Inside the Quiet Race of Lagos Governorship Hopefuls

It is becoming a saying that in Lagos, the tortoise does not announce its journey. Politicians understand that the race may be long, but the first to shout seldom arrives.

With 2027 in view, the contest to succeed Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has begun to crystallise. Across parties, familiar figures hover around the idea of succession. The APC field alone is expansive. Names with federal heft, technocratic polish, legislative experience, and dynastic resonance circulate in discreet conversations: Femi Gbajabiamila, Dr. Kadri Obafemi Hamzat, Senator Tokunbo Abiru, Dr. Maruf Tunji Alausa, Hon. Babajimi Benson, Akinwunmi Ambode, and even Seyi Tinubu.

The opposition is steadier, led by figures who contested in 2023 and remain visibly committed. Among these are Dr. Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor) and Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour (GRV).

However, this kind of visibility can be a liability in Lagos.

History supplies the subtext. In 2007, Babatunde Fashola emerged from relative obscurity while more voluble aspirants receded. In 2015, Akinwunmi Ambode, a technocrat without a flamboyant campaign, secured the nod. In 2019, Babajide Sanwo-Olu surfaced after an abrupt recalibration within party ranks. The pattern is not accidental. Lagos politics operates through a tight coterie where loyalty is currency, and discretion is strategy. Because early lobbying invites scrutiny, which breeds resistance, a tacit aspirant can appear more amenable to consensus than one who builds an independent apparatus.

Consequently, denial has become performative. Leading figures publicly insist they are focused on current assignments. Support groups test the waters, then retreat. Speculation persists, yet declarations remain sparse. When silence is applied, it is found to have acquired strategic value.

For opposition hopefuls, the calculus differs. Without access to the ruling party’s internal architecture, public positioning becomes essential. For insiders, the calculus is inverse: the less said, the less threatened.

Thus, the race unfolds in whispers rather than rallies. Billboards are scarce; denials are plentiful. In Lagos, succession is less a sprint than a filtration process.