Ukraine–Russia War: A Divided World and Africa’s Call for Peace

What initially appeared to be a conflict between neighbouring countries with a long history of political alignment—Ukraine and Russia—has evolved into a protracted war that has deeply divided the international community, with no clear end in sight. Although Nigeria, and indeed the entire African continent, have consistently called for a peaceful resolution, the conflict continues to generate far-reaching political, economic, and humanitarian consequences globally, Michael Olugbode reports.

The war between Ukraine and Russia has become one of the defining conflicts of the 21st century. What began as a dispute rooted in history, identity and post-cold war security arrangements escalated in February, 2022 into a full-scale invasion that has reshaped global politics, energy markets, food security and international norms.

While the battlefield lies in Eastern Europe, the consequences are global — and they are being felt sharply across Africa. From rising food prices and inflation to energy insecurity and diplomatic fragmentation, the conflict has reinforced a hard reality: modern wars rarely remain regional.

As the fighting drags on, the key question confronting the international community is no longer just when the war will end, but how — and whose interests will ultimately shape that ending.

Historical Roots and Security Tensions

Ukraine and Russia share deep historical and cultural ties tracing back to KievanRus’, the medieval polity centred in present-day Kyiv. Over centuries, Ukrainian territories shifted between European and Russian control, producing overlapping identities but also long-standing resentment.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine emerged as an independent state. Russia recognised that independence, but continued to view Ukraine as part of its strategic sphere of influence. Kyiv’s gradual movement toward the European Union and NATO — especially after the 2013–2014 Euromaidan protests — marked a decisive break from Moscow’s orbit and triggered Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

At the heart of the war lies a classic security dilemma. Ukraine seeks external guarantees to protect its sovereignty. Russia views NATO expansion toward its borders as an existential threat. These incompatible goals hardened into confrontation, culminating in the 2022 invasion.

A War of Attrition

Militarily, the conflict has evolved into a grinding war of attrition. Russia’s expectation of a rapid victory collapsed in the face of Ukrainian resistance and Western military support. Since then, neither side has achieved a decisive breakthrough.

Russia retains manpower and industrial capacity but is constrained by sanctions and logistical challenges. Ukraine benefits from Western backing and national resolve, but remains heavily dependent on sustained foreign assistance. The result is a prolonged stalemate in which territorial gains are incremental and costly.

According to Russian expert, Dr. Fiona Hill, “this is not a war with a neat military ending; it is a struggle over the post-Cold War order.”

Africa’s View: Between Principle and Survival

African countries have consistently affirmed respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but many have resisted being drawn into rigid geo-political camps. This position reflects lived economic realities.

Former Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama has argued that African diplomacy is shaped less by ideology than by vulnerability, saying “for many African countries, this war is not an abstract geo-political contest; it is about food prices, fuel costs and the survival of millions of people.”

African Union Commission’s former Chairperson, Moussa FakiMahamat, during AU-led peace outreach to Moscow and Kyiv, echoed this stance, noting that “Africa does not benefit from the prolongation of this war. Our interest lies in stopping the fighting, restoring grain flows and reducing global instability.”

Food and Energy Shockwaves

The war’s disruption of grain and fertilizer exports has hit Africa particularly hard. Russia and Ukraine together account for a significant share of global wheat and fertilizer supplies.

Former President of the African Development Bank, Dr. AkinwumiAdesina, warned that “the conflict triggered a food shock that Africa did not create but must now manage,” cautioning that high prices threaten to reverse years of poverty-reduction gains. In Nigeria, the impact has compounded inflation and worsened household hardship.

Energy markets have also been destabilised. Europe’s rapid move away from Russian gas pushed up global energy prices, affecting fuel-importing countries across Africa despite Nigeria’s oil-producing status.

Strategic Non-Alignment

Many Global South countries have responded through what analysts call strategic non-alignment — maintaining relations with both Russia and the West.

India’s approach illustrates this thinking. Indian Foreign Minister, SubrahmanyamJaishankar defended New Delhi’s stance by saying “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that its problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.”

The message resonates across Africa, where economic stability often outweighs bloc loyalty.

Why Peace Remains Elusive

From the Western perspective, the war is framed as a defence of international law.

U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken has argued that “allowing aggression to succeed would set a dangerous precedent, not only in Europe but globally.”

Ukraine maintains that compromise would reward force. President VolodymyrZelenskyy has insisted that “peace cannot be built on the division of our land or the suffering of our people.”

Russia, meanwhile, presents the war as a security necessity. President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed that “Russia was left with no choice,” citing NATO expansion. Analysts note that Moscow has tied the war closely to domestic legitimacy, making withdrawal politically costly.

According to Nigerian scholar, Professor AdekeyeAdebajo, “wars rarely end in total victory; they end when exhaustion sets in and negotiation becomes unavoidable.”

French strategic analyst, François Heisbourg similarly observes that “neither side can impose its will, raising the risk of a frozen conflict rather than a clear peace.”

Global South Mediation and the Likely Endgame

Brazilian President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has called for mediation by neutral states, arguing that “the world needs countries willing to talk to both sides and build a path to peace.”

African mediators share this view. A South African diplomat involved in AU consultations remarked that “dialogue does not mean surrender; it means creating space where guns no longer decide everything.”

Most analysts believe the war is unlikely to end with a decisive victory. Instead, a negotiated pause or frozen conflict — driven by fatigue rather than reconciliation — appears the most realistic outcome.

UN Secretary-General, AntónioGuterres summed it up starkly when he warned that “this war has no winners, only victims.”

Conclusion

For Nigeria and much of Africa, the Ukraine–Russia war is a reminder of how distant conflicts can deepen local hardship. It has exposed global inequalities, strained international norms and underscored the need for diplomacy over prolonged confrontation.

As long as major powers believe time is on their side, peace will remain elusive. But pressure from the wider world — especially from those bearing the indirect costs — will continue to grow, pushing the conflict, eventually, towards negotiation rather than endless war.