STABILITY FOR AFRICA’S AGENDA 2063 AND ISRAEL

CHUKWUEMEKA UWANAKA argues the need for strategic defence engagement with leading global defence countries  

“The attack was repelled through the joint efforts of the Russian Ministry of Defence’s African Corps and the Nigerien armed forces…Moscow strongly condemns this latest extremist attack,” (Russia’s Foreign Ministry, February 2, 2026) 

The quote above from the Russian Foreign Ministry, following the January  29, 2026 large scale attack on the Diori Hamani International Airport and the military Base Aérienne 101 in Niamey, six miles  from Niger Republic’s presidential palace by a jihadi Islamic State (IS) group, underscores a recurring critical point- the geopolitical nature of contemporary security and stability across Africa, and how African governments are increasingly relying on non-African countries for state stability. Given that Africa’s developmental goals as encapsulated in the African Union (AU) ‘Agenda 2063’ require long-term capital- which is normally risk averse, it necessitate the need for the continent’s leadership to explore cost-effective and tested defence partnership options that can enhance state sovereignty. And it is this need for affordable and proven security options that brings into view, Israel’s emergence as the world’s eighth largest exporter of arms.  

The Fragile State Index (FSI) provides data on global state fragility, which shows that a significant number of the very fragile countries across the world are within the African continent. The ongoing civil war in Sudan- which has by some accounts claimed about 400,000 lives and displaced over 12 million people, is described by a United States (U.S.) Senior Advisor as ‘the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis’. U.S. President Trump has also been involved in mediating between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda, for an end to the conflict in eastern DRC that has claimed six million lives over 30 years via the ‘Washington Accords’. There are active combat situations in Somalia, intermittent conflicts in Ethiopia, while the Sahel is largely categorized as one of the most active terror zones globally.  Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the al-Qaeda linked coalition has since September 2025, enforced a crippling blockade on Bamako, the capital city of Mali. Supply routes for fuel, food, and and other economic essentials have been targeted, leading to shortages, blackouts, school closures and about 400 percent price hikes. In neighbouring Benin Republic, it took the intervention of Nigeria’s military to foil a military coup on December 7, 2025.  

The prevalence of these security challenges and what it means for continental development led the AU to launch the ‘Silencing the Guns in Africa’ initiative in 2013, with the aim to end wars, prevent genocide, and attain a conflict-free continent by 2020. This goal was however extended to 2030 due to ongoing instability, and was incorporated as a key pillar and flagship project of the AU Agenda 2063, the continent’s blueprint and master plan for transformation into a global powerhouse. Adopted on January 31, 2015 at the 24th Ordinary Assembly of the Heads of State and Governments of the African Union in Addis Ababa, Agenda 2063 encapsulates the economic, political and social goals of all African countries, and serves as the strategic framework for meeting the continent’s development aspirations.

The other flagship projects of Agenda 2063 include an integrated high-speed train network connecting all African capitals and commercial centres; the formulation of an African Commodities Strategy; the establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area; the introduction of the African Union Passport and visa-free movement of Africans; the construction of a third Inga Dam; the establishment of the Single African Air-Transport Market; and the establishment of an Annual African Economic Forum. Others include the establishment of relevant financial institutions such as an African Investment Bank, a Pan-African Stock Exchange, an African Monetary Fund, and an African Central Bank; a pan-African digital E-Network; development of an Africa Outer Space Strategy; the establishment of an African Virtual and E-University; continental cooperation on cyber security; establishment of a Great African Museum to preserve African cultural heritage and promoting pan-Africanism; and the compilation of an Encyclopaedia Africana as an authoritative resource on the authentic history of Africa and African life.

Therefore, an assessment of the flagship projects that will deliver the development aspirations contained in Agenda 2063 shows that they will require patient long-term capital. It is however known that patient capital does not dwell in conflict-prone areas, while sustainable investment is generally risk averse. This underscores the essential need for the continent to explore practical, affordable and proven defence and security partnerships, as an enabler for Agenda 2063.

With security as critical for Vision 2063 that requires long term capital, the data on global trends in the defence sector by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) comes in handy. Israel ranks as the eighth largest arms exporter in the world, after four consecutive years of record growth and a 13 percent increase from 2023, led to $14.8 billion of defence exports in 2024. A major driver of this growth is that Israeli systems are ‘battle-tested’, as its rockets, missiles and air defense systems accounted for 48 percent of total exports, alongside satellite/space systems at 8 percent, radar/electronic warfare at 8 percent, and manned aircraft at 8 percent. The country’s defence exports have more than doubled since 2019, as Europeans who are enhancing their ability to preserve their sovereignty for development increased their purchases from 35 percent in 2023 to 54 percent in 2024. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 23 percent, while countries under the Abraham Accords accounted for 12 percent. In addition to producing cost effective and battle-tested systems by companies such as Elbit Systems, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), and RAFAEL, Israel  with 3.1 percent of global exports should be an acceptable defence partner, given that it has no colonial record in Africa- unlike some of the other larger arms exporter.

Tellingly, one of the African country that partners with Israel for defence and security as a means of attracting and retaining investment for development, is Morocco. Morocco has been able to attract the type of high-end economic and industrial base envisaged by AU’s Agenda 2063. It includes an automotive manufacturing sector with global companies such as Renault-Nissan, while Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD has ongoing plans to commence manufacturing in the country. Global aerospace companies such as Airbus manufacture some of their components in the country, which also has a thriving electronics manufacturing sector. Morocco’s average life expectancy of 77 years is higher than the 64 years for Africa, and the country ranks high on the UNDP’s Human Development Index, with GDP per capita of $4,440 compared to average per capita of $1,930 across Africa.

One other example of the efficiency of Israel in Africa’s security sector is Cameroon. While she shares borders and neighborhood with Nigeria, Chad and Niger Republic that have been challenged by terrorism and insecurity for over a decade, Cameroon hardly faces terrorism attacks. Many records attribute this capacity to its security relationship with Israel, including training for the country’s Rapid Intervention Battalion (BIR). Therefore, while Cameroon with Israeli defense support remains stable, its neighbouring countries are experiencing various high levels of instability due to security challenges, which in turn curtails their ability to meet Agenda 2063 goals.

To further demonstrate the linkage between security and development objectives of AU Agenda 2063, we look at Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria. The rise of jihadi terror groups like Boko Haram in 2009 has had negative economic impact of $97.9 billion according to a UNDP 2019 report, with the country’s defence budget rising from $1.5 billion in 2009 to about $4.4 billion in 2025, but with proportional decline in budgetary allocations for infrastructure, healthcare, education and real sector of the economy. The country’s total budget estimate for 2026 is $41 billion, with debt servicing at $10.4 billion or 26 percent as biggest item, while $10 billion is to be borrowed.  The Security and Defence sector has $4.7 billion, which is bigger than infrastructure’s $2.5 billion, education sector’s $2.5 billion and $1.7 billion for healthcare. This fiscal contrast has contributed to decline as Africa’s largest economy in 2014 with GDP of $574 billion and per capita of $3,000, to 4th largest in 2024 with GDP of $252 billion and per capita of $1084. There was a period of significant improvement in anti-terrorism efforts between 2014-2015 due to the partnership between the Nigerian military and foreign private military partners, but the momentum was largely lost after the partnership was canceled later in 2015 by the then new government.

The suggestion on enhancing cooperation with Israel is not in any way, an assumption that all the security challenges on the continent are terrorism related. Indeed, a number of the countries facing instability require more of political reforms and inclusive governance, than military hardware as solution. The focus is however on terror-related insecurity, which has become more predominant. 

And this security partnership proposition is not oblivious of the dynamic relationship between Israel, some African countries and the AU. Though Israel had observer status with the preceding Organisation of African Unity (OAU), it was unable to retain its status and relations with the succeeding AU in 2002, due largely to Libyan pressure. It however regained its observer status in 2021, but subsequently lost it in 2022 due to reported influence from South Africa and Algeria. With the Palestinian question as a factor in this AU-Israeli relations, the pressing need for enhanced security provides a realist opportunity for the AU to structurally engage Israel in a way that is satisfactory to the Palestinians, while also meeting the continent’s security needs in an era where contemporary global geopolitical and geoeconomic events have led to significant changes in international rules-based-order (RBO). For clarity, the current proposition for Israeli defence partnership is based on the reliability, cost and efficiency of its weapons systems. In the event that other countries meet such milestones in the future, similar partnership options should be explored with them.

And Africa will not be alone in any realist approach to enhancing state stability and security. More stable and prosperous multilateral political groupings such as the European Union (EU), which the AU and Africa receive partnership and security support from, have become responsive to these changes in international RBO. The EU unveiled the ReArm Europe Plan worth $860 billion in 2025, while Germany (with its WW1 and WW2 history) has activated the Armoured Brigade 45 in Lithuania that will grow to a 4,800-strong combat force by 2027, the first of such foreign permanent combat deployment since WW 2.

The EU has signed the EU-Mercosur Agreement in January 2026 after 20 years delay, plus an EU-India free trade agreement in January 2026 after nearly two decades of negotiations. Canada in January 2026 entered into a ‘strategic partnership’ with Peoples Republic of China, just months after Prime Minister Mark Carney had described China as Canada’s biggest security threat in April 2025. All of these are responses to changes in international rules based order. Therefore, AU and Africa will be within bounds to reassess and improve defence relations with Israel as strategic response to rising instability that derails Agenda 2063. In era of changes to international RBO, Africa could be more vulnerable and unstable, and therefore require for realist strategic realignment, especially for peace, security and development.

While some countries on the continent have highlighted Turkiye as preference, given its status as an AU ‘strategic partner’, and military partner for Somalia, Mali and some other countries, it is important to spotlight some context. Türkiye recently in October 2025 signed a $10.7 billion contract with the United Kingdom (UK) to acquire 20 Eurofighter Typhoons, 4.5-generation fighter jets manufactured by a U.K., Germany, Italy and Spain consortium led by Britain’s BAE Systems, after Germany lifted its longstanding opposition to the sale of the jets. The first batch is expected to be delivered by 2030. But inherent within this decision are some geopolitical vulnerabilities of Turkiye, including having to wait for Germany’s approval, and also seeking to purchase 24 used fighter jets from Qatar and Oman, to cover its air superiority gaps. Turkiye’s 2024 announcement of a $7bn deal with the United States for 40 F-16s, may be facing delays. How much defence succor it can realistically provide the AU is therefore up for analysis. Turkiye is also facing U.S. sanctions for acquiring Russia’s S-400 air defense system in 2019, which led to its expulsion from the  F-35  advanced 5th-generation stealth fighter jet programme, despite Turkiye making more than 900 parts of the F-35. Africa should therefore be strategic in ensuring it doesn’t get caught up in defense sanctions and geopolitical limitations similar to Turkiyes’, which can hamper the ability of African states to enhance security for development.

In his response to the recent attack in Niamey, Niger Republic leader General Abdourahamane Tiani had stated that “we commend all the defence and security forces… as well as Russian partners who defended their security sector with professionalism”. This overt role of foreign military partners in attempting to preserve political stability within the continent, underscores the geopolitical nature of maintaining stability across some parts of Africa. For the African Union that identifies security as a necessary enabler for its Agenda 2063 development goals, there is the need for strategic defence engagement with leading global defence countries such as Israel, which manufactures efficient and battle-tested defence systems, as well as provides effective counter-terrorism trainings, as a means of enhancing the ability of African states to preserve state sovereignty. Contemporary changes to the international rules-based-order has led other continents like Europe with its ReArm Europe plan, to make the necessary strategic changes, for survival. Africa’s Agenda 2063 requires patient long-term capital investments, which however avoid unstable and insecure environments. Partnering with Israel for effective and efficient defence therefore provides Africa an additional opportunity for ‘silencing the guns’, as well as meeting the development objectives of Agenda 2063.

Dr. Uwanaka writes from African University of Science and Technology, Abuja. chukweks@yahoo.com