Ogun 2027: The Yayi Consensus and Strategic Roadmap to Creekside Capital

Olanrewaju Fatunmbi

There is an uneasy calm within the Ogun State chapter of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC)—a classic case of still waters run deep. The Abiodun administration’s succession plan has become a high-stakes chess match where the silence of key players speaks louder than the rhetoric of agitators. The Ogun West factor remains the elephant in the room, with Yewa-Awori groups pushing aggressively for a zoned ticket. While the Governor, Prince Abiodun’s silence fuels speculation and keeps his lieutenants anxious, second-tier aspirants and interest groups are increasingly vocal, testing the waters of zonal representation.

​Nonetheless, the political leadership in Ogun West is firm in its quest for a power shift, signaling a departure from the fragmented approaches of the past. At the centre of this dynamic is Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola (aka Yayi). His massive “West-to-West” movement and recent public endorsements—including from the Forum of Traditional Rulers—suggest that Ogun West is consolidating its resources behind a single, high-capacity candidate early. This unity significantly reduces the ability of outside power brokers to employ divide-and-rule strategies.

​By publicly insisting on Ogun West’s turn, Yewa/Awori leaders are signaling that they will only negotiate from a position of total regional unity. This is the checkmate move many expected. By bringing the Yewa Traditional Council and the Awori Obas together to build consensus, they have effectively shifted the conversation from who will represent the West to how to achieve statewide acceptability.

​This collective action by the monarchs changes the political calculus in several key ways. First, it strips away the old tactics of the past. Historically, Ogun West’s greatest weakness was its inability to present a united front, allowing outside interests to sponsor multiple sons of the soil to cancel each other out—as seen in the 2011 Olurin/Isiaka and the 2019 Akinlade/Isiaka splits. With the Obas’ formal blessing, any other aspirant from the zone now risks being labeled an outcast or a spoiler.

​Secondly, the declaration is a direct message to the Governor Abiodun. While the Governor has maintained silence to retain executive leverage, the traditional institution has filled that vacuum. For the Governor to pick a different successor, he would now have to openly disagree with the united traditional leadership of an entire senatorial district—a risky move for any politician.

​The Obas’ united voice adds further strength to the organic Yayi Movement gaining momentum across the three senatorial districts. Senator Adeola’s profile as a three-term Senator with a massive war chest and national connections—evidenced by Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele’s recent affirmation of his competence—makes him a formidable choice. The Obas are essentially backing the horse with the strongest legs and the deepest pockets.

​This historic meeting between the Yewa Traditional Council, led by HRM Oba (Dr.) Kehinde Gbadewole Olugbenle (Olu of Ilaro and Paramount Ruler of Yewaland), and the Awori Obas has been commended by the Ogun West Professionals for Yayi. A statement signed by the group’s Media Relations Officer, Dr. Morakinyo Sola Oloyede, noted that the initiative represents a sharp departure from divisive politics. “This bold move signifies a new approach and positions the district for success,” the group stated.

​While reminding the traditional rulers of the need to seek the support of their counterparts in other districts, the group also urged Community Development Associations (CDAs), political actors, and trade associations to engage statewide stakeholders. “All hands must be on deck to rally the people of Ogun State toward supporting Senator Adeola, ensuring the district is seen as more determined than ever to occupy the coveted seat in 2027,” the statement added.

​Beyond the Yewa/Awori people, Ogun West’s quest for governorship slot resonates across different sections, including non-indigenous associations residing in Ogun State. Recently, leaders and members of the association convened a unity gathering at the Palace of Sariki Hausawa of Ogun state, Alhaji Ibrahim Hassan where they reaffirmed their support for Adeola.

Comrade Gilbert Anthony JP, the Coordinator of Non-Indigenous Support Group For YAYI, who spoke at the event, noted the contributions Senator Adeola had made toward the welfare of non-indigene and his inclusive initiatives. He cited his personal experience as one of the beneficiaries of a sponsored pilgrimage to Jerusalem, describing it as a testament to purposeful leadership that recognizes and supports diverse communities.

Drawing from his over 40 years of residence in Ogun State, Gilbert Anthony JP emphasized that recognition, inclusion, and access to opportunities had strengthened the bond between non-indigenous residents and the state. He encouraged members to remain grateful, united, and forward-looking.

The Seriki Hausawa of Sagamu, Alhaji Inuwa Garba — assured the gathering of continued co-operation and pledged support for initiatives that benefit the community, emphasizing unity and collective progress.

However, the Yayi Consensus has only cleared the field in the West. In the Ogun Central and East, an uneasy calm is maintained by heavyweights who have yet to concede. These potential spoilers are largely waiting for a definitive signal from the Governor’s office.

​Ogun Central remains a significant threat due to its high voting numbers and historical sense of entitlement to power. If the Governor decides that Yayi is too independent, he might draft a loyalist from the Central as an alternative. Furthermore, while former Governor Ibikunle Amosun has been quiet, his political machinery remains intact, leading to speculation that he could support an Egba candidate—or a rival Yewa candidate—simply to checkmate Yayi’s influence.

​In Ogun East, some power brokers are pushing for the ticket to remain in the zone or go to a direct proxy. Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Mr Tokunbo Talabi, is often rumoured as a potential successor who would ensure the Abiodun legacy. His candidacy would be a direct challenge to the West-to-West narrative.

​Compounding this is the movement for Governor Abiodun to run for the Ogun East Senate seat currently held by Gbenga Daniel. If Abiodun moves to the Senate, he will require a successor he can trust implicitly. Yayi’s massive, independent-based makes some in the Abiodun camp nervous about a potential loss of influence.

​In the current power equation, Governor Abiodun is in a tight spot. While his supporters have declared support for his 2027 Senatorial ambition, he has yet to officially bless a successor. If Ogun West stays united, he faces two choices: align with the West to secure his legacy and ease his transition to the Senate, or back an outsider and risk a full-blown party insurgency mirroring the internal warfare of the Amosun era.

There is a strong movement already gaining public traction for Governor Abiodun to run for the Ogun East Senate seat currently held by Gbenga Daniel. If Abiodun takes the Senate seat, he needs a successor he can trust absolutely. Yayi’s massive independent base makes some in the Abiodun Camp nervous that they might lose influence once he takes over.

Regardless, there is a need for collaboration between Ogun West and the two other zones. Engaging Ogun East and Ogun Central is not just polite—it’s politically mandatory. ​Politics is ultimately a game of mathematics. To win a gubernatorial election, a candidate needs a simple majority of the total votes cast and at least 25 percent of the votes in two-thirds of the local governments.

​Ogun Central and East hold a huge chunk of the registered voters. ​You cannot ignore these voting blocs and expect to cross the finish line, regardless of how united Ogun West is.

​​There is often a subconscious or conscious fear that if a new zone takes power, they will divert all state resources to their own backyard to make up for lost time. ​By engaging the other districts, Ogun West can build a narrative of inclusive growth. Doing so allows leaders to reassure the East and Central that an Ogun West governor is a governor for the entire state, not just a sectional champion.

​​A Governor cannot function in a vacuum. To pass budgets and execute policies, they need the support of the House of Assembly. The majority of seats in the House are held by representatives from the other two districts. ​Building bridges now ensures that if an Ogun West candidate wins, they have the political capital to actually govern effectively from Day one.

​Nigerian politics often relies on informal zoning or rotational arrangements. ​If Ogun West engages the others and gains their blessing, it creates a sense of moral obligation for the future. ​It also transforms the agitation from a struggle against others into a partnership with others.

​In a democracy, you don’t take power; you negotiate it. Ogun West has a compelling case for equity, but that case is only saleable when the other two districts feel they are stakeholders in that success rather than losers of a power struggle.

To build a bridge across the Ogun River and beyond, the message needs to shift from “It is our turn” which can sound exclusionary to “It is our collective progress” which sounds invitational.

​​The goal is to frame the Ogun West governorship as a state-wide solution, not a sectional trophy. As Ogun West Professional for Yayi rightly suggested, there is a need for ​Town Hall meetings with traditional rulers, including the Alake and The Awujale, youth summits, and collaborative business fora. For Ogun State to remain the Gateway State, we need political stability. By supporting Ogun West, Ogun Central acts as the elder statesman and kingmaker, ensuring no part of our state feels marginalized.

​The industrial corridor in Yewa-Awori is the gateway to our state’s wealth. Better leadership there means more revenue for the entire state, including the capital city, Abeokuta.

​For Ogun East, the progress made in the zone like the Gateway Airport needs a successor who understands the value of regional development. Ogun West is ready to partner, not compete.

Ogun West is home to the highest concentration of industries. A governor from this zone will prioritize the Ease-of -Doing-Business that benefits the entrepreneurs and investors based in the East. Unlocking the Agbara and Idi-Iroko economic potential benefits the entire state budget.

People support what they help to create. By asking the Ogun East and Central to help lead the transition, we make them co-owners of the Ogun West success story.

*Fatunmbi writes from Okeagbede, in Imeko-Afon LGA of Ogun state