flaring reduction, gas monetization, methane management, and digital efficiency will accelerate lower-carbon operations. Ongoing reforms under the PIA and recent Executive Orders reflect this pragmatic direction. Equally critical are transparent revenue systems and credible decarbonisation pathways that position
Nigerian barrels as responsibly produced. Through technical committees and industry forums, SPE Nigeria Council advances science-based collaboration, digital monitoring standards, and operational best practices—demonstrating that production growth and responsible development can progress together.
What role should fiscal stability and regulatory clarity play in helping Nigeria achieve its production and revenue goals?
Treating the energy transition as an opportunity requires clear macroeconomic discipline and coherent energy and fiscal policies, including targeted incentives for flaring reduction, gas monetization, and methane management. Initiatives such as the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme, awarding permits to 28 companies and targeting $2 billion in investment while significantly reducing emissions, alongside the Upstream Petroleum Decarbonisation Template effective January 2025, demonstrate practical progress. The ongoing PIA review and direct-remittance directive further enhance transparency and investor confidence.
Through a science-driven platform, the SPE Nigeria Council supports digital monitoring standards and best practices that transform compliance into competitive advantage, strengthening long-term capital attraction and sustainable energy leadership.
To what extent is coordination between government agencies and industry operators affecting production growth today?
Coordination between regulators and operators has improved steadily, easing bottlenecks that delay well interventions, facility upgrades, and new developments. Reforms and the NUPRC’s Project One Million Barrels initiative have accelerated approvals, reactivated dormant assets, and lifted production toward 1.8 million bpd. However, security and community-related disruptions still require deeper collaboration.At OLEF 2026, stakeholders will examine whether post-PIA frameworks enable intelligent operations. Through joint technical committees, shared digital systems, and structured escalation channels, SPE Nigeria Council members help strengthen alignment—unlocking material production gains within the near term.
Do you believe current policies sufficiently support indigenous operators, who now control a significant share of Nigeria’s assets?
Current reforms have produced historic progress, with indigenous operators now delivering over 50 per cent of national output after significant onshore and shallow-water divestments by IOCs—adding nearly 200,000 bpd. This marks a decisive shift in sector leadership.Sustaining competitiveness requires deliberate policy backing. Performance-driven local content reforms highlighted at Nigeria International Energy Summit seek to cut costs and boost capacity. Expanded financing access, structured technology transfer, and stronger digital and ESG capabilities remain essential. Through targeted training and technical platforms, the SPE Nigeria Council strengthens indigenous participation across the value chain.
As Nigeria pursues higher production, how can policy makers ensure that growth aligns with global environmental standards and climate commitments?
Embedding environmental performance into the definition of “new barrels” ensures production growth is inseparable from measurable sustainability outcomes. Policymakers can mandate flaring reduction targets, digital methane monitoring, and associated gas commercialization as conditions for field approvals. This aligns with the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme, where permits were issued to 28 companies targeting major gas capture, emissions reduction, power generation, and investment inflows, alongside the Decade of Gas agenda and NNPC’s Gas Master Plan expansion targets. SPE Nigeria Council members are deploying AI-driven emissions tracking and digital leak detection to deliver verifiable ESG results. Responsible growth is not optional—it is the only credible pathway to sustained three million bpd production leadership.
What policy incentives could accelerate responsible operations, reduce emissions, and promote gas development as a transition fuel?
Targeted fiscal incentives are critical to accelerating gas development and emissions reduction. Accelerated depreciation for gas infrastructure and digital monitoring systems, royalty relief tied to verified flaring elimination, and tax credits for CCUS pilots can materially shift investment behaviour. Recent Value-Added Tax (VAT) waivers on liquefied natural gas (LNG, compressed natural gas (CNG), and clean cooking equipment, alongside proposed royalty incentives for marginal assets, reinforce this direction and complement the Decade of Gas and NGFCP objectives.
Prioritising domestic gas supply, pipeline expansion, and processing capacity strengthens power, petrochemical, and industrial linkages. Through OLEF 2026, SPE Nigeria Council experts can help structure bankable, fiscally balanced incentive frameworks.
How can improved oil sector performance translate into broader economic development — jobs, infrastructure, and industrial growth?
Improved operational performance combined with deeper local participation creates a strong multiplier across Nigeria’s energy value chain. Each incremental barrel drives upstream employment, expands midstream assets, and strengthens downstream industries, including the Dangote Refinery, reducing import dependence while sustaining skilled jobs. Performance-driven local content reforms highlighted at Nigeria International Energy Summit reinforce in-country value retention and industrial capacity.Through scholarships, certification programmes, and technical mentorship, the SPE Nigeria Council builds sector-wide competence. Digitalization further integrates SMEs, positioning the industry as a catalyst for broad-based industrial growth.
What key policy conversations do you expect OLEF 2026 to influence at the national level?
OLEF 2026 is strategically positioned as a premier forum where policy ambition meets technical execution. It will focus on post-PIA optimization, smarter fiscal and contractual frameworks that properly value digital assets, and integrated security strategies to safeguard critical infrastructure. The conference will generate actionable white papers and communiqués to inform the ongoing PIA review and the 2027 budget cycle. Convening regulators, operators, financiers, and technical leaders in Abuja, OLEF 2026 aims to accelerate Nigeria’s progress toward sustainable three million bpd production—serving as a catalyst for responsible growth and long-term national prosperity.
