OPEC May Resume Oil Output Increases from April

Stories by Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja 

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters yesterday, as the group prepares for peak summer demand and price strength is bolstered by tensions over US-Iran relations.

The resumption would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and fellow members, such as the UAE, to regain market share at a time other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, contend with Western sanctions and Kazakh output is restrained by a series of setbacks.

Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman will meet on March 1.

The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

The Brent crude benchmark is trading near $68 a barrel despite speculation that a supply glut would suppress prices this year. That’s not far from a six-month high of $71.89 hit in January on tensions between the United States and Iran.

All three OPEC+ sources, who declined to be identified by name, said the eight members at the March 1 meeting were leaning towards a resumption in production quota increases from April. Three other sources familiar with OPEC+ thinking said they expected increases to resume in April.

No decision has yet been made and talks will continue in the weeks ahead of the March 1 meeting, two of the OPEC+ sources said. OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not reply immediately to requests for comment.

OPEC’s latest oil market forecasts show demand for OPEC+ crude in the second quarter falling by 400,000 bpd from the first three months of the year, but demand for the whole year is projected to be 600,000 bpd higher than in 2025.