Nigeria’s Trade with US Slips to $1.79bn Deficit from $1.45bn Surplus

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja 

Nigeria’s trade position with the United States has experienced a sharp reversal, moving from a surplus of $1.45 billion in 2024 to a deficit of $1.79 billion in 2025, according to the International Trade in Goods and Services data released by the United States Census Bureau (USCB). 

A THISDAY analysis of the data showed that the shift reflected a combination of rising US exports to Nigeria and declining Nigerian exports to the US.

Data from the Census Bureau indicated that total US exports to Nigeria increased from $4.29 billion in 2024 to $6.79 billion in 2025, representing a growth of approximately 58 per cent. At the same time, imports from Nigeria to the United States decreased from $5.74 billion in 2024 to $4.99 billion in 2025, a decline of around 13 per cent. 

Monthly figures showed that in 2024, Nigeria maintained a surplus with the US in most months. Significant deficits for the US were recorded in April ($338.4 million), September ($237.0 million), June ($182.3 million), and August ($152.1 million). Only February and November recorded modest US surpluses. Throughout the year, imports from Nigeria generally exceeded US exports, supporting Nigeria’s overall trade surplus of $1.45 billion.

In contrast, 2025 showed a largely different pattern. While January ($143.0 million) and April ($120.5 million) posted deficits for the US, the remaining months recorded consistent US surpluses, resulting in an annual reversal for Nigeria. 

Besides, March generated a $256.1 million US surplus, June $280.4 million, August $387.9 million, the largest monthly surplus, and November $263.2 million. The sustained pattern of surpluses contributed to Nigeria’s $1.79 billion deficit for the year, the analysis indicated.

The increase in US exports was a key driver of the reversal, with the year-on-year expansion in exports from $4.29 billion to $6.79 billion indicating significant growth in Nigerian imports from the United States.

On the other hand, Nigerian exports to the United States declined from $5.74 billion in 2024 to $4.99 billion in 2025. Oil and petroleum-related products dominated Nigeria’s export portfolio to the US. Changes in production levels, operational constraints, or adjustments in global oil supply and pricing may have contributed to the lower export figures.

Global energy market conditions likely influenced US import patterns. The United States increased its domestic crude oil production and diversified supply sources, which may have reduced reliance on Nigerian crude. These developments coincide with increased import of crude oil from the US by the Dangote refinery.

The monthly breakdown pattern showed that Nigerian export performance varied throughout the year. Nigeria recorded its highest exports to the US in February ($478.6 million) and March ($491.2 million), while the lowest monthly export values were in April ($393.8 million) and October ($403.1 million). The pattern indicated fluctuations in supply, potentially reflecting seasonal production changes or operational disruptions.

In the same vein, exchange rate movements within Nigeria also played a role, as changes in the naira’s value relative to the US dollar could affect the volume and cost of imports from the country, contributing to rising US exports. 

In all, the data showed that US exports to Nigeria in August reached $830.1 million, the highest monthly total for the year. This indicated that single-month surges can significantly affect the overall trade balance.

In contrast, in 2024, the trade balance had been more evenly distributed, with US deficits concentrated in April ($338.4 million) and September ($237.0 million), while other months showed smaller variances. Nigeria’s surplus of $1.45 billion for the year reflected the consistent predominance of exports over imports.

Also, the reversal in 2025 highlighted changes in trade flows, as against a permanent shift in economic fundamentals. US exports rose steadily across the year, while Nigerian exports declined relative to 2024. The net effect was a $1.79 billion deficit for Nigeria, mirroring the US surplus.

In the same vein, the trade data suggested that the shift is concentrated in a few sectors, particularly energy-related exports from Nigeria and machinery and industrial goods from the United States. 

Overall, Nigeria’s trade deficit with the United States in 2025 contrasted sharply with the surplus recorded in 2024, underscoring the sensitivity of Nigeria’s trade position to fluctuations in oil production, global energy markets, and large-value imports from the United States.