AN UNUSUAL SALESMAN

After relentless defence of President Bola Tinubu’s bold economic reforms, Abubakar Bagudu advocates for extensive grassroots governance, writes BOLAJI ADEBIYI

President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms have continued to garner praise from knowledgeable economic institutions and experts. On Wednesday, the World Bank published its latest Nigeria Development Update, reaffirming its view that the reforms have stabilised the country’s economy but expressing concern that the reforms’ benefits have yet to improve the people’s standard of living.

The bank’s update confirmed the enthusiastic and positive reports by Vice President Kashim Shettima and Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, at the recently concluded Nigeria Economic Summit Group, stating that the reforms have produced tangible results that have stabilised the economy and positioned it for development and inclusive growth.

Looking at the statistics, the optimism is justified. As of September, the economy had grown to N372.8 trillion from N309.5 trillion in 2023. The GDP has increased steadily at 4.3%, while inflation has decreased significantly to 20.12%. Revenue collection rose from N19.9 trillion to N25.2 trillion, with the tax-to-GDP ratio climbing from 7% to 13.5%.

Debt-to-GDP now stands at 38.8%, well below the 60% threshold set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act. Trade balance figures increased from N5.17 trillion in 2023 to N7.4 trillion. The country’s external reserves have surged dramatically from a modest $3.06 billion to $43 billion, and the current account surplus has grown by 6.1%. Meanwhile, the exchange rate has stabilised around N1,500/$1.

However, as the World Bank has correctly observed, these optimistic figures would be meaningless if they do not lead to an improvement in the living standards of the people, in whose interests the reforms were implemented. Fortunately, the federal authority is aware of this issue and has introduced remedial policy measures to address it. 

To mitigate the severe impact of the reforms at their outset, the federal government released 200,000 MT of grains for households; 225,000 MT of fertiliser and N200 billion for farmers to cultivate maize, rice, wheat, and cassava; N75 billion for 100,000 MSMEs; N50 billion for Nano businesses; N75 billion for manufacturers; and N100 billion for 3,000 gas-powered buses. It then issued wage awards and increased the minimum wage to N70,000.

It also reviewed the National Social Register for the conditional cash transfer to vulnerable people. According to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, in a recent report, five million households, translating to 25 million Nigerians, received N25,000 cash transfers, amounting to billions of naira.

One immediate effect of the reforms, particularly the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market, was a significant increase in the federation’s savings and available funds. Bagudu cited the figure as 340% during a recent meeting organised by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation in Kaduna. According to him, between May 2023 and June 2025, the total net statutory revenue and VAT allocation to States and Local Governments (excluding EMT levy, FX gains, and augmentations) more than doubled, rising from ₦458.81 billion to ₦991.81 billion. He explained that this reflects an increase of ₦533 billion or 116.17% across the federation.

A significant sum of N11.195 trillion was allocated to subnational governments between June 2024 and June 2025. While the states received a total of ₦6.492 trillion, the local governments were allocated ₦4.704 trillion. The idea is that although the Tinubu administration’s macroeconomic policies generate more funds, subnational governments should implement ameliorative measures to cushion the temporary, harsh effects of the reforms. This does not seem to have happened.

Over two years of mitigation efforts and additional funding have failed to effectively promote poverty reduction or alleviate the severe impacts of the reforms, highlighting the need for new ideas on how macroeconomic stability can benefit the people.

As the most passionate supporter of the reforms, even when it was unwise to do so, Bagudu has championed a shift from a top-down to a bottom-up economic policy approach. He, therefore, advocates for the economic revitalisation of the grassroots through support for economically active citizens at the lowest level of government, the wards.  

Believing that the difficult reforms have stabilised the economy for both domestic and foreign investment inflows, the minister responsible for coordinating the federation’s social and economic consensus thinks that the gains of the reforms will mean little to ordinary people unless they have a direct positive impact on their lives.

His new strategy, the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme, a comprehensive plan to boost economic activities, prioritise food security, and improve social protection sustainably at the lowest tier of governance across the federation, received approval from the president and the National Economic Council last month.

It is an ambitious programme aiming to identify 1,000 economically active individuals in wards with 50,000 people, and 2,000 in others with more than 50,000 residents, who will be supported with funds to invest in productive activities aligned with their skills.

The programme will subsequently benefit over nine million people across the 8,809 wards of the federation. To be funded directly from the Federation Account, the project represents another symbolic collaboration among the levels of government in a strategic move towards the nation’s double-digit GDP target.   

The programme goes beyond offering palliatives and seeks to enhance the productive capacity of economically active citizens at their base. Though not a novel idea, it will benefit from similar endeavours in India and China, where millions of people have been lifted out of poverty.

What is more important is the passion with which Bagudu is advocating for its realisation, using every forum to garner support. As the minister for bilateral economic relations, he used every engagement with development partners, including the World Bank and the United Nations Development Programme, to champion the revolutionary grassroots emancipation project.

“The objectives, among others, are to promote sustainable and inclusive growth at the ward level, which will contribute to national development,” Bagudu told the World Bank Country Director, Mr Matthew Verghis, at a recent meeting in Abuja, explaining, “This will support the $1 trillion GDP target by 2030 and help lift all Nigerians out of poverty.”

On Wednesday, he leveraged his address to the well-attended, prestigious policy think tank, the NESG, to advocate for the programme: rapid national development will remain hindered unless local administration, especially at the ward level, is structured to become a genuine engine of planning, investment, and transformation, where change is not just promised but realised.

Adebiyi is the media assistant to the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning