Five Exciting Events to Expect in 2026

Etim Etim writes about five interesting events that will shape the nation’s political landscape in year 2026.

Happy New Year! This will be a very big political year. There shall be party congresses, primaries, conventions, campaigns and more defections in 2026, but watch out for these five major political events that will grab national attention and dominate headlines for most of the year.

Number one: The entry of Seyi Tinubu into the Lagos governorship race in the second quarter would be one of the most controversial and divisive political events of the year; threatening to tear Lagos APC apart.  He would likely be chosen as a consensus governorship candidate, displacing heavyweights like Femi Gbajabiamila, the chief of Staff to the President, and MudashiruObasa, Speaker of the Lagos House of Assembly. Both men and other aspirants would be forced to withdraw from the race for the president’s first son, but the protests that would trail his emergence would be reminiscent of the DapoSarumi-Agbalajobi contest of 1991 in SDP.

Some would defect in protest to other parties and the ensuing battle would be fierce and combustible, fueling a strong possibility of the reenactment of the ethnic tensions that marked the last governorship election in the nation’s tiniest, but most populous state.

SeyiTinubu has the full backing of his father who has maintained a strong grip on Lagos politics since he was elected its governor in 1999. The President decides just about everything in Lagos and influences who gets what in the state. His words carry the weight of the law, and there’s no doubt that he would do everything to further tighten his grip on Lagos and deliver the state to his beloved son. 

Two, the ADC presidential primary would offer another interesting spectacle. After a long hesitation and careful deliberations, Peter Obi formally joined the party on New Year’s Eve to begin early preparations to challenge AtikuAbubarkar for its presidential ticket. He made the announcement at a rally in Enugu. He moved into ADC with Senator Victor Umeh (Anambra Central); Senator EnyinayaAbaribe (Abia South); Senator Tony Nwonye and other top politicians from the South-East. There were also many other South-East politicians who once dominated the politics of the region under PDP.

The contest between Obi and Atiku would be fierce. The former Vice President himself has been preparing for this for years. Rich and well-connected, he’s a veteran of many presidential races dating back to 1993.

Obi’s supporters will tout his youth, energy and zoning as his strong points. Atiku will rely on his Northern ancestry and support base, but the fact that he’s running against the well-established principle of rotation will cost him many votes.

On the other hand, Obi himself will have to convince a lot of people, especially Northerners that he would serve only one term if elected. If Atiku picks the ticket, he would gladly invite Obi to be his running mate. If Obi declines the offer, Atiku would find it difficult to find a better alternative as most potential picks have since defected to APC. But if Obi accepts to run with Atiku, President Tinubu would face another grueling electoral race. By all standards, ADC’s convention will be one of the most electrifying events of 2026.

Three, if the US continues to bomb terrorist positions in Northern Nigeria, there may be dramatic political implications. If the strikes end up reducing terrorist attacks and incidents of kidnappings and banditry to the barest minimum, Tinubu’s approval ratings would soar; but if high collateral damage is recorded and the criminals remain unfazed, the President would suffer severe rejection. Already, many Northern elites have spoken out against the US interventions as if they enjoy seeing innocent blood being spilt, while Christian leaders across the country have welcomed the strikes and praised the US President for coming to their help.

Four, Rivers politics is also one to watch in 2026. The truce brokered by President Tinubu between the FCT Minister and Governor Sim Fubara has broken down.  NyesomeWike has vowed to stop Fubara from seeking second term. The FCT Minister has begun a tour of the state to campaign for the President and whip up sentiments against the governor. Fubara is banking on the support from President Tinubu to secure a second term ticket under APC. It’s likely that Wike himself would defect to APC sometime in 2026, but will Tinubu allow Wike to import his troubles into APC? 

Five, Akwa Ibom politics will also offer another exciting story. With the defection of Governor UmoEno, the PDP has been emptied out and the state has suddenly become a one-party state. But former Governor Udom Emmanuel is still in the PDP, trying to plot a new direction. He made initial attempts at rebuilding the PDP in the state, convened meetings, established a caretaker committee to manage the party and even attended the party’s convention in Ibadan with some supporters from the state. He facilitated the selection of his ally, IniEmemobong, as an NWC member. But with INEC withholding its recognition for that faction of the party due to pending litigations, the former governor has been left in a limbo. Over the holidays, he sounded conciliatory.

In his Christmas message, he asked Nigerians to rally around President Tinubu to fight terrorism; but did not utter a word on his successor. He is however said to be talking to the AtikuAbubarkar group in ADC for a possible Vice Presidential ticket. A truly thrilling year is upon us.

-Etim writes from Abuja.