How Iran War Impacts Global Tourism

The war between United States/Israel and Iran is taking a heavy toll on global tourism, writes Charles Ajunwa

The Middle East has been turned into a war theatre where human lives are no longer sacred since the United States and its ally, Israel, on February 28, attacked Iran on suspicion that the Islamic Republic was on the verge of producing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles that could pose grave danger to the entire world. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and others were killed in the early Saturday morning attacks.

The killing of Khamenei and subsequent destruction of vital infrastructure inevitably forced the Iranian government to resort to retaliatory attacks against Israel and Gulf States considered allies of the United States, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Saudi Arabia and others.

The ongoing war has brought tourism in the Middle East to its knees as thousands of flights and holidays have been cancelled. The raging war between US/Israel, and Iran is also having its toll on global tourism.

According to Euronews Travel, Iran’s war risks £40 billion loss in Middle East visitor spending.

It reported that governments have issued ‘no-go’ warnings or advice against all but essential travel for countries including Israel, the UAE, and Qatar, and a wide corridor of airspace remains closed in the region. Currently,  travellers in tourism hotspots like Dubai and Doha are scrambling to get home on the limited number of rescue flights now being operated.

US President Donald Trump on Monday said the campaign in Iran had been projected to last four to five weeks but could “go far longer than that”.

Before the war in the Middle East and Gulf Region, Head of Marketing for the Middle East Travel Alliance, Ibrahim Khaled, a B2B company working with international tour operators and travel agents in the region, painted a good picture of growth. “We’ve been seeing steady (visitor) growth year over year, especially with all the new tourism investments happening across the region,” he said.

“Saudi Arabia is currently at about 10 per cent, but it’s growing incredibly fast since they opened up to leisure tourism in 2019. It’s definitely our most exciting up-and-coming destination.”

But the war between US/Israel and Iran has halted this trajectory. “For places that the US and UK governments have put on no-go or no-fly lists, we’ve unfortunately seen a ton of cancellations,” Khaled added. “Flights are disrupted, and trips to those specific areas are pretty much on hold.”

Also, a report by Tourism Economics on projections for the impact of the war on regional tourism tallies with the travel alliance’s outlook.

“We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11 per cent-27 per cent year on year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13 per cent growth,” said Director of Global Forecasting, Helen McDermott and Senior Economist, Jessie Smith.

“In absolute terms, this would mean a range of 23-38 million fewer international visitors compared to our baseline/ previous forecast, and $34bn-$56bn (£29bn-£48bn) loss in visitor spend. This includes expected lingering sentiment impacts beyond the immediate conflict period.” The impact on tourism demand of this conflict, according to them, will be larger than that of the conflict last year.

It noted that this is due in large part to the retaliatory strike from Iran on neighbouring GCC countries, which are more established tourism destinations, as well as the wider airspace closures across the region than last year.

“Given the widespread retaliatory strikes by Iran over the weekend, sentiment effects are likely to be more widely spread across GCC countries,” the report said.

Tourism Economics also highlighted the Middle East’s role as a global transit hub, with its airports accounting for around 14 per cent of international transit activity.

The report said this would inevitably lead to knock-on impacts outside of the region, according to the group. “The current disruption will affect travel flows, which typically transit through the Middle East hubs, including major routes between Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.”

However, Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of the World Travel and Tourism Council, said that “travel and tourism has consistently demonstrated its resilience in the face of global challenges,” adding, “As a vital force for connection, economic stability and mutual understanding, the sector continues to adapt and respond responsibly during periods of uncertainty.”

Reacting to the war between the US/Israel and Iran, tourism expert and Founder of Akwaaba African Travel Market, Mr. Ikechi Uko, said, “For me, war everywhere is bad and it’s unnecessary. But you know, we are not politicians and we are not leaders. They had their reasons for going to war. For those of us in the travel and tourism industry, you could see the consequences of these events happening in the Middle East.

“In Berlin, you need to see the number of aircraft that are parked at the tarmac both on Frankfurt and everywhere. There is travel chaos and tourism is the biggest business in the world and you could see the effect it is having on so many people’s businesses.

“ I went round the travel expo – ITB Berlin (International Trade Business) 2026, so many of those countries that normally would have been here in their large numbers cannot even move. It’s incredible, and it’s sad. The world just have to learn to do things properly.”

On how the war in the Middle East affects tourism promotions in Nigeria in particular and Africa in general, he said, “For now, Nigeria and Africa are safe. Flights are flying and I’m able to fly through an African airline to Germany, and people can move around. A lot of the Gulf carriers have parked their aircraft in Kenya and Egypt.

“So Africa is still open, but we can’t move around to the Middle East. And quite a lot of their people have cancelled their travel plans. A lot of Doha and Lebanon trips, I know operators who have cancelled quite a lot. But this allows Africa to attract more people as Summer is coming. The millions of people who normally would go to the Middle East is an opportunity for them to come to Africa.”

On whether Africa has facilities to take in those leaving the Middle East and Gulf Region, Uko said, “Nigeria is not yet at that level to be a replacement to Dubai, Doha, or Beirut. But there are people that we can get. I know Kenya, Egypt, South Africa, Tanzania, Seychelles, Mauritius and Morocco will have a sold-out season because they offer immediate replacement. But Nigeria and West Africa our products are cultural and we don’t compare in those kind of tourism that people go to do in Dubai. But we are getting there. Slowly, we are building up and ranking up with the environment.”

On whether there will be penalties for attacks against airports, hotels, and other tourist locations considered safe havens in international law, he said, “I think war is never good. You can’t defend one and condemn the other.

“Someone burnt a school with 167 girls, burnt a handball team and killed 47 players. And if you now say someone else is bombing hotels, what of the guy who burnt schools? So both sides are wrong. Civilians should never be targets in a war, and hotels are usually safe places. Journalists stay in hotels, and they are preserved safe environment. But the war in the Middle East has been going on for the past five years; they target everything, and nothing is safe. Journalists, hotels, hospitals, and schools are targeted. It’s a senseless war.”

In the ongoing war, he said, there is little the World Tourism Organisation (WTO) could do in terms of sanctions.

“The WTO I don’t think have anything to do now except to advise people to stay safe and avoid those areas. You don’t know who is going to be dragged into the war. You saw how Cyprus has been dragged into the war. You don’t know who else could be dragged into this war. So the best thing is for people to avoid the whole Middle East environment and some part of South Mediterranean and other places for now. If the war keeps escalating, you might have what we call asymmetric warfare that goes beyond borders and starts doing more terrorism to countries that they think are friendly, and that is when it gets worse.”

Speaking on how to grow tourism in Africa to meet international standards, Uko said, “Africa is slowly recalibrating – Morocco, Egypt, and Rwanda are actually doing very well in the upper echelon of the market. Kenya still plays a very good role in what it’s good at and is trying to do more. Infrastructure from what I have seen in Ethiopia, I was there last month. It’s incredible how they have turned Addis Ababa. You wouldn’t believe how Addis Ababa looks now. So, Africa is doing the right things and Nigeria is pursuing the same goal. Ghana and so many other countries are moving in the right direction and hopefully, we will get there soon.”